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Old 09-15-2018, 2:03pm   #421
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Nevermind the fact the markets don't turn because of the date on the calendar.

Nothing alarming here: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/...i/current-data

Or here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI
Expect the usual year end.book in October but if the trend continues, I'm long as a mofo for the near future.
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Old 09-18-2018, 7:40am   #422
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As a shareholder, and as a normal human being who has to use the "services" of a bank, YES PLEASE.


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Old 09-20-2018, 7:29pm   #423
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What a day.

And re: "depth" or "breadth," RSP, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, is up 6% YTD. So it's not JUST a few high fliers driving all the returns. 6% is pretty respectable.

In other news our IRA contributions are on hold for a while now since we need a new damn air conditioner for our upstairs. Main unit for the downstairs is relatively new and a cadillac. Upstairs unit is original to the house - circa 1999. Fffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu....
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Old 09-20-2018, 7:33pm   #424
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What a day.

And re: "depth" or "breadth," RSP, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, is up 6% YTD. So it's not JUST a few high fliers driving all the returns. 6% is pretty respectable.

In other news our IRA contributions are on hold for a while now since we need a new damn air conditioner for our upstairs. Main unit for the downstairs is relatively new and a cadillac. Upstairs unit is original to the house - circa 1999. Fffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu....
Yep... What a day.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows, never mind records for the S&P and DOW.
I'm loving this.
Between the shorts getting killed on a weekly basis and the influx of 401k money, we are in a total sweet spot.
China can suck America's pee-pee.

I feel your pain.
I just put a new a/c unit in the house after mine stb too
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Old 09-21-2018, 8:48pm   #425
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:36am   #426
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I know we're riding high these days, and I personally am bullish on our immediate and longer term future, but I made a big change and simplified our portfolio and skewed more defensive.

The number of ETFs we had was ridiculous, and we were 100% aggresive growth with ETFs like ARKW.

I've always wanted to be as simplified as possible with things like Total Stock, but it wasn't possible to get the asset mix I wanted and keep things simple. Plus I still want some aggressive growth prospects.

I've been looking at Wellesley for a while, and took the plunge. Rather than have all these various ETFs, I picked the few big, stable, growth companies I like the most (AMZN, V, MA, AAPL, NVDA, GOOG) as well as Berkshire, and will allow them to be at most 10% of our overall portfolio.

Otherwise, most of our Vanguard assets are now in Wellesley (2/3 bond & treasuries, 1/3 defensive/income producing large caps). Using VINEX for international, and VIOO for small cap.

We now have a 4-fund porftfolio for 90% of our assets, with the rest in those few individual stocks. No more ETF trading. I was happy when Vanguard went commission free for all ETFs, but quickly realized it could/probably would be a curse in disguise for me since I have all the time in the world to trade being a stay at-home dad.

Our portfolio is now 80/20 stocks/bonds, and the equity portion is now 10% international and 20% mid/small cap. We are incredibly diversified. Our overall expense ratio across all holdings has been cut from 0.5% to 0.2%. Thanks to Wellesley we also have a bit of a skew toward large cap stocks that are not overvalued by any measure, have low PEs, and throw off dividends. And I still get that 10% slice to pick and choose with, but it's individual stocks so I have to pick only things I am willing to buy and HOLD for the long haul. No commission free trades.

State Street S&P 500 Index Fund (STFAX) - 45%
Wellesley (VWINX) - 35%
Vangaurd S&P 600 Small Cap (VIOO) - 5%
Vanguard International Explorer (VINEX) - 5%
Individual Stocks - 10% (AMZN, AAPL, BRK.B, GOOG, MA, NVDA, V)

Back-testing this portfolio, it has slightly outperformed the S&P, but done so with bonds, treasuries, mid and small caps, and international stocks all in the mix. And I can sleep easy no matter what happens, and my hands are a bit more tied and I can't screw things up easily by doing the #1 thing investors do that reduces their returns - TRADE.
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:46am   #427
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This article was posted after I made the switch, but it shows that through the Great Recession Bear Market and the ensuing Bull run so far, a combination of the S&P and Wellesley has nicely complemented one another and outperformed the S&P alone.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/420...vanguard-funds


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Old 09-28-2018, 10:21am   #428
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Will the S&P pull out a miracle and close above 2929, last Friday's close???
It ain't lookin' good, but I've seen bigger miracles....
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Old 09-28-2018, 7:11pm   #429
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Will the S&P pull out a miracle and close above 2929, last Friday's close???
It ain't lookin' good, but I've seen bigger miracles....
Stock Market Overview US Market Closed Sep 28,2018
Index Value Change Net / %
NASDAQ 8046.35 4.38 ▲ 0.05%

NASDAQ-100 (NDX) 7627.65 -1.92 ▼ 0.03%

Pre-Market (NDX) 7610.62 -18.95 ▼ 0.25%

After Hours (NDX) 7633.50 5.85 ▲ 0.08%

DJIA 26458.31 18.38 ▲ 0.07%

S&P 500 2913.98 -0.02 ▼ 0.00%

Russell 2000 1696.57 6.04 ▲ 0.36%


https://www.nasdaq.com/
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Old 10-01-2018, 8:15am   #430
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Unhappy

We're screwed.


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Old 10-03-2018, 4:18am   #431
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Care to elaborate?
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Old 10-03-2018, 1:30pm   #432
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In other news....

Quote:
Bilibili and Tencent Announce Equity Investment


Sounds to me we are getting close on a China trade deal
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Old 10-03-2018, 1:56pm   #433
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Care to elaborate?
It's a long running joke that fading Gartman's moves is the key to riches.

He's perpetually wrong.
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Old 10-03-2018, 2:41pm   #434
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It's a long running joke that fading Gartman's moves is the key to riches.

He's perpetually wrong.
Oh, ok. Gotcha.


Kind of like when Dick Morris makes a prediction about who will win an election.
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Old 10-03-2018, 5:52pm   #435
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If the Chinese agree on a trade deal, all bets are off.
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Old 10-03-2018, 6:09pm   #436
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S&P 2930 is big imo.
The market is still making higher highs and higher lows which is very bullish.
If the S&P can close over 2930 on Friday, we go up.
If the S&P closes lower than 2913, we could be in for a little downward trendage.
Like Polarbear said though....
If the China deal gets done, it'll be up, up, and away.

Uwwww !!! The Gartman contrarian play.....
There could just be some truth to that.
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Old 10-04-2018, 12:35pm   #437
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Uwwww !!! The Gartman contrarian play.....
There could just be some truth to that.

Like clockwork.


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Old 10-04-2018, 4:34pm   #438
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On the other hand, a record high was made for the Dow & S&P today and then the pull back. This has happened consistently for weeks now. It's called climbing the wall of worry.
Let's talk on Friday after the close. The S&P is only one point from Friday's close of 2477.
Remember... The trend is your friend but your heads up is much appreciated.
I'm predicting an October correction.
It must be October. The quoted post was posted on 8/8
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Old 10-04-2018, 5:35pm   #439
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btw...
For info sake.
The October "crash" thing has historically happened 57% of all the years that the stock market has existed. Not including when it was closed during WWII.

That is almost a tossup as to whether it will go down in October.
A caveat is; When it does go down in October, it goes down big.

I'm not saying that it will do that though, I'm just stating facts.

Tomorrow's close will tell the tale.
Another washout like today, and look out below... We could be in for a little correction.
The market looks a little long in the tooth at this point imo.
I'm holding for the time being though.
I wonder what Polar Bear's option tea leaves are saying.
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Old 10-05-2018, 2:42pm   #440
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