80% 20% explained by an expert.

[MrPeabody]

Originally Posted by C3C7NIC

And despite the repeated implications, I am not telling anyone to panic. Happy medium.

Damn. I love panic. It's a great excuse to drink more.

[Steve_R]

Originally Posted by C3C7NIC

What was the value for your area?

You can read all the specifics, but here is the gist of how the numbers are calculated:

In the Harvard team’s moderate scenario — where 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over the course of a year — 98.9 million Americans would contract the coronavirus, though many will have mild or no symptoms, and will not have their diagnoses confirmed by tests. Slightly more than a fifth of all cases will require hospitalization. (That’s roughly the average number of patients requiring hospitalization in other countries.)

21 confirmed cases in our county with one hospitalization, so 5%. Yeah, I know, small data set so large error.

FL has 14,504 confirmed cases with 1,777 hospitalizations for a rate of 12.6%. Not close to 20%

From a story an hour ago:

Jim Malatras, an aide for Gov. Cuomo, also said that new projections are showing New York will need far fewer than the original number of 110,000 hospital beds that was predicted. The new numbers indicate it will be closer to 20,000-30,000.

How many more times can the .gov cry Wolf!!! before the population stops believing them?

[Rodnok1]

Originally Posted by Mick

You, and people like you, ARE the problem, don't you see? We are not supposed to be thinking rationally here. We are supposed to be PANICKING! Now straighten up, get out there, and hoard TP like everyone else!

...

[Mick]

Originally Posted by C3C7NIC

And despite the repeated implications, I am not telling anyone to panic.

Did someone say you did?

[Mick]

Originally Posted by Rodnok1

...

Well, at least you didn't poop on the rug, yet.

[C3C7NIC]

Originally Posted by MrPeabody

Damn. I love panic. It's a great excuse to drink more.

I can drink to that.

[BOTY]

Originally Posted by Mick

Well, at least you didn't poop on the rug, yet.

[C3C7NIC]

Originally Posted by aerovette

Here's a Happy Medium...

[99 pewtercoupe]

Originally Posted by Mick

Well, at least you didn't poop on the rug, yet.

Did someone check the back room? I smell something

[Mick]

I'm sure some of you will be crushed by this news, but I feel a need to post it anyway:

The US did NOT reach 400K cases today, so the doubling from 200K to 400K will take at least SEVEN days. Previous doubling was five days, the one before that was three days.

Cliffs: STILL not growing exponentially.

[BOTY]

Originally Posted by Mick

I'm sure some of you will be crushed by this news, but I feel a need to post it anyway:

The US did NOT reach 400K cases today, so the doubling from 200K to 400K will take at least SEVEN days. Previous doubling was five days, the one before that was three days.

Cliffs: STILL not growing exponentially.

K thnacks.

[BOTY]

Originally Posted by 99 pewtercoupe

Did someone check the back room? I smell something

Hal.

[Cybercowboy]

Not sure about you guys but I'm a little pissed off at how horrid their models didn't match reality. Just, ya know, sayin.

#flyovermakeover

[Millenium Vette]

Originally Posted by Cybercowboy

Not sure about you guys but I'm a little pissed off at how horrid their models didn't match reality. Just, ya know, sayin.

#flyovermakeover

I am not pissed, just shocked at how shitty the expert's models are. I just figured since they are the experts there is no need for me to think at all, since I am not an expert. Plus, lifelong bureaucrats have a great track record of always being right.....

[Bill]

Originally Posted by Cybercowboy

Not sure about you guys but I'm a little pissed off at how horrid their models didn't match reality. Just, ya know, sayin.

#flyovermakeover

Same people who said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning, and were Hillary's biggest admirers who were in awe of her lying her way through hours of perjuring herself....those folks.

[Raazor]

We successfully flattened the curve (next Monday apparently). By shutting down our state, we saved 40 to 50 people from getting the COVID bug and freed up possibly 1s of hospital beds.

[Raazor]

Originally Posted by Mick

Cliffs: STILL not growing exponentially.

How about CA? They've got to be in the millions by now

[Steve_R]

Originally Posted by Raazor

We successfully flattened the curve (next Monday apparently). By shutting down our state, we saved 40 to 50 people from getting the COVID bug and freed up possibly 1s of hospital beds.

How many other deaths, along with destroyed businesses and bankruptcies, were caused by the shutdown?

While the mass media is screaming right now that OMG, THE U.S. HAS MORE CONFIRMED CASES THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY!!! here's what they choose to ignore.

Here are three graphs. Using the exact same data for confirmed number of cases, the first graph of total cases makes the U.S. look REALLY SCARY. When you normalize that same data into a case rate - the only valid way to compare between different countries - it changes the story just a bit.

The third graph of normalized deaths also says we're doing pretty damn good in the U.S.

It's time to start relaxing things and stop destroying the economy, lives and businesses.

[Steve_R]

Buzz, you know Dougvarapala will be along soon to tell us why we're wrong, why the sky really is falling, and then he'll show us how CA will get to 25.5 million confirmed cases in less than six weeks.

[Aerovette]

Originally Posted by Raazor

How about CA? They've got to be in the millions by now

The good news is that China has had no new cases and no deaths for about a week.