Electoral College Count for Friday August 3, 2012 --- Obama Leads Romney 281 - 257

[Will]

Electoral College Count for Friday August 3, 2012

Based on prior election results and The Washington Dispatch's comprehensive analysis of state and national polls, President Obama currently leads Mitt Romney 281 electoral votes to 257:



Based on data from current polls and historic voter turnout, Romney and Obama are in a virtual tie in swing states Colorado, Virginia, and Florida. Undecided voters historically favor the challenger over the incumbent, so for purposes of The Washington Dispatch's weekly Electoral College Count, Mr. Romney will be given the electoral votes of any swing state which the President leads by less than 1.0% based on The Washington Dispatch's in-depth analysis of demographic cross-tabs from current polls and historic turnout demographic information.

Despite their common categorization as swing states in the upcoming election, based on our analysis the President currently holds a solid advantage in Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. However this may change as the final 3 months of the race unfold. Based on current polling data and past election results, The Washington Dispatch does not project North Carolina or Indiana to be swing states in the upcoming election, and projects Mr. Romney to win these states comfortably despite the fact that they were carried by the President 4 years ago.

What is clear is that under all plausible scenarios for a Mitt Romney victory over the incumbent President Obama, Mr. Romney must win both Ohio and Florida. Mr. Romney currently trails President Obama by 4.1% in Ohio, and Ohio's 18 electoral votes would sway the race, in its current state, in Mr. Romney's favor as both he and the President sit a mere 12 electoral votes away, in opposite directions, from 269 -- the magic number needed for a change in Presidency (if the electoral vote ends in a 269-269 tie, the House of Representatives would break the tie. The House is currently controlled by a Republican majority).

Electoral College Count for Friday August 3, 2012

[Will]

Washington Dispatch Swing-State Polls: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio

Mitt Romney has pulled even with Barack Obama in crucial swing states Florida and Virginia:



Mitt Romney trails President Obama by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, in the two states.



The President, however, does hold a measurable lead in Ohio, with a 4.1% advantage over Mitt Romney.

Rob Portman's name has been floated in some circles as a possible Romney VP choice, and based on Mr. Romney's performance so far in these three swing states, Portman may be a wise choice and a fill bigger need for the Republican ticket than either Florida's Junior Senator Marco Rubio or Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell.



Methodology:

Rather than simply averaging the overall result of major swing-state polls pitting President Obama against Mitt Romney (as is done on sites like Real Clear Politics), The Washington Dispatch digs into the cross-tabs of data behind major national polls (those that freely publish the necessary data breaking down responses by party identification), and averages each candidates' share of the vote among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Then, these shares are applied to the actual turnout by party identification in each state (as measured by CNN's comprehensive exit polling in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010) for the past four national elections. To calculate poll numbers for The Washington Dispatch's official head-to-head match-up between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, each candidates' average share of the vote by party affiliation is applied to the average turnout by party affiliation in each state over the past four national elections.

Washington Dispatch Swing-State Polls: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio

[Taurus]

I live in the polls so I know how to read these as well as how they are sampled. I have studied all the swing states and the various polls conducted. Personally, I feel we're too early for polls to mean much, but having said that, here's what I feel.

Florida; Done deal for Romney. Latest polls have him down 1% - 2% but the sampling was biased by 8%. I don't see him losing here.

Ohio; A little more difficult, but the latest polls were biased by 7% which puts Romney ahead by 2% to 4% depending on the poll once corrected.

Virginia; Again, a done deal for Romney. Already a dead heat statistically means a 4% bias in the latest poll with a trend showing Romney gaining and Obama losing.

Michigan; Also biased by 8%, this puts Romney up by 4%.

Penn; Don't think Romney can pull this one out, big cities in the east will carry the state.

Colorado; Looks like a Romney state as well where he has erased a 7 basis point deficit to a small lead and the trend is in his favor.

