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Old 05-06-2011, 9:00am   #1
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Default Crummy News for America --> Unemployment Rate back up to 9%

Ugh.


Unemployment back up to 9%: Employment Situation Summary


I'll update and post my unemployment projection chart in a moment.
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Old 05-06-2011, 9:03am   #2
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BEST-CASE scenario for the Unemployment rate according to my model:


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Old 05-06-2011, 9:08am   #3
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If it does go to 7.8 or so, per your model, in 2012 sep-Nov timeframe that will be enough for obama to use as a plus. people see 7 not 7.8

same thing happened with Reagan in 84 and he was right.
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Old 05-06-2011, 9:14am   #4
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Some background since I started doing this years ago on another forum:


Quote:
Originally Posted by _Will_ View Post
Keep in mind, my calculations are based off of AVERAGES over time. Just as now, in past recessions there have been temporary decreases in the middle of the overall trend of increasing unemployment.

Lets go to the recent recessions we are using to model unemployment this recession.

The 1980 recession. As stated earlier, unemployment increased on average .14% per month from the peak of the recession in 1980 until peak unemployment in 1982.

However within that unemployment growth spurt there were temporary decreases, probably also due to calculation methods, people leaving the workforce, etc.

The same for all 3 recessions. The bold red numbers represent months where we experienced temporary decreases within the broader trend:



Just a refresher, the historical basis of our calculations and mapping:

Quote:
Originally Posted by _Will_
To recap the unemployment calculations I have done:


Unemployment Rate hits 9.4% in May, new projections calculated for future. - Corvette Forum


Quote:
Originally Posted by _Will_
Updated the unemployment projections based on May's numbers and once again, a best case scenario:

Quote:
Originally Posted by _Will_
At the beginning of the year, I examined past unemployment trends coinciding with recessions and made a best-case scenario prediction assuming Q4 was the peak of negative growth:


Unemployment Rate at 8.5% - Corvette Forum

Quote:
Originally Posted by _Will_ View Post
Peak unemployment as of a result of the 2000-2001 recession hit 6.3% in June 2003. It took exactly two years to drop by 1.3% back to 5% unemployment, or .05% per month.

Peak unemployment as a result of the 1990-1991 recession hit 7.8% in June 1992. It took 4 years and 11 months to hit full employment again, again dropping by .05% per month.

Peak unemployment as a result of the 1980-1982 recession hit 10.8% in November 1982. It took 6 years and 4 months to drop to full employment again, dropping by .07% per month.



If
March represented the peak of unemployment and we began the turnaround in employment right now, by November 2012 the unemployment rate would be ~6.3 or 6.4%, exactly what is was at election day 2008.

We would not hit full employment again until ~January 2015.
Quote:
Originally Posted by _Will_ View Post
The problem is this:

Unemployment hit its peak in June 2003, ~2 years after the negative peak of GDP in Q3 2001.

Unemployment hit its peak in June 1992, ~1.5 years after the peak of negative GDP in Q4 1990.

Unemployment hit its peak in November 1982, ~2.5 years after the negative peak of GDP in Q2 1980


My VERY FIRST prediction from April 2009 based on my Model:


Quote:
Originally Posted by _Will_ View Post
The problem is this:

Unemployment hit its peak in June 2003, ~2 years after the negative peak of GDP in Q3 2001.

Unemployment hit its peak in June 1992, ~1.5 years after the peak of negative GDP in Q4 1990.

Unemployment hit its peak in November 1982, ~2.5 years after the negative peak of GDP in Q2 1980


As we can see the length of time is positively correlated to the severity and length of the recession. 1990 was mild, 2000 somewhat mild, 1980 awful.

So even if we assume for this recession, despite its severity, a period of 1.5 years between peak GDP contraction and peak unemployment, and we assume that we hit the negative peak of GDP contraction in q4 last year, the best case scenario would be for unemployment to continue to rise until summer 2010.

From the peak of negative GDP in 1980 until peak unemployment in 1982, unemployment increased on average ~ 0.14% per month.

From the peak of negative GDP in 1990 until peak unemployment in 1992, unemployment increased on average ~ 0.09% per month.

From the peak of negative GDP in 2001 until peak unemployment in 2003, unemployment increased on average ~ 0.08% per month.


So....

If we assume the best case scenario that Q4 last year was the peak of negative GDP, and....

We assume the best case scenario of only 1.5 years until peak unemployment as in the early 1990s, and....

We assume the best case of unemployment growth of .08% per month as in the early 2000s, and....

We assume the best case scenario of unemployment decreases of .07% per month as in the 1980s....



We will hit peak unemployment around April or May 2010, and the peak unemployment rate at that time will be ~ 9.5%.

By November 2012 unemployment will be ~7.5%

We will reach full employment again around Q3 2015.
Corvette Forum - View Single Post - Unemployment Rate at 8.5%


Compare my predictions from APRIL 2009 to the picture at the top of this post.

MUCH better than the administration's predictions over time, although using my BEST CASE SCENARIO model I UNDERESTIMATED peak unemployment.
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Old 05-06-2011, 9:16am   #5
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If it does go to 7.8 or so, per your model, in 2012 sep-Nov timeframe that will be enough for obama to use as a plus. people see 7 not 7.8

same thing happened with Reagan in 84 and he was right.

