80% 20% explained by an expert.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by Steve_R

As testing increases the raw numbers of positive (and negative) results will increase. Stevie Wonder could see that coming.

Testing here - you’re supposed to have at least one symptom to be tested - is running 90% negative.

Exactly what I was saying with "data noise". Changes in number of tests available, and therefore, changes in the protocol of who gets tested, introduce noise to the data. Differences in how doctors decide who "died from COVID19" introduce noise into the data. There are probably dozens, or maybe even hundreds of other confounding variables. Over time, most of this shit should normalize, but right now, we just have to deal with the fact that the data is rough.

They wouldn't have paid me what they paid me in Corporate America if I demanded that business decisions wait until the supporting data had normalized.

[The_Dude]

Originally Posted by Anjdog2003

I don't walk and live in fear. I don't listen to the media. And in a couple of month when they say it's ok to go back living the way we used to because you wearing mask and gloves and staying 6 ft apart did it. Next year they'll have CoronaVires20 but will only have too wear one glove stay 3 ft apart and a mask will be optional.

CoronaJackson5

[Steve_R]

Originally Posted by Mick

Exactly what I was saying with "data noise". Changes in number of tests available, and therefore, changes in the protocol of who gets tested, introduce noise to the data. Differences in how doctors decide who "died from COVID19" introduce noise into the data. There are probably dozens, or maybe even hundreds of other confounding variables. Over time, most of this shit should normalize, but right now, we just have to deal with the fact that the data is rough.

Noise in data? Confounding variables? Normalize? You know that’s greek to most people, right? I’m convinced they don’t teach basic math or statistics any more. Discussions over there about “exponential increase” prove it. Hell, ask 10 smart adults the difference between mean and median and you’ll get mostly blank stares. The data set on this virus right now is so small, making the error so large, that you can make it say anything you want - but you obviously know that.

[Murray]

Originally Posted by Mick

YOUR analysis is correct. It took 5 days for US total cases to double from a week ago. It will probably take 3 more days to get past 400,000, which would be another doubling. In other words, doubling about every 5 days.

This was my whole point, that cases doubling every 2-3 days as was the media-pushed hysteria of a week ago (of which the article you posted from a week ago is a perfect example), were wrong, and the data has proven that out.
:

Okay I’ll make this short as I can....

The article was about the fact the numbers doubled in 3 days, it wasn’t a guess, it was a fact, something you say didn’t happen.

This was the headline.....



US coronavirus cases top 100,000, doubling in three days

[Mick]

Originally Posted by Murray

Okay I’ll make this short as I can....

The article was about the fact the numbers doubled in 3 days, it wasn’t a guess, it was a fact, something you say didn’t happen.

This was the headline.....



US coronavirus cases top 100,000, doubling in three days

So, you agreed, then deleted your post and now don't agree? I just want to make sure I have that correct. Thanks.

[Murray]

Originally Posted by Mick

So, you agreed, then deleted your post and now don't agree? I just want to make sure I have that correct. Thanks.

It’s like you’re Doug, but smarter. It was easier to agree than go down that road.

Then I read your response after a heated discussion with my wife’s aunt and decided I wouldn’t let you get away with being wrong.

What you say never happened did happen.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by Murray

It’s like you’re Doug, but smarter. It was easier to agree than go down that road.

Then I read your response after a heated discussion with my wife’s aunt and decided I wouldn’t let you get away with being wrong.

What you say never happened did happen.

What you say never happened did happen. The difference between the two of us is that you are still butt hurt about it more than 2 YEARS later, and I am not.

You and Nikki call me "Doug" in an effort to go straight to personal insults when you realize that you have no counter-argument. Both or your tactics are highly predictable, just like Doug's, which is why I don't bother to argue with him any more. But go ahead, and try to make the semantic argument about exactly what the title of the article was, and how you feel that invalidates any skepticism of the content of the entire article. I'll expect you to move the goal posts numerous times, and play the victim repeatedly.

And I expect Nikki to tell me I am ugly and that she doesn't like my hair any time now.

[Murray]

And since you’re into numbers here’s some with no noise

Registered or known cases in USA 276,965

Of those cases, the number with a full recovery is 12,283

The number of deaths is 7,391

Those are all hard numbers, no guesses.

The US percentage of death vs recovered in closed cases is staggering.

Canada is sitting at 8 %

Stay safe ❤️

Can you see how serious this is?

[Murray]

Originally Posted by Mick

What you say never happened did happen. The difference between the two of us is that you are still butt hurt about it more than 2 YEARS later, and I am not.

