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Old 11-27-2020, 4:00pm   #1
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Default So The Stock Market Is A Touch Frothy These Days

Is anyone bailing ?

As of today's close, I'm 90% cash - 10% risky funds in my 401k, which is up 25% ytd, as of this morning.
I suspect it'll be up ~26% at tonight's settlement.
I'll take it !
I sold all of my stocks except for JFrog, which I will sell on Monday for $72.00 hopefully.
Then I'll wait for a little correction.
The Fed and monetary policy is allowing for stretched valuations, ergo records for the S&P and NASDAQ today.
How long can it last ?
The brokerages have to book their profits for the year soon, the unemployment numbers are going up again, and that nuke scientist was whacked in Iran today, so I'm packing it in for a bit.
What are you thinking kids ?

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/...154200122.html

Laugh all you want about the news source, but Muhammed El-Erain is one smart cookie.
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Old 11-27-2020, 4:20pm   #2
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I've gone the opposite way. I started buying long treasuries and gold in fall 2018 after the cycle peaked.

Sold last of long treasuries a couple of months back, sold remaning gold last week.

Portfolio is more bullish than it's been since early 2018. 25% of overall portfolio still in int. term bonds in 403(b). Rest equities (& 1% bitcoin).

+35% since Feb. 19th prior peak, QQQ is +25%. I've had a good year by virtue of being prepared for the crash. Still made mistakes though, and waited way too long to start buying. I only spent about about 20% of our cash/gold/treausry reserves buying stocks the week of the lows in March. Lesson I'm taking - when you get your price, buy. I was greedy and expecting more pain/tears/selling.

Joe Biden is getting the Bill Clinton treatment - handed success on a silver platter. Economy will rip in 2021. Trump getting screwed. 0% chance the media will credit him with what he has set us up for coming out of this lockdown crap.

Biden will **** the blue collar working class with amnesty and offshoring, but that won't hurt stocks. "Wealth gap" is going to start ripping again IMO.

.02
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Old 11-27-2020, 4:33pm   #3
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I've gone the opposite way. I started buying long treasuries and gold in fall 2018 after the cycle peaked.

Sold last of long treasuries a couple of months back, sold remaning gold last week.

Portfolio is more bullish than it's been since early 2018. 25% of overall portfolio still in int. term bonds in 403(b). Rest equities (& 1% bitcoin).

+35% since Feb. 19th prior peak, QQQ is +25%. I've had a good year by virtue of being prepared for the crash. Still made mistakes though, and waited way too long to start buying. I only spent about about 20% of our cash/gold/treausry reserves buying stocks the week of the lows in March. Lesson I'm taking - when you get your price, buy. I was greedy and expecting more pain/tears/selling.

Joe Biden is getting the Bill Clinton treatment - handed success on a silver platter. Economy will rip in 2021. Trump getting screwed. 0% chance the media will credit him with what he has set us up for coming out of this lockdown crap.

Biden will **** the blue collar working class with amnesty and offshoring, but that won't hurt stocks. "Wealth gap" is going to start ripping again IMO.

.02
Nice run for Bitcoin! I was in way back at $9800 but bailed before it tanked.
Luckily, my money was used wisely in the interim.
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Old 11-27-2020, 4:35pm   #4
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bulls make money

bears make money

pigs get slaughtered

as normal, fully invested for the long term, cash in hand for next year's spending.

if i can average 6% each year, i'm good. since we spend about 3.5% each year.

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Old 11-27-2020, 4:38pm   #5
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bulls make money

bears make money

pigs get slaughtered

as normal, fully invested for the long term, cash in hand for next year's spending.

if i can average 6% each year, i'm good. since we spend about 3.5% each year.

I guess that I should figure out what % that I spend per year.
You and I are the same age, so that would probably be a crucial number to know.
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Old 11-27-2020, 5:12pm   #6
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I guess that I should figure out what % that I spend per year.
You and I are the same age, so that would probably be a crucial number to know.
long ago, a pretty smart guy (not me) did a study of history, and found that if you limit your withdrawals to 4% or less, you wouldn't run out of money in a 30 year retirement.

my experience has confirmed that over the last 12 years.
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Old 11-27-2020, 5:14pm   #7
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long ago, a pretty smart guy (not me) did a study of history, and found that if you limit your withdrawals to 4% or less, you wouldn't run out of money in a 30 year retirement.