The September unemployment rate in 1984, the last one voters probably got before election day, was 7.3%

For the entire year, 7.5% was the average.
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Old 05-06-2011, 9:45am   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Will View Post
The September unemployment rate in 1984, the last one voters probably got before election day, was 7.3%

For the entire year, 7.5% was the average.
Many of my clients have no intentions of replacing the positions that were eliminated over the last couple years. Everyone in the IT industry is doing more with less, automating where functions were manual and combining and consolidating resources.

People need to re-think their options and education for future or they will be replace and left behind. Europe, China, India and Japan are way ahead of us in this endeavor. If America doesn't invest in Americans then we'll have no one to blame but ourselves.
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Old 05-06-2011, 10:02am   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TxAg View Post
which is why you see $99.99 and not $100 prices.

People "naturally" round down in those cases.

That said, Reagan didn't have the Internet to help him against the media.
I have heard that people tend to round down on figgers....

and I have never done that, since grade skool, in the price of gas it's only a penny as it's alway put up 399.9 cents/gal.....

but in a store. 7.99 becomes 8 bux to me every time.....I question the reality of your statement.....anyone really believe people are THAT stupid across the board..??

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"Hell, there are no rules here ... we're trying to accomplish something."

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All products should say "Do not use if your stupid".....

I love how Progressives want to have Darwinism taught in schools but denied as a reality in life.
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Old 05-06-2011, 10:25am   #8
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bilmem GOP Before November 2010: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. GOP now: Ban the gays!

Meanwhile ... back to reality ...

Implementing repeal embodies that view of total force readiness — more simply put — it is about respect,” Stanley told the subcommittee. “Respect for change and respect for the men and women of our all-volunteer force to serve this great nation, no matter their race, color, creed, religion or sexual orientation.”
GOP Before November 2010: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. GOP now: Ban the gays! | Queer Landia

and this has what to do with Jobs?


Yea yea yea ... I know; when it comes to the economy ... Obama get's the Credit ... when it comes to the captures of Terrorist, Buch gets the credit.
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Old 05-06-2011, 11:20am   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TxAg View Post
You != general public.

You can question it all you want, but there is research to back it up.

99-cent pricing hooks shoppers
Yeh, I know, I have had some nitwit cashiers actually say 129.99 when I call it 130 bux, per your example/link......

and the silliness marches onward.....

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Old 05-06-2011, 11:23am   #10
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Quote:
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Yeh, I know, I have had some nitwit cashiers actually say 129.99 when I call it 130 bux
Yea... what a bunch of idiots those cashiers must be to tell you the actual price of something without rounding.
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Old 05-06-2011, 11:31am   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrvette View Post
I have heard that people tend to round down on figgers....

and I have never done that, since grade skool, in the price of gas it's only a penny as it's alway put up 399.9 cents/gal.....

but in a store. 7.99 becomes 8 bux to me every time.....I question the reality of your statement.....anyone really believe people are THAT stupid across the board..??

depends on what it is and if there's a spin to it.

Do you actually believe any of the liberals are saying UE is 9%, or are the saying 8%?

people round numbers in according to how it makes them feel. 3.89.9 for fuel to me is 3.89. But if it's 1.39.9 I'll call it 1.40 because it's no big deal.

just my opinion.
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Old 05-06-2011, 12:07pm   #12
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Yea no bias from that site at all. Queer Landia.
It's a Liberal blog. According to Chas that's a credible and factual source of information.
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Old 05-06-2011, 12:10pm   #13
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It's a Liberal blog. According to Chas that's a credible and factual source of information.
Yea ... if it isn't Fox, it can't be news and it can't be true.
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Old 05-06-2011, 5:17pm   #14
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Assertion fail for you.
Cry Baby Boner got those Jobs coming?
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Old 05-06-2011, 5:22pm   #15
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Ever notice whenever I talk about to George Bush or Obama, I call them by their name, even Rush gets the same respect.

Interesting isn't it?
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Cry Baby Boner got those Jobs coming?
I guess this respect you always claim to give doesn't extend to cover the Speaker of the House.

Interesting isn't it?
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Old 05-06-2011, 6:29pm   #16
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My industry is not in the hiring mode either and with house prices still in the tank and 1 in 4 under water we got lots more on the economy to worry about than just jobs.
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Old 05-07-2011, 12:56pm   #17
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I guess this respect you always claim to give doesn't extend to cover the Speaker of the House.

Interesting isn't it?
Yes your are correct.

He ain't The Presudent of The United States.
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Old 05-07-2011, 1:26pm   #18
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Yes your are correct.

He ain't The Presudent of The United States.
You're right. Boehner isn't the President. He is only the 3rd highest ranking elected official in the US so he doesn't deserve any respect.

You make posts complaining that people aren't showing respect to Obama and at the same time think it is ok for you to post the crap that you do? Not too surprising that we can add hypocritical to the list of words used to describe you.
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Old 05-07-2011, 2:12pm   #19
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Quote:
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You're right. Boehner isn't the President. He is only the 3rd highest ranking elected official in the US so he doesn't deserve any respect.

You make posts complaining that people aren't showing respect to Obama and at the same time think it is ok for you to post the crap that you do? Not too surprising that we can add hypocritical to the list of words used to describe you.
I'll give him as much respect as you give the President; how about that? Deal?

Then we'll clearly see exactly who is a Hypocrite.
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Old 05-07-2011, 2:17pm   #20
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I'll give him as much respect as you give the President; how about that? Deal?

Then we'll clearly see exactly who is a Hypocrite.
Do you know the definition of the word hypocrite Chas?
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