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Old 02-02-2012, 12:03pm   #1
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Default Swing States

Per O'Reilly's Talking Points spiel on 2/1/2012.


These states will carry the Republican candidate
AK 3
ID 4
MT 3
WY 3
UT 6
AZ 11
ND 3
SD 3
NE 5
KS 6
OK 7
TX 38
LA 8
MS 6
AR 6
MO 10
AL 9
GA 16
SC 9
TN 11
KY 8
IN 11
WV 5 ... Total 191 electoral votes Republican candidate

These states will carry the Democratic candidate
HI 4
WA 12
OR 7
CA 55
MN 10
IL 20
ME 4
VT 3
NY 29
NJ 14
MD 10
DE 3
CT 7
RI 4
MA 11
DC 3 ... Total 196 electoral votes for Obama

"Twelve Swing States"
NV 6
CO 9
NM 5
FL 29
IA 6
WI 10
MI 16
OH 18
NH 4
PA 20
VA 13
NC 15 ... Total 151 electoral votes up for grabs



Totals:

Republican: 191 (needs 79 to get 270 electoral votes to win Presidential Election)
Democrat: 196 (needs 74 to get 270 electoral votes to win Presidential Election)
Swing: 151

Interestingly, according to Gallup, in all twelve swing states, Obama currently does NOT have an approval rating above 50%.

I live in a swing state (FL). I'll be putting up signs in my yard (I live on a major U.S. Highway). I'll also be campaigning for whomever the Republican nominee winds up being.

LET'S DO THIS!!!


Bill O'Reilly: Talking Points Memo - Bill O'Reilly: President Obama and your approval
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Old 02-02-2012, 12:05pm   #2
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I live in a swing state (FL). I'll be putting up signs in my yard (I live on a major U.S. Highway). I'll also be campaigning for whomever the Republican nominee winds up being.
A neighbor has Romney...Newt...and Santorum signs in his front yard.
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Old 02-02-2012, 12:05pm   #3
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You really think putting a sign in your yard makes some kind of difference?
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Old 02-02-2012, 12:10pm   #4
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You really think putting a sign in your yard makes some kind of difference?
No, Phil.

Political advertisement makes NO difference, whatsoever.


You keep thinking that.
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Old 02-02-2012, 2:06pm   #5
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Thanks to the 2010 census and the fact that so many American have fled shit-hole blue states so they could actually find work, the electoral math has swung more in our favor.

Mitt Romney won't even have to win as many swing states as Bush did to win the election.

If Romney can win the McCain states, and regain the South by taking back states like Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina where Obama BARELY won even in the 2008 national landslide, then in order to win the election Romney only needs to win the following additional swing states that Obama won in 2008:

Ohio
Indiana
New Hampshire

Unlike Bush, Romney doesn't need Colorado. He doesn't need Nevada.

Romney can LOSE Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa combined and still win. Bush couldn't.

Important factor to keep in mind. 2012 Electoral math is different than 2000, 2004, and 2008.
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Old 02-02-2012, 2:09pm   #6
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Originally Posted by Will
Thanks to the 2010 census and the fact that so many American have fled shit-hole blue states so they could actually find work, the electoral math has swung more in our favor.

Mitt Romney won't even have to win as many swing states as Bush did to win the election.

If Romney can win the McCain states, and regain the South by taking back states like Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina where Obama BARELY won even in the 2008 national landslide, then in order to win the election Romney only needs to win the following additional swing states that Obama won in 2008:

Ohio
Indiana
New Hampshire

Unlike Bush, Romney doesn't need Colorado. He doesn't need Nevada.

Romney can LOSE Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa combined and still win. Bush couldn't.

Important factor to keep in mind. 2012 Electoral math is different than 2000, 2004, and 2008.
How is the math different?
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Old 02-02-2012, 5:45pm   #7
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How is the math different?
Different combinations of states that can give 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win.

Texas +4
Florida +2
Arizona +1
Georgia +1

Nevada +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1

Washington +1
Illinois -1

Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1

Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
Pennsylvania -1
New York -2

Ohio -2



So, in total the net electoral vote change from 2008 to 2012 is as follows:

Solid Red States +6

Swing States +/-0

Solid Blue States -6
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Old 02-02-2012, 10:31pm   #8
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Originally Posted by Will View Post
Different combinations of states that can give 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win.

Texas +4
Florida +2
Arizona +1
Georgia +1

Nevada +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1

Washington +1
Illinois -1

Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1

Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
Pennsylvania -1
New York -2

Ohio -2



So, in total the net electoral vote change from 2008 to 2012 is as follows:

Solid Red States +6

Swing States +/-0

Solid Blue States -6
Cool! Thanks, Will!

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Old 02-03-2012, 2:02pm   #9
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BTW, I define "Solid Red" states as states that voted for Bush and McCain in 2000, 2004, and 2008.

"Solid Blue" states went for Gore, Kerry, and Obama in 2000, 2004, and 2008.

Swing states went both ways in that time period.

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Old 02-03-2012, 5:10pm   #10
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Originally Posted by Will
BTW, I define "Solid Red" states as states that voted for Bush and McCain in 2000, 2004, and 2008.

"Solid Blue" states went for Gore, Kerry, and Obama in 2000, 2004, and 2008.

Swing states went both ways in that time period.

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