Meet the Newest Battleground State: Minnesota

[Will]

Meet the Newest Battleground State: Minnesota

In early August, The Washington Dispatch began its weekly swing-state and electoral college poll tracking model. 10 key states were identified as battlegrounds with the potential to go either way on November 6th based on polling data: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Based on state-level polling data, The Washington Dispatch is now adding Minnesota to the list of Battlegrounds that will be tracked for the purposes of the weekly electoral college tracker.

Minnesota has not been identified by most pollsters and pundits as a potential battleground state, however analysis of current polling data and past voting trends tells a different story.

Using the latest poll data and The Washington Dispatch's aggregation model based on Party Identification, Mitt Romney is within about 2 percentage points of Barack Obama in Minnesota, and holds the President about 2% below the 50% support threshold. This represents better performance for Mr. Romney than in some other widely acknowledged battleground states.



The political make-up of the Minnesota electorate has remained relatively stable over the past decade, with Democrats usually winning the turnout battle by around 4%. In addition, exit polling Party ID data over the past few elections in which exit polls have been conducted (none were conducted in Minnesota in 2010) has proven relatively accurate when compared to actual election results.



2004 exit poll party ID data overestimated John Kerry's victory by 2%, but the more recent 2006 Senatorial and 2008 Presidential exit polls produced far more accurate/predictive party ID data. Over the 3 elections, exit poll party ID data has, on average, predicted the Democratic margin of victory to within 0.56%, showing only a small, statistically insignificant overestimation in favor of Democratic candidates.

Minnesota has not voted in favor of the Republican candidate for the Presidency since 1972, which begs the question, why has Minnesota suddenly become a Battleground state?

The answer is that Mitt Romney is vastly outperforming prior Republican candidates among the state's self-identified independent voters.

Mr. Romney currently averages a 4% lead across state polls among Minnesota independents. In contrast, President Obama won independent voters by 17% in 2008, Senator Kerry won them by 13% in 2004, and Senator Klobuchar won the independent vote by a whopping 35% in the 2006 midterm elections.

The Washington Dispatch estimates that, based on current polling data in Minnesota, Mr. Romney would need undecided independents to break in his favor by a margin of 80% to 20% by election day in order to carry the state's 10 electoral votes, so an Obama victory remains probable. However, it is clear at this point in time that Romney is greatly outperforming recent Republican candidates for national office in Minnesota.

Meet the Newest Battleground State: Minnesota

[Taurus]

It was just a matter of time. What I find interesting is how the University of Colorado Prediction model has not changed since day one, even after this past week's trends were entered. It has showed Romney with 322 - 327 electoral votes since Romney locked up the nomination. ALL the polls are starting to move towards this prediction.

[mrvette]

Originally Posted by Taurus

It was just a matter of time. What I find interesting is how the University of Colorado Prediction model has not changed since day one, even after this past week's trends were entered. It has showed Romney with 322 - 327 electoral votes since Romney locked up the nomination. ALL the polls are starting to move towards this prediction.

Taurus, I don't get it, you don't sound like a radi-lib on here, what's with your avatar there,??

[Taurus]

Originally Posted by mrvette

Taurus, I don't get it, you don't sound like a radi-lib on here, what's with your avatar there,??

Sorry, the guys on the C4 Gen forum always change their avatars to something associated with Halloween, something scary or disgusting and that was the scariest and most disgusting avatar I could find. It's an inside joke and will be gone soon enough.

[Taurus]

Here's the University of Colorado prediction, 320 electoral college votes for Romney, updated approx weekly and almost unchanged since Romney got the nomination.




Has not been wrong since it was first used in 1980 and always been within 2%. It has predicted the shift we're seeing in the polls.

[Giraffe (He/Him)]

Meet the Newest Battleground State: Minnesota

Being a Minnesotan, this completely blows me away. This is a blue state. PERIOD. Or WAS a blue state.

[Sea Six]

Originally Posted by Thomas

Being a Minnesotan, this completely blows me away. This is a blue state. PERIOD. Or WAS a blue state.

*MinnesOHtah

[Giraffe (He/Him)]

Originally Posted by Sea Six

*MinnesOHtah

You betcha don't you knOw!

[Will]

Originally Posted by Taurus

Here's the University of Colorado prediction, 320 electoral college votes for Romney, updated approx weekly and almost unchanged since Romney got the nomination.




Has not been wrong since it was first used in 1980 and always been within 2%. It has predicted the shift we're seeing in the polls.

That's actually pretty interesting.

Out of the unlikeliest Romney state wins, I have him closest in Minnesota, then Pennsylvania, the New Hampshire, then Wisconsin, then Michigan.

A lot of pundits and pollsters have Michigan as a swing state, but not PA or MN. Yet I have both closer than Michigan, and this model has all 4 non-Michigan going to Romney.

I would be VERY interested to see their raw data and if they too have Romney closest in the same order I do.

[Taurus]

Originally Posted by Will

That's actually pretty interesting.

Out of the unlikeliest Romney state wins, I have him closest in Minnesota, then Pennsylvania, the New Hampshire, then Wisconsin, then Michigan.

A lot of pundits and pollsters have Michigan as a swing state, but not PA or MN. Yet I have both closer than Michigan, and this model has all 4 non-Michigan going to Romney.

I would be VERY interested to see their raw data and if they too have Romney closest in the same order I do.

There is a link to their methodology, I had it and if I can find it I'll post. Think about the look of this map though. If anyone would have said three months ago that NH, PA, WI or MI were in play they would have been called out of touch yet the polls are aligning themselves with this map.

I would love to see Obama's internal polls, you know they must predict a bad outcome if his pollsters have pulled out of FLA, NC and VA and I heard today they are preparing to pull out of NH and CO. Also, why else would he change from all negative ads to more Reganesque ads?

[DJ_Critterus]

Originally Posted by Thomas

Being a Minnesotan, this completely blows me away. This is a blue state. PERIOD. Or WAS a blue state.

You should be proud

[mrvette]

Originally Posted by Sea Six

*Minne-soda

SCREW THAT!!!! I like 32 oz size.....eff the .gov......

[Giraffe (He/Him)]

Originally Posted by DJ_Critterus

You should be proud

I'm mostly surprised. With the voting history of this state being what it is, MN must be pretty pissed off to become a battleground state.