Nevada and New Hampshire are suddenly swing states as well. Nevada will most likely go Romney as he was ahead as of today and the Mormon vote will pull him through as they represent 10% of the voters. New Hampshire will be an Obama state but just the fact that it is also a statistical tie as of today says quite a bit.

Just how I see it as I look at all the polls and sampling used. I think the real key will be how the parties turn out to vote. Republicans seem to have more enthusiasm than Democrats right now. That final 10% of undecided will choose the next president and THEY HAVE ALWAYS VOTED AGAINST THE INCUMBENT.

[Fasglas]

I see Republicans FAR more enthusiastic about this election, and gaining as time passes.
Voter turnout is KEY.

[Taurus]

Without Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania my count based on the above is Romney 287, Obama 251. I feel this is very realistic.

Try it yourself;

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#_

[Chris Fowler]

Need Ohio...

[Will]

Originally Posted by Taurus

I live in the polls so I know how to read these as well as how they are sampled. I have studied all the swing states and the various polls conducted. Personally, I feel we're too early for polls to mean much, but having said that, here's what I feel.

I adjust for sampling bias FYI. Based on actual past turnout on average, Romney and Obama are tied in Florida and Virginia (and Colorado, but I don't have a full sample size there yet). I do think this puts them in the Romney camp, because undecideds will not go 50+% to the incumbent.

I'm just not seeing New Hampshire. Independents in New Hampshire polling are favoring Obama, and they'll probably end up being 45% of the vote in NH.

Michigan is an impossibility based on turnout. Even if turnout favors Pubs as much as in 2010, Romney would need 65+ % of the independent vote. Not happening. Michigan is a pipe dream.

Nevada is inexplicably a state that is polling well for Obama thus far. I don't get it. Nevada is wrecked economically and has suffered as much or more than any other state from the Obama "recovery." I can't wait for heavy polling activity to really pick up there.

[Will]

I also feel good about Florida and Colorado because they are two states where Republican turnout has been at its best in recent history. In fact, the 2004-2012 average has Republicans ahead in turnout share by 1 to 1.5% in Florida and Colorado. Usually Republicans are at a disadvantage, and a good year is when they pull even. Not so in CO and FL - GREAT turnout states for the GOP.

[Will]

In the NH polls I have so far, Obama has an average lead of 12 points among independents. That's why I just don't like it right now. That average includes a recent Rasmussen poll, a pollster that has been accused of leaning right a point or two.

Of course, things can change. But as of 8/3/12, NH not looking good due to independent vote.

Michigan is just too blue. Average turnout share of 40% for democrats. I have a full sample of polls, and Romney leads among independents by 4%, but STILL losing overall by 8%. Too many democrats, and they always turnout to right at 40% of the vote in Michigan.

[Taurus]

Originally Posted by Will

I adjust for sampling bias FYI. Based on actual past turnout on average, Romney and Obama are tied in Florida and Virginia (and Colorado, but I don't have a full sample size there yet). I do think this puts them in the Romney camp, because undecideds will not go 50+% to the incumbent.

I'm just not seeing New Hampshire. Independents in New Hampshire polling are favoring Obama, and they'll probably end up being 45% of the vote in NH.

Michigan is an impossibility based on turnout. Even if turnout favors Pubs as much as in 2010, Romney would need 65+ % of the independent vote. Not happening. Michigan is a pipe dream.

Nevada is inexplicably a state that is polling well for Obama thus far. I don't get it. Nevada is wrecked economically and has suffered as much or more than any other state from the Obama "recovery." I can't wait for heavy polling activity to really pick up there.

Just curious, I also am adjusting based on last year's turn out. I take the sampling and adjust out the difference on the turn out from 2008 by state and the current trend. Don't you think those are skewed a bit? After all, McCain was a much weaker candidate in 2008 than Romney is in 2012. Also, we're talking about taking an incumbent out of office which I think energizes the base much more in favor of the Republicans.

Also, watch Nevada. I am very confident that Romney will carry the state. It is a statistical tie within the margin for error before the bias is backed out. The Mormons will carry that state. They do not participate in polls and do not discuss their vote. They will vote red in 2012. There are 200,000 Mormon in Nevada and about 70,000 are registered voters in a state that had 900,000total turn out to vote in 2008.

[Will]

Originally Posted by Taurus

Just curious, I also am adjusting based on last year's turn out.

Eeeehhhhh. There's our difference. I am being FAR more conservative from a Republican perspective. I am using the 2004-2006-2008-2010 average. I don't see 2008 happening again, but I also don't see our side having as big an advantage as in 2010 either.


What I actually do is take the individual numbers for Dems/Pubs/Independents in each poll, and average them out. Then apply that average to the average share of turnout to get my numbers:




As you can see, I include the numbers for each individual past year's turnout as well.

[Taurus]

Originally Posted by Will

Eeeehhhhh. There's our difference. I am being FAR more conservative from a Republican perspective. I am using the 2004-2006-2008-2010 average. I don't see 2008 happening again, but I also don't see our side having as big an advantage as in 2010 either.


What I actually do is take the individual numbers for Dems/Pubs/Independents in each poll, and average them out. Then apply that average to the average share of turnout to get my numbers:




As you can see, I include the numbers for each individual past year's turnout as well.

You are correct. It really all comes down to how much you discount the results in 2008.

[Will]

Originally Posted by Taurus

I live in the polls so I know how to read these as well as how they are sampled.

Do you work for a polling firm or something similar, or is it just a hobby for you?

Just a hobby for me, but man I'd love work that involves this kind of stuff or the economic stuff I do on the Washington Dispatch site.

[Taurus]

Originally Posted by Will

Do you work for a polling firm or something similar, or is it just a hobby for you?

Just a hobby for me, but man I'd love work that involves this kind of stuff or the economic stuff I do on the Washington Dispatch site.

Just a hobby. My degree is in Economics with post grad work in Statistical Probability. Anything with numbers is an interest of mine.

I find it so dishonest to publish an over biased polls. Some polls like last week's NBC/NY Times poll was commissioned through Quinnipiac University. The people doing the polls are required to give all polling data to to the entity paying for the poll, in this case NBC/ NY Times, however the people that pay for the poll can choose what they release. This gives the a license to be very misleading.

[RedLS1GTO]

Voter enthusiasm among Democrats is down "significantly" this summer compared to the same time during the 2004 and 2008 presidential election cycles, according to a new USA Today-Gallup Poll.
The poll found enthusiasm for Democrats this summer is 39 percent, down from 68 percent in summer 2004 and 61 percent in summer 2008.
Meanwhile, Republicans are more enthusiastic now than they were at the same time during the 2008 presidential election cycle but have the same enthusiasm as they did at the same time during the 2004 presidential cycle.
Fifty-one percent of Republicans said they are "more enthusiastic than usual about voting," compared to 35 percent in 2008 and 51 percent in 2004.
The survey was taken from July 19 to 22 and shows Republicans have widened the so-called “enthusiasm gap” – from 8 percentage points in February to 12 percentage points now, according to Gallup.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...#ixzz22gIH4dqB

Polls can be skewed to say whatever you want them to say as we all know but based on people that I know, these numbers don't seem too far out of line.

I don't think the difference will be an insane (R) turnout but rather a significantly lower (D) turnout. Just take a minute to remember the people coming out of the woodwork who have absolutely no clue or care about politics so they could vote for odumbass last time. I don't see that happening again.

[VITE1]

I don't believe the NH numbers. Mitt has had better numbers here for the last few months. We went hard right int he 2010 election and we are still moving right. Mitt will get NH.

[Will]

Washington Dispatch Poll of Polls for August 6, 2012: Romney Leads Obama

Mitt Romney (46.3%) leads Barack Obama (45.5%) by 0.8% nationally in the Washington Dispatch Poll of Polls for Monday, August 6, 2012.

Washington Dispatch Poll of Polls for August 6, 2012: Romney Leads Obama


Links to individual polls and methodology at the site.