80% 20% explained by an expert. - Page 8

VatorMan · 04-03-2020, 4:07pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3C7NIC

So, you're not that "one" guy?

Got it.

You all should support Lipp~E, she is a good girl.

Snide looks like he’d buy a Tiger zoo.

Murray · 04-03-2020, 4:09pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

If anyone is still watching the numbers: Total US cases have looked exponential the last several days, but doubling every 5+ days, not anywhere close to the 2-3 days folks were projecting a week or so ago.

NJ is expected to peak in 5-6 days from now, depending on what metric you want to use.

This is from a week ago.

If it were to keep doubling every 3 days, then current measures aren’t enough

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/us-c...hree-days.html

snide · 04-03-2020, 4:13pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by VatorMan

Snide looks like he’d buy a Tiger zoo.

I was actually out looking at farmland today...

Mick · 04-03-2020, 4:21pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murray

This is from a week ago.

If it were to keep doubling every 3 days, then current measures aren’t enough

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/us-c...hree-days.html

Obviously, that article was wrong, and precisely what I said. It took a full 5 days to double from that point, and the growth has been slowing a little bit. Don't take my word for it, check the data.

VatorMan · 04-03-2020, 4:28pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by snide

I was actually out looking at farmland today...

Stay away from Meth, women from Florida and gayness.

Raazor · 04-03-2020, 4:37pm

CNBC

Aerovette · 04-03-2020, 4:38pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by VatorMan

Stay away from Meth, women from Florida and gayness.

You found that out the hard way huh?

C3C7NIC · 04-03-2020, 4:54pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by VatorMan

Stay away from Meth, women from Florida and gayness.

Forgot a few more>

One armed lesbians, polygamist cult leaders, and drug lords that desire to dismember your body.

C3C7NIC · 04-03-2020, 4:56pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murray

This is from a week ago.

If it were to keep doubling every 3 days, then current measures aren’t enough

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/us-c...hree-days.html

Wasting your breath Murr~V.

Some of these folks wouldn't believe the numbers if they were written on a pile of corpses on their city streets.

Mick · 04-03-2020, 5:00pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3C7NIC

Wasting your breath Murr~V.

Some of these folks wouldn't believe the numbers if they were written on a pile of corpses on their city streets.

Where did I say I didn't believe the numbers? In fact, I am using numbers from the same sites you have linked in your own posts, so it is implicit in my posts that I DO believe the numbers. If you have sites with data you think is superior, post them up, and I would be happy to look at those numbers.

But you won't, because you can't seem to handle the fact that someone has a different view than you.

dwjz06 · 04-03-2020, 5:03pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerovette

Of course, but I've never had bad sex. They did...I didn't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3C7NIC

Wasting your breath Murr~V.

Some of these folks wouldn't believe the numbers if they were written on a pile of corpses on their city streets.

Not sure I believe the numbers since they say low testing and false positives etc... However I am damn cautious cause I know what it is like to not be able to breathe.

Murray · 04-03-2020, 5:04pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

Obviously, that article was wrong, and precisely what I said. It took a full 5 days to double from that point, and the growth has been slowing a little bit. Don't take my word for it, check the data.

The article was about the latest numbers ( a week ago) doubling in two days

And you’ve gone from 100,000 to 273,000 in those 7 days, I’m glad it’s not 2 days like it was, hope it gets better and better

snide · 04-03-2020, 5:13pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by VatorMan

Stay away from Meth, women from Florida and gayness.

Done, done and done.

Anjdog2003 · 04-03-2020, 5:13pm

I don't walk and live in fear. I don't listen to the media. And in a couple of month when they say it's ok to go back living the way we used to because you wearing mask and gloves and staying 6 ft apart did it. Next year they'll have CoronaVires20 but will only have too wear one glove stay 3 ft apart and a mask will be optional.

C3C7NIC · 04-03-2020, 5:27pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

Where did I say I didn't believe the numbers? In fact, I am using numbers from the same sites you have linked in your own posts, so it is implicit in my posts that I DO believe the numbers. If you have sites with data you think is superior, post them up, and I would be happy to look at those numbers.

But you won't, because you can't seem to handle the fact that someone has a different view than you.

Doug, is that you?

Mick · 04-03-2020, 5:29pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murray

The article was about the latest numbers ( a week ago) doubling in two days

And you’ve gone from 100,000 to 273,000 in those 7 days, I’m glad it’s not 2 days like it was, hope it gets better and better

YOUR analysis is correct. It took 5 days for US total cases to double from a week ago. It will probably take 3 more days to get past 400,000, which would be another doubling. In other words, doubling about every 5 days.

This was my whole point, that cases doubling every 2-3 days as was the media-pushed hysteria of a week ago (of which the article you posted from a week ago is a perfect example), were wrong, and the data has proven that out.

AFAIK, I have made no statement, inference, or implication that I "don't believe" the data. But as usual, we have some drama queens in here who MUST read a bunch of stuff into posts that just plain isn't there.

FWIW: I do believe the data is very noisy. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, and no one who has ever worked in any data analysis field, like ever, would expect to get data that isn't noisy, especially early on in a growth curve like we are now. This is one of the reasons why I have specifically pointed out IN THIS VERY THREAD that we were working with a tiny data set here. Yes, it is growing, but the data set is still very small. This is nothing more than a recognition of reality, and does not mean in any way that I "don't believe the numbers".

Mick · 04-03-2020, 5:31pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3C7NIC

Doug, is that you?

I'm still waiting on the data set that you think is better than the one you posted, or an explanation of why you think my analysis of your data set is incorrect. Thanks.

Steve_R · 04-03-2020, 5:41pm

As testing increases the raw numbers of positive (and negative) results will increase. Stevie Wonder could see that coming.

Testing here - you’re supposed to have at least one symptom to be tested - is running 90% negative.