Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[Will]

GE dropped from the DJIA.

Obamanomics ladies and gentlement. Great job Jeff Immelt.


The decline and fall of General Electric, the poster child of Obamanomics

Timothy P. Carney
January 23, 2018

Sometimes we look back a decade or so and reconsider our word choice. For instance, I used to call General Electric — with its heavy lobbying, its intimate ties to the White House, all its bets on green energy, on embryonic stem cells, on Obamacare, on industrial policy — the “for-profit arm of the Obama administration.”

Those words were ill-chosen. Specifically, in describing GE, it was a mistake to use the word “profit.”

No company has spent as much on U.S. lobbying since 2000 as General Electric. And no component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed worse since 2000 than General Electric.

The company’s stock is tanking. Its profit margins range from sclerotic to negative. Its recent big bets on Europe and green energy are proving to be duds. GE has already sold off its appliance business and is trying to find a buyer for its light bulb business.

That’s not enough, according to some major investors, one of whom has called for a full breakup of GE.

It’s a sad state for a company that has represented industrial strength for more than a century. It’s also a telling epigraph for Obamanomics.

GE CEO Jeff Immelt kicked off the start of former President Barack Obama's administration with a letter prophesying a golden era of American industrial planning, ushered in by the bailouts and a new president who promised a “remaking” of America.

In a letter praising the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Treasury, “and global governments,” plus “stimulus programs being implemented around the world [that] will provide trillions in new investments,” Immelt foresaw that the “global economy, and capitalism, will be 'reset' in several important ways.” Specifically, “In a reset economy, the government will be a regulator; and also an industry policy champion, a financier, and a key partner.”

The letter bragged, “We have gained access to government funding programs that put us on equal footing with banks,” and described GE as “ a natural partner” with federal agencies, “as the role of government increases in the current crisis.” GE is “a particularly desirable partner for governments,” Immelt assured shareholders.

Whenever the Obama administration introduced a major policy initiative, GE was there hopping on board, looking to be the government’s partner.

When Obama created a “Jobs Council,” his jobs czar was Immelt.

When Obama in Spring 2009 announced big money for “Building a new system of high-speed rail in America,” GE hopped on board the train. “We are ready to partner with the federal government and Amtrak to make high-speed rail a reality,” GE declared at an event in May 2009. GE’s top rail lobbyist was Linda Daschle, wife of Obama mentor and former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota.

In July 2009, Obama opened the spigots of federal funding for research on embryonic stem cells. That same week, GE had announced that GE Healthcare and embryonic stem-cell giant Geron "have entered into a global exclusive license and alliance agreement to develop and commercialize cellular assay products derived from human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) for use in drug discovery, development and toxicity screening."

Two months later, Obama announced a concession to Russia: He would scrap U.S. plans to build a missile shield in Eastern Europe. Reuters reported, "Shortly after the pullback on the shield programme was announced, Russia's government said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would meet several U.S. executives on Friday from firms including General Electric.”

Obama had campaigned on outlawing the incandescent light bulb, and he implemented regulations that effectively did that (under a law signed by former President George W. Bush). GE had lobbied for that law, supported Obama’s implementation of it, and expected to profit by forcing consumers to buy high-tech, higher-margin bulbs.

GE lobbied for and was expected to profit from Obama’s green-energy subsidies and regulations, which would enrich the conglomerate's many renewable products, including wind turbines. Obama was a tireless champion of export subsidies, of which GE was a top recipient.

Heck, in 2013, GE actually became officially “Too Big to Fail,” designated by the Financial Stability Oversight Council as TBTF. “Material financial distress at GECC could pose a threat to U.S. financial stability,” FSOC determined.

And yet, here we are. GE opened at $29.37 a share on Election Day, when the Dow was at 18,332.43. On Tuesday Jan. 23, GE closed at $16.30 (down about 45 percent), whereas the Dow closed at 26,210.81, up about 42 percent. The new CEO, John Flannery, has said he’s open to a breakup.

There are countless explanations for GE’s collapse, but here’s one: GE spent a decade chasing the shiniest new winner picked by government, instead of looking for lasting value as dictated by the market. Government can provide billions in stimulus and maybe even some regulatory protection from your competition, but it can’t create wealth or provide lasting value.

For all the hopeful talk of a post-bailout reset of capitalism in favor of the politically connected, it turns out that basic economics trumped Obamanomics after all.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...of-obamanomics

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Will

GE dropped from the DJIA.

Obamanomics ladies and gentlement. Great job Jeff Immelt.


The decline and fall of General Electric, the poster child of Obamanomics

Timothy P. Carney
January 23, 2018



https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...of-obamanomics

So https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Welch Immelt wasn't. It's ironic- a couple of decades ago, I'd pull up GE's chart if I wanted a read of America's economy. Now... not so much.

