Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[JRD77VET]

Any idea what oil is going to do in the next month? Time to purchase about 500 gallons of heating oil for at home.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by JRD77VET

Any idea what oil is going to do in the next month? Time to purchase about 500 gallons of heating oil for at home.

Go down, but not by much

[Jeff '79]

Facebook down 25% after hours.
Zuckerberg opens his mouth and it drops on increased security spending.
Good time to buy it....
$145B in market cap = Nike, McDonald's, and IBM combined

[MrPeabody]

Facebook is the new MySpace.

[Will]

This is why I'm not in QQQ, this is why I have sliced and diced and underweighted FAANG overall, ESPECIALLY (1) Netflix, and (2) Facebook which the S&P is weighted to 4x what our portfolio is.

Down 20%. DAMN.

Guess what happens if Facebook is significantly down next time the Index Funds rebalance???

Shares Owned:

Vanguard: 174 million shares
BlackRock: 150m
Fidelity: 120m
State Street: 88m
TRowe Price: 77m
Capital Group: 68m


The sad part is, despite how little I like the stock, Facebook is STILL in our Top 10 holdings b/c of our little more than 1/3 allocation to the S&P. But less than 1%, far less than the 2% share it has of SPY and 6% share of QQQ.


NVIDIA, Amazon, and Apple are our Top 3 holdings. Overweight NVDA, but still udnerweight the other 2, although not by as much as the rest of FAANG. I feel great about Apple (hell, look at it's P/E). I feel great about NVIDIA because of my beliefs about the long term future, but I could see it having some short term pain too. We'll see. I am a tad worried about Amazon. If AWS #s aren't good when they report = BIG PROBLEM. Microsoft has been doing really well with Azure. Google just reported some good news as well. Has the pie grown enough to accomodate continued growth for AWS as well, or did Microsoft and Google take a bite out of AWS?

Will be watching very closely when Amazon reports. I don't think they'll follow Netflix and Facebook's lead. But I wouldn't be shocked to be wrong.

[Will]

No need to worry I guess. Amazon Web Services still doing quite well. Bezos' machine rolls along.

[Will]

Bear Case:

Twitter

WHY IT MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO REVISIT RAY DALIO’S 1937 ANALOG

. . . .

• Debt Limits Reached at Bubble Top, Causing the Economy and Markets to Peak (1929 & 2007)
• Interest Rates Hit Zero amid Depression (1932 & 2008)
• Money Printing Starts, Kicking off a Beautiful Deleveraging (1933 & 2009)
• The Stock Market and “Risky Assets” Rally (1933-1936 & 2009-2017)
• The Economy Improves during a Cyclical Recovery (1933-1936 & 2009-2017)
• The Central Bank Tightens a Bit, Resulting in a Self-Reinforcing Downturn (1937)

. . . . The correlation between the S&P 500 over the past four years (black and white candles in the chart below) and the four years leading up to the 1937 top (blue candles) is roughly 94% . . . .

https://stockboardasset.com/insights...s-1937-analog/


Our portfolio is 98% equities 2% cash BTW. But strangely I pay much more attention to the bears.

[Will]

Bull Case: Nice quarterly report from Caterpillar this AM, good sign for the economy as a whole. Comfortably beat earnings expectations, & raised their full year profit forecast.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/30/cate...s-q2-2018.html

[Jeff '79]

The S&P is 20 pts from an all time high.
It's time to sit up, take note, and really consider an exit strategy.
I originally said that I'd bail in early October, but it could be sooner, as the market has been on an nice slow retracement from its previous high, and is almost there..
What are your tea leaves saying Polar Bear ?

[Jeff '79]

And there it is kids.
China and US to resume trade talks.
Onward and upward !

[DAB]

Bitcoin on sale.

[DAB]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

The S&P is 20 pts from an all time high.
It's time to sit up, take note, and really consider an exit strategy.
I originally said that I'd bail in early October, but it could be sooner, as the market has been on an nice slow retracement from its previous high, and is almost there..
What are your tea leaves saying Polar Bear ?

2841 as I type.

52 week hi: 2,872.87

[Will]

Days like yesterday and today just make me laugh.

SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL errr, no,wait, BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY.

Oh well. The sheep can make the market as volatile as they like and lose as much money trading as they like. I'll just keep plugging along and enjoying my returns over the long haul.

Eagerly anticipating the Nvidia report this evening. If it's great, I'll be happy to see it go higher. But even better would be some kind of disappointment being found and used as a mental excuse to "take some profits" and sell. I'll happily buy some more shares to hold for the next decade or two on sale.

[DAB]

Bulls make money

Bears make money

Pigs get slaughtered.

[Jeff '79]

Above 2833 for an S&P close tomorrow is the magic number.
She closed today at 2840.
Yep, it's only 7pts above last Friday's close.
It's amazing how it toys with last week's close every week.
You would have thought it was a lost cause yesterday, then voila, big day...
If a trade agreement is reached, I call S&P 3000

[Will]

NVDA is under $250 after hours.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Will

NVDA is under $250 after hours.

I don't do individual stocks. I'm not good at it, just lucky, but mostly unlucky, so I stay away from them.
Maybe Dixie can chime in

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

I don't do individual stocks. I'm not good at it, just lucky, but mostly unlucky, so I stay away from them.
Maybe Dixie can chime in

Some things are easier to spot than others. When I saw this ad run last Halloween, I knew these guys weren't going to roll over and play dead for Amazon.

Be who you want this Halloween | Walmart - YouTube

[DAB]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Above 2833 for an S&P close tomorrow is the magic number.
She closed today at 2840.
Yep, it's only 7pts above last Friday's close.
It's amazing how it toys with last week's close every week.
You would have thought it was a lost cause yesterday, then voila, big day...
If a trade agreement is reached, I call S&P 3000

today's close:

2850.13

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by DAB

today's close:

2850.13

Legendary "Wrecking Crew" members Hal Blaine on drums, and Carol Kaye on bass for this song. Sonny Bono produced the recording, and you can hear the Phil Spector influence on it, no doubt from all the years Bono and Spector worked together.