my experience has confirmed that over the last 12 years.
I did not know that.
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Old 11-27-2020, 5:25pm   #8
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Not bailing out.... <Shrug>........not using what I've saved/invested.
Property management company takes care of our rentals.
Still trying to figure out what to do with money I don't spend every month. Around 2k.
Suggestions?
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Old 11-27-2020, 5:29pm   #9
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I pay people to make those decisions.
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Old 11-27-2020, 5:52pm   #10
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Not bailing out.... <Shrug>........not using what I've saved/invested.
Property management company takes care of our rentals.
Still trying to figure out what to do with money I don't spend every month. Around 2k.
Suggestions?


oooh, ooooh, ooooh....

pick me....pick me!!!!!

only a few things to do with money: spend it, save it, give it away.

at present prices, that's about 2 cases of ammo a month. used to be about 9
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Old 11-27-2020, 5:53pm   #11
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a recent uptick allowed us to sell a winner and we'll now pay off the home loan we took out to help pay for the shop.
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Old 11-27-2020, 6:08pm   #12
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oooh, ooooh, ooooh....

pick me....pick me!!!!!

only a few things to do with money: spend it, save it, give it away.

at present prices, that's about 2 cases of ammo a month. used to be about 9
Lol.....I'll continue to save.....my bid for a APV was denied by SWMBO.
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Old 11-27-2020, 6:27pm   #13
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long ago, a pretty smart guy (not me) did a study of history, and found that if you limit your withdrawals to 4% or less, you wouldn't run out of money in a 30 year retirement.

my experience has confirmed that over the last 12 years.
If you withdrew 4% per annum, the principal would last 26 years, not 30 years.
Are you assuming a 3% return, per annum, on the remaining principal?
That would seem to get you to 30 years.
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Old 11-27-2020, 6:35pm   #14
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If you withdrew 4% per annum, the principal would last 26 years, not 30 years.
Are you assuming a 3% return, per annum, on the remaining principal?
That would seem to get you to 30 years.
the study done long ago used historical data, ups and downs, covering 30 year time periods from 1929 (i think) to the 90s or so. even with down cycles, the ups made up for the downs on average.

so, yeah, we all want 10-12% per year (that's what Dave Ramsey assumes ), but i'm ok with reducing risk and being happy with 6%.

if you do it right, you get to a certain point where you can stop taking so many risks. risks have ups, and large downs too.

i think i figured some time ago that if we averaged 6% long term, we'd end up with more than we started with and live nicely too.
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Old 11-27-2020, 6:42pm   #15
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I have absolutely no idea what Iím doing financially.

But I do get brokerage statements every month that I never open, so I got that going for me.
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Old 11-27-2020, 6:47pm   #16
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I have absolutely no idea what Iím doing financially.

But I do get brokerage statements every month that I never open, so I got that going for me.
You're ahead of the curve.

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Old 11-27-2020, 6:53pm   #17
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I have absolutely no idea what Iím doing financially.

But I do get brokerage statements every month that I never open, so I got that going for me.
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Old 11-27-2020, 7:00pm   #18
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Originally Posted by DAB View Post
the study done long ago used historical data, ups and downs, covering 30 year time periods from 1929 (i think) to the 90s or so. even with down cycles, the ups made up for the downs on average.

so, yeah, we all want 10-12% per year (that's what Dave Ramsey assumes ), but i'm ok with reducing risk and being happy with 6%.

if you do it right, you get to a certain point where you can stop taking so many risks. risks have ups, and large downs too.

i think i figured some time ago that if we averaged 6% long term, we'd end up with more than we started with and live nicely too.
I've reached my risk tolerance for the time being, so I cashed out for now.
For the past 5 years, I have averaged 12.5%. This year... 26%, so that'll bring the average up. I've had a couple years like this in the past, and a couple less than 5%. I just don't feel alive unless I have skin in the game.
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Old 11-27-2020, 7:04pm   #19
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I've reached my risk tolerance for the time being, so I cashed out for now.
For the past 5 years, I have averaged 12.5%. This year... 26%, so that'll bring the average up. I've had a couple years like this in the past, and a couple less than 5%. I just don't feel alive unless I have skin in the game.
if we are both 57ish, then we are both expecting SS to start paying us in a few years, and in 2 years we can start taking money from retirement accounts without penalty.

i need to run some numbers and see if it's wise to take money from my IRA, pay minimal taxes, and stash it elsewhere (taxable account), but if i'm clever, after that, any capital gains will be taxes at zero.
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Old 11-27-2020, 7:08pm   #20
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we can start taking money from retirement accounts without penalty.
According to leftist Biden picks only evil rich have retirement accounts.
Wait for it all to be confiscated in the name of equality.
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