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11-27-2020, 5:00pm | #1 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #2112
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So The Stock Market Is A Touch Frothy These Days
Is anyone bailing ?
As of today's close, I'm 90% cash - 10% risky funds in my 401k, which is up 25% ytd, as of this morning. I suspect it'll be up ~26% at tonight's settlement. I'll take it ! I sold all of my stocks except for JFrog, which I will sell on Monday for $72.00 hopefully. Then I'll wait for a little correction. The Fed and monetary policy is allowing for stretched valuations, ergo records for the S&P and NASDAQ today. How long can it last ? The brokerages have to book their profits for the year soon, the unemployment numbers are going up again, and that nuke scientist was whacked in Iran today, so I'm packing it in for a bit. What are you thinking kids ? https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/...154200122.html Laugh all you want about the news source, but Muhammed El-Erain is one smart cookie. |
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11-27-2020, 5:20pm | #2 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #15
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I've gone the opposite way. I started buying long treasuries and gold in fall 2018 after the cycle peaked.
Sold last of long treasuries a couple of months back, sold remaning gold last week. Portfolio is more bullish than it's been since early 2018. 25% of overall portfolio still in int. term bonds in 403(b). Rest equities (& 1% bitcoin). +35% since Feb. 19th prior peak, QQQ is +25%. I've had a good year by virtue of being prepared for the crash. Still made mistakes though, and waited way too long to start buying. I only spent about about 20% of our cash/gold/treausry reserves buying stocks the week of the lows in March. Lesson I'm taking - when you get your price, buy. I was greedy and expecting more pain/tears/selling. Joe Biden is getting the Bill Clinton treatment - handed success on a silver platter. Economy will rip in 2021. Trump getting screwed. 0% chance the media will credit him with what he has set us up for coming out of this lockdown crap. Biden will **** the blue collar working class with amnesty and offshoring, but that won't hurt stocks. "Wealth gap" is going to start ripping again IMO. .02 |
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11-27-2020, 5:33pm | #3 | |||||||
Barn Stall Owner #2112
Fantasy Football Champ '14,'16,'20 Bantayan Kids '13
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Quote:
Luckily, my money was used wisely in the interim. |
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11-27-2020, 5:35pm | #4 | ||||||
Sparkles Flambeaux
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bulls make money
bears make money pigs get slaughtered as normal, fully invested for the long term, cash in hand for next year's spending. if i can average 6% each year, i'm good. since we spend about 3.5% each year. |
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11-27-2020, 5:38pm | #5 | |||||||
Barn Stall Owner #2112
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Quote:
You and I are the same age, so that would probably be a crucial number to know. |
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11-27-2020, 6:12pm | #6 | |||||||
Sparkles Flambeaux
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Quote:
my experience has confirmed that over the last 12 years. |
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11-27-2020, 6:14pm | #7 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #2112
Fantasy Football Champ '14,'16,'20 Bantayan Kids '13
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Posts: 42,428
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Thanked 10,608 Times in 6,384 Posts
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11-27-2020, 6:25pm | #8 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #89
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Not bailing out.... <Shrug>........not using what I've saved/invested.
Property management company takes care of our rentals. Still trying to figure out what to do with money I don't spend every month. Around 2k. Suggestions? |
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11-27-2020, 6:29pm | #9 | ||||||
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I pay people to make those decisions.
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11-27-2020, 6:52pm | #10 | |||||||
Sparkles Flambeaux
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oooh, ooooh, ooooh.... pick me....pick me!!!!! only a few things to do with money: spend it, save it, give it away. at present prices, that's about 2 cases of ammo a month. used to be about 9 |
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11-27-2020, 6:53pm | #11 | ||||||
Sparkles Flambeaux
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a recent uptick allowed us to sell a winner and we'll now pay off the home loan we took out to help pay for the shop.
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11-27-2020, 7:08pm | #12 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #89
Bantayan Kids '13
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11-27-2020, 7:27pm | #13 | |||||||
Barn Stall Owner #2112
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Quote:
Are you assuming a 3% return, per annum, on the remaining principal? That would seem to get you to 30 years. |
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11-27-2020, 7:35pm | #14 | |||||||
Sparkles Flambeaux
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Quote:
so, yeah, we all want 10-12% per year (that's what Dave Ramsey assumes ), but i'm ok with reducing risk and being happy with 6%. if you do it right, you get to a certain point where you can stop taking so many risks. risks have ups, and large downs too. i think i figured some time ago that if we averaged 6% long term, we'd end up with more than we started with and live nicely too. |
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11-27-2020, 7:42pm | #15 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #666
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I have absolutely no idea what I’m doing financially.
But I do get brokerage statements every month that I never open, so I got that going for me. |
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11-27-2020, 7:47pm | #16 | ||||||
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11-27-2020, 7:53pm | #17 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #2112
Fantasy Football Champ '14,'16,'20 Bantayan Kids '13
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: WHERE I LAY MY HEAD IS HOME - REHO BEACH DELAWARE
Posts: 42,428
Thanks: 6,374
Thanked 10,608 Times in 6,384 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $3043611
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11-27-2020, 8:00pm | #18 | |||||||
Barn Stall Owner #2112
Fantasy Football Champ '14,'16,'20 Bantayan Kids '13
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: WHERE I LAY MY HEAD IS HOME - REHO BEACH DELAWARE
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Quote:
For the past 5 years, I have averaged 12.5%. This year... 26%, so that'll bring the average up. I've had a couple years like this in the past, and a couple less than 5%. I just don't feel alive unless I have skin in the game. |
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11-27-2020, 8:04pm | #19 | |||||||
Sparkles Flambeaux
Barn Stall Owner #4 Barn Raising I,II NCM Supporter '13,'14,'15,'16,'17,'21 Bantayan Kids '13,'14,'15,'17
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Quote:
i need to run some numbers and see if it's wise to take money from my IRA, pay minimal taxes, and stash it elsewhere (taxable account), but if i'm clever, after that, any capital gains will be taxes at zero. |
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11-27-2020, 8:08pm | #20 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #666
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