Choose your color scheme:
The Vette Barn  
 
Go Back   The Vette Barn > Off Topic/Babes/Other > Off Topic

Off Topic Off Topic - General non-Corvette related discussion.

User Tag List

Reply
 
Share Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 09-26-2022, 12:44pm   #1
Onebadcad
Barn Stall Owner #116
Doesn't have a big thing
Points: 29,061, Level: 100
Activity: 99.8%
 
Onebadcad's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: NOBROCOSOFLO
Posts: 13,241
Thanks: 3,378
Thanked 8,815 Times in 4,381 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $500
Default Mortgage Rates

It is going to get A LOT WORSE, before it starts getting better.

Today, Fannie / Freddie, 30-year fixed is 6.875%, FHA and VA about the same.


10-year Treasury is at 3.90%, up 18 basis points today.

I predict we will be over 8.000% by Thanksgiving, we will definitely see 10.000+% before rates start falling.

The increase in mortgage rates will CRUSH the housing market, it already has, and then the rest of the economy will crater.

This will get much, much worse:

1) the fed raising the discount rate every six weeks has done nothing in the past nine months except hurt the economy

2) it will do nothing quickly, long-term, 18+ months, will work, as it will cra
ter economy, but the cost to the average person will be very severe

3) unemployment numbers are UTTER BS, how many people are not being counted, what is participation rate, AND those working are not keeping up with inflation, they buy less, or they do not buy

4) GDP will continue to decrease, unemployment will skyrocket, retailers will get crushed--walmart and target will get payback for their wokeness, as their employee costs with benefits and transportation costs will put ALL STORES in the negative

5) unemployment will increase greatly as retailers shut down, most do not have the deep pockets as walmart, expect to see many store closings and bankruptcies, due to increasing costs and decreasing revenues

6) consumers, at least those not on the taxpayer teat, have already amended their spending, they only buy what they need AND eat out less--restaurants will have a much higher fail rate than retailers, fedex gave the warning shot, they are down 43% in nine months

7) not all is bad, you can get your student loans forgiven, illegals will get free housing & food & clothes & cell phones & team mexico futbol polos, and manchin's supporters will get a huge return on investment

8) and best of all, that $50+T National Debt we will have by 2025 is just a number, it will not affect your income tax, cap gains, real estate values, retirement, social security and medicare--at least depends joe said so
Onebadcad is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 12:52pm   #2
6spdC6
A Real Barner
Points: 20,998, Level: 99
Activity: 29.1%
 
6spdC6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: NorthernNY! (A little town on the shores of the Great Sacandaga Lake) in the peoples republic of NY
Posts: 10,023
Thanks: 5,345
Thanked 3,304 Times in 1,801 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $2115673
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onebadcad View Post
It is going to get A LOT WORSE, before it starts getting better.

Today, Fannie / Freddie, 30-year fixed is 6.875%, FHA and VA about the same.


10-year Treasury is at 3.90%, up 18 basis points today.

I predict we will be over 8.000% by Thanksgiving, we will definitely see 10.000+% before rates start falling.

The increase in mortgage rates will CRUSH the housing market, it already has, and then the rest of the economy will crater.

This will get much, much worse:

1) the fed raising the discount rate every six weeks has done nothing in the past nine months except hurt the economy

2) it will do nothing quickly, long-term, 18+ months, will work, as it will cra
ter economy, but the cost to the average person will be very severe

3) unemployment numbers are UTTER BS, how many people are not being counted, what is participation rate, AND those working are not keeping up with inflation, they buy less, or they do not buy

4) GDP will continue to decrease, unemployment will skyrocket, retailers will get crushed--walmart and target will get payback for their wokeness, as their employee costs with benefits and transportation costs will put ALL STORES in the negative

5) unemployment will increase greatly as retailers shut down, most do not have the deep pockets as walmart, expect to see many store closings and bankruptcies, due to increasing costs and decreasing revenues

6) consumers, at least those not on the taxpayer teat, have already amended their spending, they only buy what they need AND eat out less--restaurants will have a much higher fail rate than retailers, fedex gave the warning shot, they are down 43% in nine months

7) not all is bad, you can get your student loans forgiven, illegals will get free housing & food & clothes & cell phones & team mexico futbol polos, and manchin's supporters will get a huge return on investment

8) and best of all, that $50+T National Debt we will have by 2025 is just a number, it will not affect your income tax, cap gains, real estate values, retirement, social security and medicare--at least depends joe said so
Sounds like a rehash of the Jimmy Carter years!
6spdC6 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 12:53pm   #3
Rodnok1
A Real Barner
Points: 41,822, Level: 100
Activity: 62.9%
 
Rodnok1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 16,994
Thanks: 4,837
Thanked 23,718 Times in 9,803 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $315482
Default

I agree with most of that...

