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11-06-2012, 8:51am | #1 | |||||||
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~~Washington Dispatch Presidential Election Poll Model: Final Results & Predictions~~
Washington Dispatch 2012 Presidential Election Poll Model: Final Results and Predictions
Quote:
Went to the polls shortly after 6am this morning and cast my vote for Romney. Fingers crossed for the upset.
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11-06-2012, 8:53am | #2 | ||||||
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11-06-2012, 8:57am | #3 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #15
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11-06-2012, 9:28am | #4 | |||||||
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Quote:
I look forward to listening to you on the news in the near future. You have a great future and I hope a very profitable one. |
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11-06-2012, 9:31am | #5 | ||||||
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11-06-2012, 9:34am | #6 | ||||||
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11-06-2012, 9:36am | #7 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #15
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11-06-2012, 9:40am | #8 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #15
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Site is down, back-up location where you can leave comments, like, share, etc.:
Washington Dispatch 2012 Presidential Election Poll Model: Final Results and Predictions | RedState
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11-06-2012, 9:41am | #9 | ||||||
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obama's going down. Not a doubt in my mind.
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11-06-2012, 1:11pm | #10 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #15
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I wish I could say the same.
Still skeered.
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11-06-2012, 1:56pm | #11 | |||||||
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Quote:
Get out and mingle with politicians and people in powerful positions. When you earn their respect then you can earn their money. |
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11-06-2012, 1:57pm | #12 | ||||||
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This. Will, you heard back form the bar exam yet?
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11-07-2012, 8:40am | #13 | ||||||
Barn Stall Owner #15
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I'll eventually do a full write up on the site, but a quick breakdown for the moment for you guys and gals:
The model predicted Romney 48% to Obama 47% Nationally. Romney got about 48%, Obama got about 50%. Undecideds broke heavily to Obama. The model showed a dead heat in Ohio, 48% to 48%. We got a dead heat in Ohio, Obama leads 50% to 48% with 10% left to report. The model showed a dead heat in Colorado, with Romney at 48%. Romney is at 47% with 10% left to report. The model showed Romney at 50% in Florida. He's at 49% with 3% left to report. The model showed Romney at 50% in Virginia. He's at 48%. The model showed a dead heat in Iowa with Romney at 47%. He's at 46% with 4% left to report. Etc., etc., etc. Nationally the model showed Romney at 50% among independents. He won 50% of independents. Everywhere I look, the model was incredibly accurate at predicting Romney's vote total, with true misses in New Hampshire and Nevada. The model was incredibly INaccurate at predicting Obama's vote total. This is because: (a) Independents broke heavily to Obama at the end, and (b) the turnout model based on 2004-2010 used for the primary results was off, and the 2008 only or the 2008-2010 model turned out to be the better one, depending on the state. Why? Turns out team Obama was right. 2008 was not a fluke demographically because of the wave election, and 2010 was merely a better year because of poor minority/democrat turnout. Whites DID shrink even more as a percentage of the electorate, and as a result counteracted increased/decreased Republican/Democrat enthusiasm from 2008. America is changing and Republicans are at a key cross-roads, which I have commented on here: https://www.thevettebarn.com/forums/p...-25-years.html
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