Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[DAB]

i look at the index numbers on line every day or so.

i look at our account balance a few times a month, including when the statement comes in the mail.

as long as it keeps going up generally, i'm happy. the goal is not some arbitrary number, the goal is to be able to pay our bills. as long as we're drawing out less than it's going up over the course of a year, i'm happy.

[DAB]

going to zero?

https://nypost.com/2018/07/04/why-bi...worth-nothing/

I thought we’d finally get rid of bitcoin. But the fake “currency,” which I like to call bitcon, just won’t fade away.

Bitcoin’s price rallied to over $6,600 yesterday, but it had been well under $6,000 last week. Even at $6,600, bitcoin is still worth 70 percent less than it was at the beginning of the year.

I use the term “worth” cautiously because bitcoin is really worth nothing, since it’s backed by nothing or no one. It’s a confidence game that has value only because people are convincing other people that it’s worth something.

Got it! Ponzi scheme. Confidence game. Fraud.

Anyway, bitcoin is headed for a value of zilch. It’s only a matter of when.

at least the dollar is backed by the ability of the government to tax things and people. and sell assets. wanna buy Yellowstone?

[Jeff '79]

So the S&P bounced off of the 100dma on June 27, and then the 50 dma July 3 - today, and now is back above the 10 dma.(Going higher)
What does it all mean ???

Technically? we're riding the lightning up the channel, sideways.
The next breakout is imminent.

Why? The 100 dma held and she's walking back up to the channel top of it.

Imminent?
That may be a little pre-mature, but if the S&P can break out of the top of the channel, we're going higher.
For reference sake, this will be the fourth time since April 2, as it has done this three times now, and broke out higher.

Just my 2¢

[DAB]

i almost understood all of that.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by DAB

i almost understood all of that.

Get it now ???

[DAB]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

So the S&P bounced off of the 100dma on June 27, and then the 50 dma July 3 - today, and now is back above the 10 dma.(Going higher)
What does it all mean ???

Technically? we're riding the lightning up the channel, sideways.
The next breakout is imminent.

Why? The 100 dma held and she's walking back up to the channel top of it.

Imminent?
That may be a little pre-mature, but if the S&P can break out of the top of the channel, we're going higher.
For reference sake, this will be the fourth time since April 2, as it has done this three times now, and broke out higher.

Just my 2¢

dma - daily moving average, so 50dma- average over the last 50 days.

channel: the bounds of its recent highs and lows.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by DAB

dma - daily moving average, so 50dma- average over the last 50 days.

channel: the bounds of its recent highs and lows.

Exactly.
This is purely technical and "event's" can change things in a heart beat, however events are short term. Trends are what you need to watch.

That being said, there is an upward bias, (trend), so when you see the market tanking, you should be self assured that it won't tank past the 100 dma at the most, or the 50 dma at the least. We just saw the 100 dma be breached and bounced from... That is when you want to sit up and think about thinning.
We are up enough to have the luxury of not selling unless it does breach and stay below the 100 dma.
Once it goes below that and stays below that, it is time to sell. This is where traders and amateurs get burned. Greed keeps you playing.
Emotion should not be present when doing this. If it happens... SELL.
It is as simple as that.
There are tons of people that got shaken out in the past few weeks.
They are now chasing, something that you never want to do, but inevitably will happen in your trading career.
I'm holding....

[DAB]

if you follow the herd, you'll end up in the same place as the rest of them.

[snide]

Originally Posted by DAB

if you follow the herd, you'll end up in the same place as the rest of them.

You should post that in the Profound thread.

[polarbear]

So let's assume a few things:

1. The trend isn't sideways after all, it's up. Why? Look at the trade war worry on that chart. Correction- try to find it (hint- it isn't there).
2. Slap a ruler on the bottom of that chart. This ain't rocket science.

Ignore the news- it's just noise, and most of it is already built into the chart. Don't believe me? Who was watching the futures election night? They started crashing about three hours before the winner was declared- I yelled out to my wife "Trump's gonna win!" She didn't believe it. The Big Money always knows.

[Millenium Vette]

Originally Posted by DAB

if you follow the herd, you'll end up in the same place as the rest of them.

Meh, there really isn't a "herd" in the stock market. The easiest and surest way to get ahead in the market is to buy and hold. For 20-30 years. You WILL have equity.

You can make money timing the market but you have to be good at it. Most get washed out in a few short years trying to do it. Plus, there is the disadvantage of having to pay capital gains taxes which erodes capital for reinvestment. (NOT talking about any posters here. Those guys ARE good at it)

[Millenium Vette]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Ignore the news- it's just noise, and most of it is already built into the chart. Don't believe me? Who was watching the futures election night? They started crashing about three hours before the winner was declared- I yelled out to my wife "Trump's gonna win!" She didn't believe it. The Big Money always knows.

