~~~Friday Night National Poll Model Update~~~ Expanded to 9 polls, Romney up 1%

[Will]

So, in anticipation of Monday and Tuesday, when we will get FLOODED with final national polls from ALL the players, I expanded my model from slots for the 7 most recent polls to 9 poll slots, cleaned up the layout, and reduced it to 2 columns instead of 3.

Now, in addition to the main Washington Dispatch Model based on average turnout from 2004-2008, you get 7 other models all together in one little box at the bottom right corner above my official result:

Calculated vote share based on:

1. 2004 party id turnout
2. 2006 party id turnout
3. 2008 party id turnout
4. 2010 party id turnout
5. Gallup party id survey
6. Rasmussen party id survey
7. 2008 & 2010 only average


The first 4 polls in my list have and will remain the same --- the major 3-5 day national trackers that run every single day: Rasmussen, PPP, ABC/WaPo, and IBD/TIPP (IBD/TIPP not updated because of the storm).

The last slot will go to Gallup, who only publishes crosstabs for a 3-week average.

The remaining 3 slots will go to the most recent of the periodic national polls. FOR NOW. For my final editions Monday and Tuesday, when I will inevitably have a lot more than 3 polls from the same dates, I will pick the 3 polls that were most accurate in 2008 provided they release final editions.

That means the FOX News Poll, The NBC/WSJ Poll, and the GWU/Politico Battleground Poll, provided they all release last minute national polls, all of which were pretty accurate in 2008, especially FOX.

CBS/NYT and Pew were bad in 2008, and will get the boot in favor of the above 3 if they all have final polls out.

Anyway, my updated NATIONAL Poll Aggregation as of just now:



Romney up by 1%.

[Taurus]

Appreciate your help during this election season, thanks for sharing your work. It's nice to see some one post their well thought out analysis and opinion and not just post and re-hash some one else's stale articles and accusations.

Well done

[jaxgator]

Originally Posted by Taurus

Appreciate your help during this election season, thanks for sharing your work. It's nice to see some one post their well thought out analysis and opinion and not just post and re-hash some one else's stale articles and accusations.

Well done

Thanks Will!