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Old 12-03-2014, 5:41pm   #21
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Tim

You and your family get out of there before this thing hits. I am serious. Go to Cebu today.


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Old 12-03-2014, 10:46pm   #22
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Prayers sent. Hunker down.
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Old 12-03-2014, 11:52pm   #23
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Tim

You and your family get out of there before this thing hits. I am serious. Go to Cebu today.


Attachment 3063
There is nothing more valuable than your lives. I hate to see all of you go through this again. You will be in my thoughts.
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Old 12-04-2014, 12:06am   #24
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Wow, take care y'all!
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Old 12-04-2014, 12:21am   #25
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Damn, I didn't see how nasty this thing has gotten in the last day.
Sustained winds of 180 mph as of tonight.

Prayers for all folks in the way of that bitch. That's a LOT of wind/water.
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Old 12-04-2014, 4:38am   #26
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Tim

You and your family get out of there before this thing hits. I am serious. Go to Cebu today.


As of last night they were only calling for a signal 3 and we were talking about it some thinking this will be a breeze as compared to last years signal 5 Super Typhoon.

I see now that they say this one has increased to a Super Typhoon also.

This map above that you found shows it is going to turn north and the eye will miss us and we will not be in the danger zone.

The map below I have been following shows it is going to drive right over us again..

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone



I know you studied weather some Rob, so please explain this to me..

How in the heck can they say this is going to change track before it gets here?

It's wind! heck it does not have a mind or even know where it is going or what it is going to do itself?

Last year with Yolanda the tracking showed it was going to go north of us, but at the last moment it zigged when it was suppose to zag and drove right over us.

I'm thinking it easy to track and see the direction where it is going, but they can only just make educated guesses as to any changes in direction.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is late in the day here now so no more boats, but I plan to send Irish and the Kids to the City on the first boat out in the morning.

Better safe than sorry.. and I want to make sure they are all OK.

Last year the house we were in at Dino's place on high ground.. the whole roof was ripped off, I was worried at the time the concrete walls would collapse... and it does happen.

I saw many concrete walls that did not make it last year.

Myself and brother in law Ariel will stay here with the house and try to save all we can from the storm.
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Old 12-04-2014, 4:50am   #27
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Damn, I didn't see how nasty this thing has gotten in the last day.
Sustained winds of 180 mph as of tonight.

Prayers for all folks in the way of that bitch. That's a LOT of wind/water.
Scott
Surprised me to wake up and read the news also..

They named it Ruby here now, and that is my Moms name.

For some reason I feel like Mom is out there watching over us and everything will be ok.





Home | Weather Philippines

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Super Typhoon HAGUPIT (RUBY) Update Number 004

HAGUPIT now locally named "Ruby" has rapidly intensified into a Super Typhoon as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early this morning...increasing its threat to Eastern Philippines particularly Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region this weekend
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Super Typhoon HAGUPIT (RUBY) Update Number 005

Super Typhoon HAGUPIT has intensified further as it continues to move quickly across the southeastern part the Philippine Sea...increasing more its threat to Eastern Philippines particularly Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region this weekend
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Old 12-04-2014, 4:55am   #28
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Kind of a funny story from last night while drinking some Rhum with a few of the guys.




I was telling Tata how I do not wish any harm to others, but I do pray that this storm will go north and miss us.

Tata thought about it for a second then said..

"Yeah but... just remember there are a whole lot of people up north praying it right back to us..."

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Old 12-04-2014, 5:50am   #29
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Kind of a funny story from last night while drinking some Rhum with a few of the guys. I was telling Tata how I do not wish any harm to others, but I do pray that this storm will go north and miss us. Tata thought about it for a second then said.. "Yeah but... just remember there are a whole lot of people up north praying it right back to us..."
Lol. Very true.

Glad Irish and the kids are getting out of there. Wish you were also though.
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Old 12-04-2014, 6:49am   #30
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Good luck man. Sendin' some positive thoughts you're way!
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Old 12-04-2014, 7:39am   #31
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Old 12-04-2014, 7:48am   #32
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I know you studied weather some Rob, so please explain this to me..

How in the heck can they say this is going to change track before it gets here?

It's wind! heck it does not have a mind or even know where it is going or what it is going to do itself?
Remember the wind can go only where it is the higher force of energy. Now, there might be another larger pressure system, either high or low, that might be north or south of the typhoon, so the typhoon is going to follow the path of least resistance. The momentum is there to continue the westerly path, but there may be air currents preventing it from moving north or south.

If you want to get real technical - you have to look at things like the isobars which are the linear lines of wind based on a directional inbound or outbound flow.

Look at this map - you can see that there is some strong pressure coming out of Japan right now so my guess is that Ruby will track more south than north.

earth :: an animated map of global wind, weather, and ocean conditions

And there is nothing to the south of Ruby that appears to be holding it back from descending.

Here is a screen capture of it currently if the java applet does not load

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Old 12-04-2014, 8:00am   #33
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Prayers and positive thoughts for you and your family Tim.
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Old 12-04-2014, 8:10am   #34
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Old 12-04-2014, 8:21am   #35
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Looks pretty serious.

Get to high ground and hunker down.
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Old 12-04-2014, 8:34am   #36
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Remember the wind can go only where it is the higher force of energy. Now, there might be another larger pressure system, either high or low, that might be north or south of the typhoon, so the typhoon is going to follow the path of least resistance. The momentum is there to continue the westerly path, but there may be air currents preventing it from moving north or south.

If you want to get real technical - you have to look at things like the isobars which are the linear lines of wind based on a directional inbound or outbound flow.

Look at this map - you can see that there is some strong pressure coming out of Japan right now so my guess is that Ruby will track more south than north.

And there is nothing to the south of Ruby that appears to be holding it back from descending.

Here is a screen capture of it currently if the java applet does not load
Thanks for taking the time to explain this and it's all starting to make sense now.

From what you say and I see the chances are more likely to head more to us than away.

Remember after last years storm I said, what are the odds of this happening again in a lifetime? and I thought they were very slight..

First of all I doubted there would be another storm as big as Yolanda, and even less likely that it would be here again if it did happen.

I see now that this is not as big as Yolanda was yet, but still has a few more days to build up to be as big or even possibly bigger they are saying.

Meanwhile all is calm before the storm here..

Everyone seems relaxed but worried some, today was sunny and beautiful out all day, this evening there is a slight breeze that feels good and normal for this time of the year.

Disco over in Sillion again tonight, we may go later for something to do.

All ferry boats out are cancelled already I just found out awhile ago, even though the weather is fine here for now.. so the only way for Irish and the kids to go is by pump boat, and I am seriously not going to risk putting them on a pump boat.
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Old 12-04-2014, 8:34am   #37
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Project NOAH executive director Mahar Lagmay also identified the areas where storm surges will be greatest. Storm surges as high as four meters—the height of a one-storey house—may be expected in Carigara and Babatngon in Northern Leyte; Santa Rita and Basey in Eastern Samar; and Tacloban City.
Tim - at least stay at Dino's and not at your house. You are 3' above sea level and "stuff" can be replaced, you remember our conversation about "stuff"
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Old 12-04-2014, 8:43am   #38
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Was on the national news this a.m. Get your hunker down on, Tim.
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Old 12-04-2014, 10:26am   #39
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Tim - at least stay at Dino's and not at your house. You are 3' above sea level and "stuff" can be replaced, you remember our conversation about "stuff"
Your family needs you around for a while longer.
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Old 12-04-2014, 10:33am   #40
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Stay Safe Tim!
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