You and Nikki call me "Doug" in an effort to go straight to personal insults when you realize that you have no counter-argument. Both or your tactics are highly predictable, just like Doug's, which is why I don't bother to argue with him any more. But go ahead, and try to make the semantic argument about exactly what the title of the article was, and how you feel that invalidates any skepticism of the content of the entire article. I'll expect you to move the goal posts numerous times, and play the victim repeatedly.

And I expect Nikki to tell me I am ugly and that she doesn't like my hair any time now.

Okay, I’ll try one more time.

You stated the news was saying 2-3 weeks ago that cases would double in 2-3 days.

You said it was in fact every 5 days (today’s stats maybe ) (I’m guessing)

I link an article from a week ago stating they doubled in 3 days (like you say never happened) and I’m somehow moving the goal posts

As far as two years ago, you stated I did something to another member that never happened, many people agreed and you’ve yet to apologize for it.

So not only were you wrong then, you’re wrong now and at no time will you be man enough to admit either time.

My statement “what you say never happened did happen”was referring to the case numbers doubling in 3 days, not something from two years ago.

[C3C7NIC]

Originally Posted by Mick

What you say never happened did happen. The difference between the two of us is that you are still butt hurt about it more than 2 YEARS later, and I am not.

You and Nikki call me "Doug" in an effort to go straight to personal insults when you realize that you have no counter-argument. Both or your tactics are highly predictable, just like Doug's, which is why I don't bother to argue with him any more. But go ahead, and try to make the semantic argument about exactly what the title of the article was, and how you feel that invalidates any skepticism of the content of the entire article. I'll expect you to move the goal posts numerous times, and play the victim repeatedly.

And I expect Nikki to tell me I am ugly and that she doesn't like my hair any time now.

Originally Posted by Mick

Where did I say I didn't believe the numbers? In fact, I am using numbers from the same sites you have linked in your own posts, so it is implicit in my posts that I DO believe the numbers. If you have sites with data you think is superior, post them up, and I would be happy to look at those numbers.

But you won't, because you can't seem to handle the fact that someone has a different view than you.

Originally Posted by Mick

YOUR analysis is correct. It took 5 days for US total cases to double from a week ago. It will probably take 3 more days to get past 400,000, which would be another doubling. In other words, doubling about every 5 days.

This was my whole point, that cases doubling every 2-3 days as was the media-pushed hysteria of a week ago (of which the article you posted from a week ago is a perfect example), were wrong, and the data has proven that out.

AFAIK, I have made no statement, inference, or implication that I "don't believe" the data. But as usual, we have some drama queens in here who MUST read a bunch of stuff into posts that just plain isn't there.

FWIW: I do believe the data is very noisy. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, and no one who has ever worked in any data analysis field, like ever, would expect to get data that isn't noisy, especially early on in a growth curve like we are now. This is one of the reasons why I have specifically pointed out IN THIS VERY THREAD that we were working with a tiny data set here. Yes, it is growing, but the data set is still very small. This is nothing more than a recognition of reality, and does not mean in any way that I "don't believe the numbers".

Da fuq is your deal man?

I was having fun in this thread till....

I've been busy actually working a 12 hour shift today.

Pretty sure I can identify the one here being the drama queen.

Need me to prescribe some nerve pills for ya?

Jeebus Chris!

Gonna go and treat myself to a few cold drinks.

Have fun Doug~E (2)

[Anjdog2003]

Originally Posted by The_Dude

CoronaJackson5

I have the CoronaJackson2,3, and 4 Album.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by Murray

As far as two years ago, you stated I did something to another member that never happened, many people agreed and you’ve yet to apologize for it.

Then I have no idea what you are talking about. 2+ years ago, I said you posted some shit to me, IC, and Neece, intended to piss us off, and then later deleted it. You admitted to doing it. AFAIK, no other poster ever said different. Your behavior in this thread tonight only supports my assertion that this is your MO.

You said some other shit happened, that I accused you of doing something someone else did, which I don't believe ever happened, but 2+ years ago I said it was possible I quoted the wrong post and made it look like that, but we'll never know because you and some other folks were so far over the line that night that the whole thread got boneyarded. But yeah, you're still butt hurt that I never gave some apology that you think I owed, even though I let go of the butt hurt from what you posted to me years ago that you admitted to without ever apologizing to me.

To make a long story short: enjoy your butt hurt. You can't let it go, but I'm the one who is "Doug"?

[Mick]

Originally Posted by C3C7NIC

Da fuq is your deal man?

I was having fun in this thread till....

I've been busy actually working a 12 hour shift today.

Pretty sure I can identify the one here being the drama queen.

Need me to prescribe some nerve pills for ya?

Jeebus Chris!

Gonna go and treat myself to a few cold drinks.

Have fun Doug~E (2)

Maybe we should spar.