My dad wondered how I knew so early that Trump had won. What really did surprise me was how the US markets went up after the open on the day after the election. I thought it was going to be dismal.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

So the S&P bounced off of the 100dma on June 27, and then the 50 dma July 3 - today, and now is back above the 10 dma.(Going higher)
What does it all mean ???

Technically? we're riding the lightning up the channel, sideways.
The next breakout is imminent.

Why? The 100 dma held and she's walking back up to the channel top of it.

Imminent?
That may be a little pre-mature, but if the S&P can break out of the top of the channel, we're going higher.
For reference sake, this will be the fourth time since April 2, as it has done this three times now, and broke out higher.

Just my 2¢

So the talking heads are now talking BREAKOUT !

I said that on July 5th.
Man, they sure have an eye for the obvious.... After the fact.

That being said, S&P 2800 is resistance, technically speaking.
The market came a long way, and quite frankly, I'm surprised today wasn't a down day.
If the S&P closes above 2800 on Friday, it's up up and away...
Too soon to tell though.
I'm loving the trend though.
The trend is our friend.... As long as you're long.
Can yo imagine being shaken out last week?

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by polarbear

So let's assume a few things:

1. The trend isn't sideways after all, it's up. Why? Look at the trade war worry on that chart. Correction- try to find it (hint- it isn't there).
2. Slap a ruler on the bottom of that chart. This ain't rocket science.

Ignore the news- it's just noise, and most of it is already built into the chart. Don't believe me? Who was watching the futures election night? They started crashing about three hours before the winner was declared- I yelled out to my wife "Trump's gonna win!" She didn't believe it. The Big Money always knows.

Look for a retrace to 2780ish or so, then back up again. That and 98 cents gets you coffee at Micky D'd.

[Jeff '79]

I thought that today's action would happen yesterday.
Better a day late than never.
The S&P broke through resistance of 2780 but closed below it.
VERY HEALTHY.....
Just watch it close above 2780 on Friday and then watch all of the lemmings flock back into the market, catapulting it to new highs.
It's only Wednesday, so there is plenty of time for the market to sell off more and get to where we need it to be by Friday at 4pm.
Gidee-up !!

[Jeff '79]

So if the S&P closes over 2781 today, (last Friday's close), the upward trend continues.
It is at 2804 as of Thursday's close.

[Will]

Now that non-leveraged non-Vanguard ETFs are going to be commission free next month, I changed up our portfolio composition since we'll be able to buy non Vanguard funds in small chunks every month without being nickel and dimed by commissions.


Thoughts from any of the veterans?


Underweight "FAANG" vs. the S&P (especially Facebook), overweight NVIDIA, 1/4 technology, overweight payment co's (VISA, Mastercard, etc.), overweight Boeing & Defense Contractors, overweight medical devices, slightly overweight Real Estate & Utilities (lowest correlation with US market than any other sectors & high dividends), around 20% international with emphasis on Chinese tech/web, etc.

Exxon unavoidable in Top holdings b/c of heavy S&P weight (most of 403(b) is in STFAX) but otherwise avoiding oil co's because of our age (mid 30s, most of our peers are greeny weeny liberals) & projected market share of electric cars when we're retired, not big on retailers not named Amazon except Home Depot which is in Top 50 holdings.






Top 30 Holdings / % of Portfolio

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Will

Now that non-leveraged non-Vanguard ETFs are going to be commission free next month, I changed up our portfolio composition since we'll be able to buy non Vanguard funds in small chunks every month without being nickel and dimed by commissions.


Thoughts from any of the veterans?


Underweight "FAANG" vs. the S&P (especially Facebook), overweight NVIDIA, 1/4 technology, overweight payment co's (VISA, Mastercard, etc.), overweight Boeing & Defense Contractors, overweight medical devices, slightly overweight Real Estate & Utilities (lowest correlation with US market than any other sectors & high dividends), around 20% international with emphasis on Chinese tech/web, etc.

Exxon unavoidable in Top holdings b/c of heavy S&P weight (most of 403(b) is in STFAX) but otherwise avoiding oil co's because of our age (mid 30s, most of our peers are greeny weeny liberals) & projected market share of electric cars when we're retired, not big on retailers not named Amazon except Home Depot which is in Top 50 holdings.

Can't go wrong with Vanguard.

I'm split 50%/ 50% in :
Vanguard Morgan Growth Investor Fund
Janus Henderson Forty Institutional Portfolio

Both, in the top 3 return choices, in my 401k, and both commission free..

Up 15.52 ytd

Why worry about the % distribution of assets in any particular fund?
Look at the funds performance.
I go by ytd % gain, last 6 mos % gain, and last complete mo. % gain.
Pick the highest returning one using those parameters, and you're good.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

So if the S&P closes over 2781 today, (last Friday's close), the upward trend continues.
It is at 2804 as of Thursday's close.

I meant 2801. I misspoke

And there it sits at 2801.
.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

I meant 2801. I misspoke

And there it sits at 2801.
.