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Old 09-10-2018, 3:33pm   #21
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They've just bumped the max winds up to 155 mph, making it into the Category 5 range (catastrophic damage), just before landfall. It is also predicted to drop back down again slightly just before landfall, but still... it's just about as big as an Atlantic peak-season hurricane gets.

Scott, it looks like it's headed straight to your family in NC and your rental property. I'd recommend your family make plans to evacuate in the very near future.

As a survivor of Hurricane Ivan in 2004, I lost my home and nearly everything I owned.

This one is even bigger.
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Old 09-10-2018, 3:35pm   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by National Hurricane Center
366
WTNT41 KNHC 102055
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly
intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second
GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices
rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and
dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial
wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,
and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,
and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close
to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind
shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of
eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening
of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to
grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind
threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that
Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,
regardless of its exact intensity.

Florence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11
kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over
the next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Wednesday, a turn toward the
northwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge,
along with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building
over the Great Lakes. There is a new player in the forecast as
well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding
some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United
States. Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has
increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The
official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is
west of the model consensus. It is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about
140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend
well away from the center.

The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra
data for the numerical models.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 25.4N 61.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W 135 KT 155 MPH

48H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Old 09-10-2018, 3:42pm   #23
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Old 09-10-2018, 4:26pm   #24
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My wife just contacted her niece to see if she wanted to evacuate to our place. Niece, husband and daughter just built a house on a waterfront in Charleston SC. Niece says they are staying put. They think it’s going to hit far enough north they are going to be OK.
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Old 09-10-2018, 5:16pm   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Six View Post



Damn, hurricanes lined up like the Rockettes. Hope they don't all make it to shore.
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Old 09-10-2018, 7:15pm   #26
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Pacific had theirs…………...knew it was our turn soon
To early to tell where but the high pressures are driving it
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Old 09-10-2018, 8:32pm   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PortDawg View Post
I think she has...she's still on the fence about if she'd evacuate. We are on relatively high ground. Apparently when the house was built in 1787, they knew where to build.
Parts of Gloucester under evacuation now...
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Old 09-11-2018, 1:22am   #28
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Originally Posted by 99 pewtercoupe View Post
My wife just contacted her niece to see if she wanted to evacuate to our place. Niece, husband and daughter just built a house on a waterfront in Charleston SC. Niece says they are staying put. They think it’s going to hit far enough north they are going to be OK.
They need GTFO SOON!!!!!!
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Old 09-11-2018, 4:20am   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 99 pewtercoupe View Post
My wife just contacted her niece to see if she wanted to evacuate to our place. Niece, husband and daughter just built a house on a waterfront in Charleston SC. Niece says they are staying put. They think it’s going to hit far enough north they are going to be OK.
I lived on the Carolina coast for nearly two decades. That is not a rational thought at this point. There’s no way to know exactly where it will go until it goes there.
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Old 09-11-2018, 6:18am   #30
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Parts of Gloucester under evacuation now...
We're Zone D so....
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:13am   #31
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My daughter lives in Durham NC. I am very worried for her. We have been talking about how to handle this, but I can't be there for her, and that bothers me
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:15am   #32
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My coworker's daughter lives in Wilmington. They're headed there now to get them out. They have a baby and several pets that need to be gotten out of harms way.
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:19am   #33
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I asked her about the possibility of an evacuation order in here area, but haven't heard back yet. This sucks
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:25am   #34
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I asked her about the possibility of an evacuation order in here area, but haven't heard back yet. This sucks
I think that far inland she should be OK so long as she is nowhere near a flood zone. Tell her to have enough food and water for at least two weeks, Get 3-4 20# propane tanks to use to cook with and make sure her home is secure.
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:26am   #35
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My daughter lives in Durham NC. I am very worried for her. We have been talking about how to handle this, but I can't be there for her, and that bothers me
Same here with my daughter in Charlotte. I can only offer advice.
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:26am   #36
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Projected maximum sustained winds for her area are 28MPH. I think it's going to be the rainfall amounts that are the biggest concern there.
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:30am   #37
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I think that far inland she should be OK so long as she is nowhere near a flood zone. Tell her to have enough food and water for at least two weeks, Get 3-4 20# propane tanks to use to cook with and make sure her home is secure.
She lives in an apartment complex that is on a bit of a hill, so she should be ok for flooding, but she could be stuck there with the possibility of losing power. No way to cook with propane, but she has been stocking up on supplies per mom and dads orders! I'll be biting my nails
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:34am   #38
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She lives in an apartment complex that is on a bit of a hill, so she should be ok for flooding, but she could be stuck there with the possibility of losing power. No way to cook with propane, but she has been stocking up on supplies per mom and dads orders! I'll be biting my nails
Does she have a balcony or patio? After Gloria hit me in NY we cooked on the Balcony on a propane grill and then had the propane lanterns for light. We were stuck in the apartment complex for three days due to trees being down and flooding.
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:40am   #39
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Does she have a balcony or patio? After Gloria hit me in NY we cooked on the Balcony on a propane grill and then had the propane lanterns for light. We were stuck in the apartment complex for three days due to trees being down and flooding.
She is now telling me there is no evac orders yet, and she may be staying at here friends place to ride it out. I told her I wasn't happy about her choice because she could get stuck there and all her stuff will be in her apartment. She hadn't thought of that! No balcony at her place either
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Old 09-11-2018, 7:52am   #40
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When Irene hit us a few years ago, we were able to retreat to our 5th wheel RV. These are the days I wish I had it back.
At my house I have my generator, gas grill, and portable air conditioner.
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