[BOTY]

Originally Posted by Mick

Then I have no idea what you are talking about. 2+ years ago, I said you posted some shit to me, IC, and Neece, intended to piss us off, and then later deleted it. You admitted to doing it. AFAIK, no other poster ever said different. Your behavior in this thread tonight only supports my assertion that this is your MO.

You said some other shit happened, that I accused you of doing something someone else did, which I don't believe ever happened, but 2+ years ago I said it was possible I quoted the wrong post and made it look like that, but we'll never know because you and some other folks were so far over the line that night that the whole thread got boneyarded. But yeah, you're still butt hurt that I never gave some apology that you think I owed, even though I let go of the butt hurt from what you posted to me years ago that you admitted to without ever apologizing to me.

To make a long story short: enjoy your butt hurt. You can't let it go, but I'm the one who is "Doug"?

I spit-roasted IC and for good reason, so there is that. It wasn't Murray, the you and Neece thing IDK.

[BOTY]

Originally Posted by BOTY

I spit-roasted IC and for good reason, so there is that. It wasn't Murray, the you and Neece thing IDK.

In addition I seldom if ever delete any post. I have the scars to prove it.

[Cybercowboy]

Originally Posted by Murray

And since you’re into numbers here’s some with no noise

Registered or known cases in USA 276,965

Of those cases, the number with a full recovery is 12,283

The number of deaths is 7,391

Those are all hard numbers, no guesses.

The US percentage of death vs recovered in closed cases is staggering.

Canada is sitting at 8 %

Stay safe ❤️

Can you see how serious this is?

What if you found out that people show up with symptoms, aren’t tested, and then are sent home. And counted as a known case. With 94-98% of the number with symptoms (according to Dr. Birx) not actually having the virus when tested you can draw your own conclusions.

This isn’t the case everywhere. Maybe.

[Murray]

Originally Posted by Mick

Then I have no idea what you are talking about. 2+ years ago, I said you posted some shit to me, IC, and Neece, intended to piss us off, and then later deleted it. You admitted to doing it. AFAIK, no other poster ever said different. Your behavior in this thread tonight only supports my assertion that this is your MO.

You said some other shit happened, that I accused you of doing something someone else did, which I don't believe ever happened, but 2+ years ago I said it was possible I quoted the wrong post and made it look like that, but we'll never know because you and some other folks were so far over the line that night that the whole thread got boneyarded. But yeah, you're still butt hurt that I never gave some apology that you think I owed, even though I let go of the butt hurt from what you posted to me years ago that you admitted to without ever apologizing to me.

To make a long story short: enjoy your butt hurt. You can't let it go, but I'm the one who is "Doug"?

You are a drama queen. I deleted “agreed” and your going off like I posted pics of your wife naked. I admitted I did it and explained why.

Now you can understand why because “agreed” was far easier than what this became. You were wrong, no biggie, sorry you can’t deal with it.

As far a Neece is concerned I posted something in the heat of the battle, thought better of it and deleted it. It had **** all to do with you until you stuck your fat nose in the middle of it and questioned me about it.

If you’re the forum police on deleted posts, I’ll be sure to ask your permission the next time I feel inclined.

Again, as seen here, like I said before, “agreed” was the easy way out. Seek help man

[Murray]

Originally Posted by Cybercowboy

What if you found out that people show up with symptoms, aren’t tested, and then are sent home. And counted as a known case. With 94-98% of the number with symptoms (according to Dr. Birx) not actually having the virus when tested you can draw your own conclusions.

This isn’t the case everywhere. Maybe.

If you think they are counting people with some of the symptoms, then they are 80-100 million short on their numbers but you are allowed to believe as you wish

[Millenium Vette]

Originally Posted by Cybercowboy

What if you found out that people show up with symptoms, aren’t tested, and then are sent home. And counted as a known case. With 94-98% of the number with symptoms (according to Dr. Birx) not actually having the virus when tested you can draw your own conclusions.

This isn’t the case everywhere. Maybe.

You should know better than to question the numbers. If they are put out there, they MUST be accurate.....

Originally Posted by Murray

If you think they are counting people with some of the symptoms, then they are 80-100 million short on their numbers but you are allowed to believe as you wish

Since we are allowed to believe as we wish, per your edict, here is what I believe:

The "models" they use to get these numbers are ****ed up. I don't trust the people who come up with this stuff. I am skeptical. That doesn't mean I deny this virus shit, just that I don't blindly trust the experts giving us these numbers.

[Cybercowboy]

Originally Posted by Murray

If you think they are counting people with some of the symptoms, then they are 80-100 million short on their numbers but you are allowed to believe as you wish

I mean, I have literally seen people working in NYC hospitals state this. I'm sure they are just lying to us though.

Please ask me for a link. I have like 50 of them.

Here's just one.

Jump to 2:35 or so and watch.