Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[DAB]

the US dollar is "backed by the full faith and credit of the US gov't" - basically their ability to print money and tax things.

other currencies are also backed by their underlying governments.

in everywhere i've ever traveled, people recognized the US dollar. even drug dealers use it. even russians that visited our family long ago, took home dollars (legally), to use to buy stuff back home.

my dad was even able to use dollars to buy a russian fur hat in old E. Berlin long ago.

everyone knows and understands the dollar.

so who or what supports bit coin?

[MrPeabody]

Originally Posted by DAB

the US dollar is "backed by the full faith and credit of the US gov't" - basically their ability to print money and tax things.

other currencies are also backed by their underlying governments.

in everywhere i've ever traveled, people recognized the US dollar. even drug dealers use it. even russians that visited our family long ago, took home dollars (legally), to use to buy stuff back home.

my dad was even able to use dollars to buy a russian fur hat in old E. Berlin long ago.

everyone knows and understands the dollar.

so who or what supports bit coin?

It's also funny how everyone speaks English when you pull out dollars.

[Jeff '79]

The overall market is still sideways as predicted.
Tarriff talks go well. he market soars into early October.
Polar Bear???

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

The overall market is still sideways as predicted.
Tarriff talks go well. he market soars into early October.
Polar Bear???

Let's go with that at the moment. Too many wild cards floating around out there, but still nothing that makes me want to run screaming.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Let's go with that at the moment. Too many wild cards floating around out there, but still nothing that makes me want to run screaming.

[Rob]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

The overall market is still sideways as predicted.
Tarriff talks go well. he market soars into early October.
Polar Bear???

I am starting to think the China talks went well this past week. I am starting to see my Chinese stocks creeping up again after a couple weeks of slumps.

Crossing my fingers for good news here real soon

[Will]

I also could have made money if I got in on Amway early on. There were people who profited from Tulip mania.

Blockchain technology is here to stay and is legit. Bitcoin is a scam. Congrats if you make money on it instead of taking a bath. It is highly manipulated. It makes what a shady 80s guy like Milken did with bonds look like child's play.

[Jeff '79]

Ok, Back to our regularly scheduled program..

Uuuuweee!! The S&P blew through resistance of 2700 and closed at 2723

Are we going to the old high of 2822 ?? I dunno, but today we blew out the triangle to the upside. I wanna see some follow through though.

Inflation talk is creeping into the picture so fear will start to shake out the weak. Shorts and longs are both making money lately, but will this breakout create a big short covering event?, driving the market up further... Yes, it will imo.
I'm still sticking to my October correction prediction...

Summer rally coming right up kids !!!!.

The Donald is clicking on all cylinders.

[Jeff '79]

Follow through... It's important.
THe high of two weeks ago will be taken out tomorrow with the news that Olstee Bus posted here first, this morning.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ds-white-house

Summer rally, coming right up, served to you gladly by The Donald.

The DOW futures are up 200+ right now, on that news.
If tomorrow follows through with a big day and a closing high into the bell, we're going wayyy higher kids.

Technically?
The S&P closed above the pennant two weeks in a row.
This is really good for the bulls.

[DAB]

[Rob]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Follow through... It's important.

THe high of two weeks ago will be taken out tomorrow with the news that Olstee Bus posted here first, this morning.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ds-white-house



Summer rally, coming right up, served to you gladly by The Donald.



The DOW futures are up 200+ right now, on that news.

If tomorrow follows through with a big day and a closing high into the bell, we're going wayyy higher kids.



Technically?

The S&P closed above the pennant two weeks in a row.

This is really good for the bulls.

I saw that same article this morning and cannot wait to see what happens tomorrow.

[polarbear]

A lot of noise... and it's distracting.

He's gonna get impeached... no wait, he's running for the 2nd term. maybe.

He's gonna start WW!!! with North Korea... oh wait, they're setting up peace talks.

He's gonna start a worldwide trade war... just kidding, he just made a deal with China...



You have to filter it all.

[DAB]

after 45 min, dow is up 306+

[Will]

I am ready for the Summer rally. Hope you're right Jeff. I too am optimistic about the near term future.

"This bull market is long in the tooth!" Based on what, days/months? So what? None of the past bull runs ended because of how many days it had been since the last bear market. There has to be a REASON. Like the business cycle.

THIS is the reason why I choose to believe we are NOT actually near the end of the expansion in the business cycle:

Twitter

The sustained and unprecedented decline in LFPR, particular in the 25-54 y.o. "working age" demographic, means today's U3 is not your father or your grandfather's U3. We have A LOT of room left for job creation and economic growth. The U3 unemployment rate being ~4% today is NOT comparable to being so in 1999-2000 or 2007.


I have adjusted/simplified our Vanguard IRA & Taxable Account portfolio. Reduced Bond from 15% to 5%, added in 5% each of VNQ (REIT) and VPU (Utilities) to have some low-correlated, good dividend paying assets. Also using an equal weight S&P fund (RSP) for a chunk of domestic stock holdings and slightly decreasing reliance on VTSAX (which is market cap weighted) to reduce any individual stock to a maximum of ~1% of our portfolio.


30% VTSAX
25% VXUS
20% RSP
5% VPU
5% VNQ
5% VBMFX
5% ARKW
5% SOXX


Top 50 Holdings/% of Vanguard IRA/Taxable Portfolio:




Mrs' 403(b) plan is now just 100% in the State Street S&P 500 Index Fund. Increased withholding/contributions from $970/month to $1,300/month. Went ahead and did half of this year's $5,500 IRA limit in the Vanguard IRA at the last dip we just took to ~ DJIA 23.5k last week.


I am being conservative/pessimistic about returns in my retirement planning modelmover the next couple of decades as opposed to the much higher returns over the past 20 years.


Bring on Trump Rally 2.0 please.

[DAB]

Originally Posted by DAB

after 45 min, dow is up 306+

and it closed up 298.20 at 25013.29

[polarbear]

So we've moved... what... 2 points net in 10 days?

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

So we've moved... what... 2 points net in 10 days?

Just look back for the post when I said we'd be going sideways for a while.
We are going sideways, , still.
I'd like one more breakout to the top so that I can bail while up 15% -16% ytd.
I'm up 11.03% ytd as I type. Another 4%-5% and I'll be happy.

[Jeff '79]

Week over week the S&P closed higher, albeit, only by 11 points, but that is good.
Trump, stopping OPEC's oil rally had a lot to do with why the market closed a tad lower today, but in the long run, it will be better for the consumer. +$3 a gallon gas does no real good for the economy and Trump apparently knows it.
Again... Yay Donnny !!!

[polarbear]

Well, that livened things up a bit today. Italy causing a Euro crisis. Seriously?

If you slap a ruler on that chart, you'll see we're still trading in that channel that started in Feb. That's all you really need to know for now.

[Jeff '79]

The End Of Sideways May Be Here, and it looks like a break to the upside

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-trading-range