Unemployment numbers are way off from actual numbers. Employers are slashing jobs and just not hiring.. That's gonna hurt more than anything.
I'm not sticking my neck out for any loan right now, i have 500 outstanding at most at any given time.

What I see as a plus...
Those of us that can budget and know how to save(or at least pay off stuff) will have bargains galore coming up. Pawn shops will be getting alot of business.
Rodnok1 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Rodnok1 For This Useful Post:
Old 09-26-2022, 1:06pm   #4
Rob
Administrator
Barn Stall Owner #14
Barn Raising II,III Chef

NCM Supporter '11,'12,'13,'14,'15,'16,'17,'20
Bantayan Kids '13,'14,'15,'17
Ukranian Famers are the modern day Chuck Norris
Points: 82,767, Level: 100
Activity: 5.8%
 
Rob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: between here and there
Posts: 25,050
Thanks: 9,360
Thanked 14,303 Times in 5,470 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $17601606
Default

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...il-2022-09-26/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ets-in-turmoil

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks...rs-2022-09-26/

https://www.ft.com/content/a549fabb-...7-7128b7b04b76



Market chaos forces UK lenders to pull mortgage products


It is falling apart as we speak
Rob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 1:21pm   #5
dvarapala
Barn Stall Owner #1120
NCM Supporter '20,'21
Points: 56,276, Level: 100
Activity: 40.3%
 
dvarapala's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: La Isla de Ira
Posts: 17,256
Thanks: 3,778
Thanked 18,438 Times in 8,123 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $1030760
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onebadcad View Post
It is going to get A LOT WORSE, before it starts getting better.

Today, Fannie / Freddie, 30-year fixed is 6.875%, FHA and VA about the same.
Just be glad it's not the 1980s with double-digit mortgage rates.
dvarapala is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 1:24pm   #6
Jughead
A Real Barner
Points: 11,788, Level: 75
Activity: 11.9%
 
Jughead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: 1.Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean people aren't out to get me...
Posts: 1,580
Thanks: 649
Thanked 685 Times in 351 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $530
Default

All transitory.
Jughead is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Jughead For This Useful Post:
Old 09-26-2022, 1:27pm   #7
Rob
Administrator
Barn Stall Owner #14
Barn Raising II,III Chef

NCM Supporter '11,'12,'13,'14,'15,'16,'17,'20
Bantayan Kids '13,'14,'15,'17
Ukranian Famers are the modern day Chuck Norris
Points: 82,767, Level: 100
Activity: 5.8%
 
Rob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: between here and there
Posts: 25,050
Thanks: 9,360
Thanked 14,303 Times in 5,470 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $17601606
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jughead View Post
All transitory.
So were the 2% rates .... It's all about timing
Rob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 1:32pm   #8
Onebadcad
Barn Stall Owner #116
Doesn't have a big thing
Points: 29,061, Level: 100
Activity: 99.8%
 
Onebadcad's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: NOBROCOSOFLO
Posts: 13,241
Thanks: 3,378
Thanked 8,815 Times in 4,381 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $500
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 6spdC6 View Post
Sounds like a rehash of the Jimmy Carter years!
I agree, I was not yet 18 at the time, so not much mattered other than at what store could I buy beer at without an ID check.

There are many much greater issues today vs. then:

1) the carter disaster years were 1978 - 1981, a time long ago, many things are different today

2)The economy thenwas much smaller, GDP in 1978 was $2.4T, 2021 was $24.0T, you cannot apply the same strategy and expect the same results

3) USA population in 1978 was 222m, today is it 50% more people, again, very different parameters

4) printing money and spending on BS is a big part of problem

5) Supply Chain Issue, not solved yet, may never be solved as too many profiting from it, you destory pricing when consumers have no options, they must pay more for the products they want

6) Bigger problem with Supply Chain Issue, you chose NOT TO BUY as no one likes being gored, this slows and kills economy over time

Things that can be distorted by the current socialist administration are on their last broken leg, average intellingence consumer will begin to figure out that this is with us for a minimum of 18 months, they will tighten their budgets and stopped buying all 'wants', and then the second crater will open up and swallow us whole!!
Onebadcad is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Onebadcad For This Useful Post:
Old 09-26-2022, 1:39pm   #9
Onebadcad
Barn Stall Owner #116
Doesn't have a big thing
Points: 29,061, Level: 100
Activity: 99.8%
 
Onebadcad's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: NOBROCOSOFLO
Posts: 13,241
Thanks: 3,378
Thanked 8,815 Times in 4,381 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $500
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dvarapala View Post
Just be glad it's not the 1980s with double-digit mortgage rates.
That will happen, not sure how soon.

