Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[Sea Six]

Page 5!!

[Will]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

I'm up 18.5% ytd.

14.3% for us ytd.

Our conservative and low U.S. market correlation assets are dragging us down.

But I'm staying disciplined. That day/decade will come when international beats domestic again, when boring REITs & Utilities shine, etc.

It kills me not just throwing buckets of money at Nvidia hand over fist. It's now up 30% ytd. What's really going to hurt is selling shares come rebalancing time at the end of the year/beginning of 2019. Ugh.

[DAB]

little more....

2899.2

[Will]

PE10 and 10 Year T-Bond correlation of -0.65
P/E and 10 Year T-Bond correlation of -0.53

Originally Posted by Ben Reynolds; Aug. 22, 2018

Using the slope and intercept above combined with the current 10 Year T-Bond yield of 2.82%, we get the following:

• Fair price-to-earnings ratio of 25.8
• Current price-to-earnings ratio of 24.8

Using PE10 tells a similar story:

• Fair PE10 ratio of 27.0
• Current PE10 ratio of 32.8

Based on today’s still low interest rate, the market is actually trading around fair value today using the P/E ratio. It is somewhat overvalued using the PE10 ratio, in part due to depressed earnings near the end of the Great Recession, and in part due to higher earnings today from lower corporate tax rates.

https://www.suredividend.com/interest-rates-valuation/

[Will]

As mentioned by the author quoted above, PE10 includes the distortive data from the "GREAT RECESSION" in 2008-2009.

On that note, if you like CAPE, then what happens if instead of CAPE 10, you use CAPE 8 and adjust for changes over time?

Originally Posted by Larry Swedroe; August 8, 2018

While the current U.S. CAPE 10 is 33, the current CAPE 8—which has about the same explanatory power as the CAPE 10 but excludes the very bad and temporarily depressed earnings figures from 2008 and 2009—is 5 points lower at 28. (Comparable figures for non-U.S. developed and emerging markets are about 19 and 15, respectively.)

That’s not all that much higher than the CAPE 10’s mean of 25.6 from 1990 through April 2018. A CAPE ratio of 28 results in an earnings yield of 3.6%, while a CAPE ratio of 25.6 results in an earnings yield of 3.9%. That’s not much of a difference. It is also just 1 percentage point lower than the average CAPE 10 earnings yield of 4.6% for the period starting from 1980. There’s no way to know if that is the right earnings yield.

Additionally, if we use the CAPE 8 of 28, and make the adjustments for the accounting changes and the reduction in dividends, we get what we might call an adjusted CAPE 8 of about 23.5.

https://www.etf.com/sections/swedroe...igh?nopaging=1

[DAB]

ok, i understood parts of that.

[DAB]

there you go:

2907.29

[Will]

AMZN $2000 is happening this week. BELIEVE IT.

NVDA $300 by Q4??? Earlier???

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

So How is you're 401k's looking now ?
I'm up 18.5% ytd.
Going for 24% three years in a row...
Gideeup !!

S&P 2875 was last Friday's close. Let's keep it in perspective. Nothing goes straight up. If it closes above that on Friday, the trend is still our friend.

2875 was the S&P close last Friday.
It closed at 2901 today.
Higher highs and higher lows.
We are in the sweet spot.... That is, if you're long.
A Goldilocks economy.....
Enjoy

[DAB]

If no change tomorrow, we’ll have made more this month than I made out of college in a year.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by DAB

If no change tomorrow, we’ll have made more this month than I made out of college in a year.

[Will]

We're getting close to Amazon $1 Trillion. Less than $2/share away.

Wish I owned more of it. Oh well.

AMZN and NVDA are killing it for us. Since we have to pay commission on individual stock purchases, I bought about 3x my target allocation for each when I bought.

I thought it would take about a year off monthly contributions to the rest of our investments for them to settle in, but at this rate I have no idea when they'll hit the mark since they just keep outpacing everything, even our aggressive growth ETFs.

[Bill]

[DAB]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...150241411.html

he's going to have to sell a shit ton of shoes to make back 3.75 billion in lost market value.

oops.

what's that? a pair of Nikes and some New Coke?! great ideas!!!

[Will]

Sure, why not.

Twitter

[Will]

Eagerly anticipating the upcoming Trump tweet with Jaime Dimon's new derogatory nickname.

[Jeff '79]

So the S&P closed at 2905 on Friday.
Discounting the holiday week, the week before, that is higher, week over week from the previous week, when the S&P closed at 2901.
The trend is still our friend, even with all of the trade war stuff, the doom & gloom predictions, and white noise in the background.

Gidee-up !!

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

So the S&P closed at 2905 on Friday.
Discounting the holiday week, the week before, that is higher, week over week from the previous week, when the S&P closed at 2901.
The trend is still our friend, even with all of the trade war stuff, the doom & gloom predictions, and white noise in the background.

Gidee-up !!

[Will]

The doom and gloom predictions mostly seem to be based on the lie that we're "due" for a bear market because this is the longest bull ever.

20% rule of thumb they use thrown out the window to call periods like 1990 a bear market.

[Will]

Nevermind the fact the markets don't turn because of the date on the calendar.

Nothing alarming here: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/...i/current-data

Or here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI