Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Closing prices and price trending still going in opposite directions. These things have a habit of reconciling themselves.

What exactly does that mean?

Well... The S&P is at 2496 and my 401k is now all in money market as of this morning. Ya, she'll eclipse 2500 but I'm ok with my exit point.
Up 18.02% ytd..... Cha-Ching. The register rings.
Now I nervously wait.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Closing prices and price trending still going in opposite directions. These things have a habit of reconciling themselves.

Are you saying "the trend is still your friend"?

I just am not comprehending that statement.
Help me out here...
No sarcasm here, just don't understand.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Are you saying "the trend is still your friend"?

I just am not comprehending that statement.
Help me out here...
No sarcasm here, just don't understand.

Here- annotated chart. Price is still going up, but price trending (lower orange annotation) is trending downwards, indicating some selling pressure that isn't showing up on the tape. Yet. One of two things will happen- price trending will point upwards again or, more likely, we're staring at a correction. A correction that will happen after the big money's already out.

Horizontal lines are obvious support points on the way down. "Price by Volume" is a stupidly simple indicator. The more buyers and sellers that agree on a certain price level, the stronger the support on the way down (or resistance on the way up). This works extremely well on any individual stock as well. I use a minimum 10 yr. view- better perspective. For short term traders, 5 yr or 1 yr is better- but the longer term still gives a better overview.

[polarbear]

As a side note- look at the beginning of the chart that I posted, and how it fell off of the edge of a cliff after it broke through the bottom price/volume support points. (roughly 1380ish)

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

As a side note- look at the beginning of the chart that I posted, and how it fell off of the edge of a cliff after it broke through the bottom price/volume support points. (roughly 1380ish)

Excellent dissertation.

Thank you for that.

[DAB]

22,200+ today.

[Jeff '79]

2500 Close for the S&P... That's a record.
The fact that there hasn't been a blow off top kinda makes me think it's going higher yet, however it was a titanic struggle to get to 2500 after the big day on Monday. It seems like the big money is selling into strength right now.

[polarbear]

Just keeps chugging along. CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Commitments of Traders - Futures Only still shows neutral sentiment- 435K contracts long, 448K contracts short. Chart's showing some potential caution flags, but nothing that shouts "run screaming for the exits."

[simpleman68]

Been sitting sidelines for a few months but pulled some out for some options on LULU at $48.
Last 2 sales should trigger soon and I'll be back to 80% cash.

Hard to know when the bomb is coming but when you hear the big money families have pulled out of most US assets, it begs caution.

Again, nothing new, just trying to be well positioned for the turd fest.
Scott

[polarbear]

Still overbought- but I wouldn't bet against it either.

[Jeff '79]

Odd that the S&P and NASDAQ didn't participate in yesterday's DOW blow off top.
I bailed 1% ago at S&P 1996.
I'll generally give up , up to 2%, to time a 5-10% correction.
The last three weeks have not been fun for me though, sitting in money market and watching the rise.
As usual, it is nerve racking to see the market rise while my plan unfolds.
Will it??? We shall see.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Odd that the S&P and NASDAQ didn't participate in yesterday's DOW blow off top.
I bailed 1% ago at S&P 1996.
I'll generally give up , up to 2%, to time a 5-10% correction.
The last three weeks have not been fun for me though, sitting in money market and watching the rise.
As usual, it is nerve racking to see the market rise while my plan unfolds.
Will it??? We shall see.

Good question. In my taxable account, I've been letting it ride for... years. And years. Had some major hiccups in the past decade, but overall been a good strategy. It does tell us how much money was either on the sidelines or overseas during the Obama years.

[DAB]

up more today:

[polarbear]

Dang that's an overbought chart. BUT... October is traditionally the worst month in the market. I must've missed that. CME Commitments of Traders is still neutral, with total open interest rising by 100K contracts. Commercials are long 470K contracts vs. short 492K contracts- they aren't too worried. It appears the biggest worry is missing out on the upside.

[Jeff '79]

I got back in on Monday.
I lost out on a solid 2.5% of 401k $$$$
Better safe than sorry.
This market is unstoppable right now.
This is shaping up to be just like the internet boom. The way the market is lunging, then taking a little breather, then lunging again.
Just wow....

[Jeff '79]

If the S&P closes above 2582, it's onward and upward.
If it does not, this will be two weeks in a row that it closed lower, week over week.
One more week of it closing lower than the week started, a trend may be in the works.
Hopefully she closes up strong and the upward trend continues.
It's sitting right at 2582 as I type, down for the day, but up for the week.

[Jeff '79]

Holey moley... This is almost as good as the internet boom.
Today, the Russell 500 , (Small Cap Index), broke out of its trading range, and closed above resistance strongly.
Onward and upward we go !

[polarbear]

That is one overbought chart. On the other hand, the market really traded sideways for almost a decade.

[DAB]

Dow 24077.34 moments ago.

[DAB]

now +350+ for the day, at 24,293+



winning.