Fannie / Freddie 30-year rates were 2.625% in DEC 2021.
Today we are at 6.875%, will be over 7.00% tomorrow, as 10-year Treasury still climbing at 3,900%, up 20 BPS today, cannot recall seeing such a huge swing in one session.

You could see 10.000+% by EOY, you could see over 12.000% before it starts falling.

Home unit sales are down, list prices are being cut by all sellers.
The new housing industry is DONE, no one except cash buyers and those relocating to another state will be looking at these.
Those in contracts will get denied by underwriting due to excessive debt-ratios due to the rising rates, many who may still qualify will walk from their deposits as they cannot budget for $1,000+/month higher payment than was estimated when they entered contract--many signed contracts that leave them open for builder liabiility if they cancel contract.
New home builders, and their subs, will get hammered, no way to stop the avalanche.
Onebadcad is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Onebadcad For This Useful Post:
Old 09-26-2022, 1:46pm   #10
DAB
Sparkles Flambeaux
Barn Stall Owner #4
Barn Raising I,II
NCM Supporter '13,'14,'15,'16,'17,'21
Bantayan Kids '13,'14,'15,'17
Points: 171,375, Level: 100
Activity: 7.2%
 
DAB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Santa Fe, NM
Posts: 61,433
Thanks: 11,767
Thanked 32,997 Times in 14,148 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $17500122
Default

i'm glad i got Dad's house sold last year.....
DAB is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to DAB For This Useful Post:
Old 09-26-2022, 1:46pm   #11
Onebadcad
Barn Stall Owner #116
Doesn't have a big thing
Points: 29,061, Level: 100
Activity: 99.8%
 
Onebadcad's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: NOBROCOSOFLO
Posts: 13,241
Thanks: 3,378
Thanked 8,815 Times in 4,381 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $500
Default

I have seen many new housing contracts in the past 24 months, a new clause added to most contracts state the builder determines the final contract price, as may increase from date of contract due to market pricing for materials and labor.

Also, I have not seen, but have been told, a buyer walking away from a contract due to their budgeting, obviously loses 100% of their earnest money / down payment, and MAY also be pursued for the differential in the contract price vs. final sales price to another party.
Onebadcad is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 1:52pm   #12
jw38
A Real Barner
Points: 5,215, Level: 49
Activity: 9.4%
 
jw38's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2022
Location: Spring Branch, TX
Posts: 1,170
Thanks: 4
Thanked 1,802 Times in 699 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $500
Default

#FJB
jw38 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to jw38 For This Useful Post:
Old 09-26-2022, 2:30pm   #13
LATB
A Real Barner
Points: 121,719, Level: 100
Activity: 99.3%
 
LATB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Green Acres is the place to be...
Posts: 36,859
Thanks: 6,233
Thanked 22,929 Times in 10,391 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $8122190
Default

Democrats doing what Democrats do best.
LATB is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to LATB For This Useful Post:
Old 09-26-2022, 2:36pm   #14
Aerovette
Chief Electrician
Barn Stall Owner #7734

Bantayan Kids '15
Points: 104,911, Level: 100
Activity: 99.2%
 
Aerovette's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: The corner of Cease Rd. and Desist St.
Posts: 43,838
Thanks: 16,804
Thanked 33,384 Times in 13,464 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $107478
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rodnok1 View Post
I agree with most of that...

Unemployment numbers are way off from actual numbers. Employers are slashing jobs and just not hiring.. That's gonna hurt more than anything.
I'm not sticking my neck out for any loan right now, i have 500 outstanding at most at any given time.

What I see as a plus...
Those of us that can budget and know how to save(or at least pay off stuff) will have bargains galore coming up. Pawn shops will be getting alot of business.