Jeff's "Wall of Worry" is an apt description of the market right now.

[DAB]

"Government can provide billions in stimulus and maybe even some regulatory protection from your competition, but it can’t create wealth or provide lasting value."

idiots.

[polarbear]

Market chart's got a wedgie. Still spinning sideways.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Market chart's got a wedgie. Still spinning sideways.

Sideways with an upward trend.
Right now, I'll say the trend is your friend and hold.
Thanks for continuing to post the chart.

[Olustee bus]

Originally Posted by polarbear

So Jack Welch Immelt wasn't. It's ironic- a couple of decades ago, I'd pull up GE's chart if I wanted a read of America's economy. Now... not so much.

Jeff's "Wall of Worry" is an apt description of the market right now.

Getrydtgftgrrdrhwfhdegwfgwfsegfgdrgfergerfgegtufgrgdrugrxdrrgwgerggergrrfefghrffxdhvfygddfffygygrrgerfgcfffcfddddfgehwhfgregtggrrfgerrghrfsdgggrgryrirgrhrurgrrggrgeitihgryfffrgstrgdryggy

[Will]

Twitter

[DAB]

Bitcoin anyone?

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...135800283.html

closed at 6,140.36

that's down quite a bit from it's high.

[Will]

It's not too late to sell your butt coins and make a profit on the scam. It will never go back to $20,000 again, take $6,000 and run.

The true believers will be the bag holders.

[DAB]

but, but, but...... they said it would only go UP!

[Will]

Guess who broke his own golden rule and decided to buy individual shares of NVDA and AMZN last Thursday?


<----- THIS GUY. FFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU


(Only 10 shares of NVDA and 1 share of AMZN though so no huge loss, and I'm interested in them for the long haul). I still believe we'll see NVDA $1,000 sometime in the next decade.

[polarbear]

Things that make you go "hmmm."

[Jeff '79]

Following up on that, the S&P dropped through the key technical level on Monday of 2714, BUT, closed above it.
Are we riding the new channel, or will it break down below that to the next support of 2550ish ?........
Friday's close will tell the tale.
The S&P sits at 2723 as we speak.

[Will]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Things that make you go "hmmm."

Not really. "INTEREST RATE HIKES IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE BANKS, BUY UP THOSE FINANCIALS QUICK!!!" was a pretty laughable take being repeated ad nauseum early this year.

Interest rates rising will lead to more loans going into default, lower prices for the assets collateralizing the debt, lower loan volume, and ultimately declining profits for financial institutions.

They SHOULD be tanking.

[Will]

Amazon is buying PillPack.

CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid down 8, 9, and 7% pre-market.

Bezos does it again. What a perfect marriage. Every time I see an ad for PillPack I think "damn, what a great idea." Now that idea can be implemented with Amazon's resources and scale. Frankly the pre-market hit the Drug store chains are taking isn't an overreaction at all IMHO.

[Will]

BTW PillPack has pharmacy licenses for all 50 states. So in one cheap, fell swoop so too will Amazon now.

[Will]

Originally Posted by Vanguard

Coming in August: The largest commission-free ETF lineup offered to investors

Our community of millions of investors think and feel differently about investing. We know it’s all about doing the right thing, giving you the best chance for investment success, and finding ways to lower your investing costs. That’s why, this August, the vast majority of ETFs (nearly 1,800) will be available to you commission-free—the largest lineup offered to investors.

No more compromises to save on/prevent commissions.


Sticking with Vanguard's Total Market and Extended Market Funds. But now I can slice and dice how I want adding other ETFs with no worries about buying in bulk to minimize fees or avoiding all together. Goodbye VXUS, hello iShares and Franklin country specific ETFs. Other than a couple of Chinese stocks like BABA and Tencent, I'm going 100% countries with low debt-GDP for my international exposure. F*** the EU and Japan, I already have exposure to MMT/QE/Debt idiocy via being primarily in US stocks, and we at least boast the world's #1 economy and the world's reserve currency (for now on both counts).

[DAB]

so i shouldn't go all in for bitcoin now?

[Will]

I'm invested in buttcoins. The otherwise stellar management of ARKW regrettably have a fraction of a percent of the fund in buttcoins. 0.31% in GBTC.



https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fun...W_HOLDINGS.pdf

[Jeff '79]

Last week was just nauseating.
I watch the ticker for the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, everyday, every minute.
The S&P HELD 2714, a key technical level at the close on Friday.
Unbelievable if you watched the action all week.
Today, there was a wicked reversal to the positive side !
Not a huge gain for the day, but a massive reversal from the negative.
Investors have been dumping big time and running to safe havens.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/nerv...trade-war.html

The weak are getting shaken out in droves...
It's balls or nothing time right now.
I'm holding.