I know there will be a dividing line just as there was in the Great Depression. Those below the line sold everything cheap to survive, those above, bought every cheap thing to expand their footprint and assets.

I only hope I am above wherever that line is. I'd like to get a nice $5,000.00 C5
Aerovette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 3:24pm   #15
04 commemorative
A Real Barner
Points: 116,064, Level: 100
Activity: 79.9%
 
04 commemorative's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Down the Shore,New Jersey Elev.3 feet.
Posts: 18,345
Thanks: 4,516
Thanked 10,871 Times in 5,071 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $1007997
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dvarapala View Post
Just be glad it's not the 1980s with double-digit mortgage rates.
It will be soon
04 commemorative is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 3:41pm   #16
69L46
Vette Barn Crew
Points: 2,792, Level: 34
Activity: 17.8%
 
69L46's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
Posts: 653
Thanks: 255
Thanked 530 Times in 224 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $500
Default

8.0% rates by Thanksgiving will make for a pretty bleak Christmas throughout key sectors of the economy.

And as bad as it portends here, the decline of the £ makes things seem rosy by comparison.

British Lenders Pull Mortgage Deals With UK Markets in Turmoil
69L46 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 3:51pm   #17
bsmith
Bantayan Kids '13
Points: 20,549, Level: 99
Activity: 8.3%
 
bsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 4,797
Thanks: 586
Thanked 2,119 Times in 1,066 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $1002313
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aerovette View Post
I only hope I am above wherever that line is. I'd like to get a nice $5,000.00 C5
I've never been comfortable with debt, but when we bought new cars in 2020/2021, I actually financed part of them at 1.89% & 2.09% for 60 months, figuring it would be a long time until we see money that cheap again.
Plan was to sit on cash and be ready when shit hit the fan.

Sitting on cash sucks, seeing it devalued every day.

I go back and forth over what I should be doing right now.
bsmith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 4:45pm   #18
ratflinger
Barn Stall Owner #THX1138
Points: 15,580, Level: 86
Activity: 4.7%
 
ratflinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: South of San Antonio
Posts: 2,790
Thanks: 1,041
Thanked 2,192 Times in 988 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $1322
Default

Mortgage - WTF is that?
ratflinger is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to ratflinger For This Useful Post:
Old 09-26-2022, 4:46pm   #19
Dan47
Barn Stall Owner #106
Points: 23,962, Level: 100
Activity: 43.2%
 
Dan47's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
Posts: 15,026
Thanks: 12,372
Thanked 3,942 Times in 1,648 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $500
Default

I’m sitting on a big pile of cash waiting for “blood in the streets” but also stuck in miners down over 35%. Ouch!

Hard to predict what central planners will do in the future but they only have two choices, restart QE or don’t and both will result in a financial crisis of biblical proportions. Either a deflationary death spiral or hyperinflation or both.

Ludwig Von Mises pointed this out many decades ago but apparently most authorities didn’t care because they figured it would be someone else’s problem?

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

— Ludwig von Mises

Social fallout is going to be nuts.
Dan47 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2022, 5:18pm   #20
Datawiz
VB Dad of the Year
RDBM
Barn Stall Owner #9

Barn Raising I,II
NCM Supporter '11,'12,'13,'14,'15,'16,'17,'19,'20,'21
Bantayan Kids '13,'14,'15,'17
GTMS ‘18
Points: 123,315, Level: 100
Activity: 27.0%
 
Datawiz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Fort Myers
Posts: 36,497
Thanks: 10,141
Thanked 21,043 Times in 8,310 Posts
Gameroom Barn Bucks: $35999378
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob View Post
So were the 2% rates .... It's all about timing
I feel like a genius when my wife and I intentionally refinanced a 30 year with an adjustable rate that we were forced into by a family member's failure processing our previous mortgage. Old rate was on a 7/23 adjustable with a rate of 3.375%.

We switched to a 15 year at 2.675%. Being a 15 year, obviously payments per month went way up, but well within the monthly budget. On the old loan, our mortgage payment would have already increased $500-600/mo. and climbing with however many more rate hikes there are.

Bullet dodged!
Datawiz is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

The Vette Barn > Off Topic/Babes/Other > Off Topic


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:17pm.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2024 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © 2009 - 2024 The Vette Barn


Support the Barn:
 
Download the Mobile App;
 
Follow us on Facebook:

Become a Stall Owner

 

Apple iOS App        Google Android App

 

Visit our Facebook page