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Old 02-09-2017, 10:52pm   #61
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Nice gain today.
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Old 02-09-2017, 11:01pm   #62
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Look at the MACD line crossover. It's a lagging indicator- the way I have this chart set up. But I'm a LT kind of guy.

RUT has a nice strong chart. I personally think everythings getting a little overextended and needs a break at some point.

Lookit the flag on that thing- generally a bullish formation.
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Old 02-27-2017, 10:27pm   #63
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Lookit the flag on that thing- generally a bullish formation.
Well just lookit that.
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Old 02-27-2017, 10:29pm   #64
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Russell 2000 ain't looking shabby either. Bullish flag's still waving.
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:29am   #65
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Had a conversation with my broker the other day. He's normally someone who it very cautious (which I like), and even he was optimistic about the market in the near future. He did say that there are still a lot of unknowns. A lot has been promised, some has been delivered but we still don't know how things will pan out.

We left my investments at a 4 on the risk scale of 1-10 (10 being most risky).

Still...cautiously optimistic.
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Old 02-28-2017, 5:36pm   #66
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Had a conversation with my broker the other day. He's normally someone who it very cautious (which I like), and even he was optimistic about the market in the near future. He did say that there are still a lot of unknowns. A lot has been promised, some has been delivered but we still don't know how things will pan out.

We left my investments at a 4 on the risk scale of 1-10 (10 being most risky).

Still...cautiously optimistic.
4 ???
does that mean?

Mostly in cash?

I must be a 10... I'm all in.
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Old 03-01-2017, 9:03pm   #67
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Commercials still neutral on the S&P futures contracts. 476K contracts long, 482K contracts short. That about reflects the small traders position as well (If you can call a $600K contract "small.")

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report - CME (Futures Only)
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Old 03-01-2017, 9:34pm   #68
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4 ???
does that mean?

Mostly in cash?

I must be a 10... I'm all in.
I don't understand all of it completely. It's a formula that has to do with the way in which I'm invested. A mixture of stocks, bonds, emerging markets, preferreds, etc.

Either way, I had a helluva day.
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Old 03-01-2017, 9:36pm   #69
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If you would like me to quantify it for you, shoot me a PM. We do not have to talk dollar amounts.



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Old 03-02-2017, 10:12pm   #70
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still looks good
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Old 03-22-2017, 10:09pm   #71
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Well just lookit that.
Time to update this. Substituted Bolinger Bands for Price by Volume indicator. Looks like a correction might be in order- indicators don't show anything too serious though. Just eyeballing, I'd be looking at 2200(ish) as a potential target for any correction.

Commitments of Traders show commercial traders increased short positions since the last time we looked at this (530K contracts long, 579K contracts short), but again nothing earth shattering in the moves.
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Old 04-03-2017, 1:55pm   #72
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Man, this market is trying it's best to shake people out for the past week and today.
It's climbing a wall of worry though, continuing to make new highs.
Gidee-up !!
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Old 04-12-2017, 7:01pm   #73
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Ya, that double top looks ominous and a clear sell signal.
I'm standing pat and am just going to suffer through whatever happens.
Time is on my side.
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Old 04-22-2017, 5:52am   #74
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Goin' for a triple top ?
Trump announces his tax reform plan next week.
Personally for me, that is one of my biggest gripes about this country is the crazy tax structure.
I hope that he announces a flat tax for corporations and individuals.
That ain't gonna happen, but the market should peak again next week.
Anyone got anything ?
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Old 04-22-2017, 6:42am   #75
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Goin' for a triple top ?
Trump announces his tax reform plan next week.
Personally for me, that is one of my biggest gripes about this country is the crazy tax structure.
I hope that he announces a flat tax for corporations and individuals.
That ain't gonna happen, but the market should peak again next week.
Anyone got anything ?
I have always felt that Trump and the Reps should push for a one time 2 year reduction on Corporate taxes on money brought home from overseas.

It's estimated they have 2.5 Trillion overseas they can't or won't bring back due to our current tax law. If we could get the tax low enough ( say 5%) to bring back 1 Trillion we would have a massive boost to the economy and a 50 Billion tax revenue bump.

Once that is done getting a more significant ( Flat tax) type of change through would be a much easier proposition for the Reps.
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Old 04-24-2017, 10:03am   #76
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Will the S&P do a triple top, go past, and stay past 2400 ?
Once Trump announces his tax reform this week, it just may, depending on how favorable it will be for corporations, and even the little folk.
Double and triple tops are usually always sell signals in chart speak, but with the specter of corporations adding to the bottom line due to tax breaks, I'm not so sure this time.
That and the May 7th election may just push the market to a new level, as a lot of European questions will be answered.




The triple top and triple bottom are reversal patterns that are formulated when a security attempts to move past a key level of support or resistance in the direction of the prevailing trend.

This chart pattern represents the market's attempt to move a security in a certain direction. After three failed attempts, the buyers (in the case of a top) or sellers (in the case of a bottom) give up, and the opposing group in the market takes a hold of the security, sending it downward (sellers) or upward (buyers).

Triple Top
This bearish reversal pattern is formed when a security that is trending upward tests a similar level of resistance three times without breaking through. Each time the security tests the resistance level, it falls to a similar area of support. After the third fall to the support level, the pattern is complete when the security falls through the support; the price is then expected to move in a downward trend.



Figure 1: Triple top reversal

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The first step in this pattern is the creation of a new high in an uptrend that is stalled by selling pressure, which forms a level of resistance. The selling pressure causes the price to fall until it finds a level of support, as buyers move back into the security. The buying pressure sends the price back up to the area of resistance the security previously met. Again, the sellers enter the market and send the security back down to the support level.

This up-and-down movement is repeated for the third time; but this time the buyers, after failing three times, give up on the security, and the sellers take over. Upon falling through the level of support, the security is expected to trend downward.

This pattern can be difficult to spot in the early stages as it will initially look like a double-top pattern, which was discussed in a previous section. The most important thing here is that one waits for the price to move past the level of resistance before entering the security, as the security could actually just end up being range-bound, where it trades between the two levels for some time.

In the triple-top formation, each test of resistance at the upper end should be marked with declining volume at each successive peak. And again, when the price breaks below the support level, it should be accompanied by high volume.

Once the signal is formed, the price objective is based on the size of the chart pattern or the price distance between the level of resistance and support. This is then deducted from the breakout point.


Read more: Analyzing Chart Patterns: Triple Tops And Bottoms Analyzing Chart Patterns: Triple Tops And Bottoms
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Old 04-24-2017, 10:27pm   #77
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This is why I prefer looking at longer term charts. Here's what I see:

Not a triple top. A pretty nice fifth wave in a classic Elliott 5 wave formation. 1st wave 600-1400. 3rd wave 1100-2200 (Play with Fib numbers on that and you'll grin). If the math plays out, 5th wave could run to 2700 or so.

Couple of things also jump out on this chart. Notice how the crash of '08-'09 was actually just the 3rd wave of a correction that started in 2000? Also of note- corrections are still playing out in 3-wave formations, bull runs in five wavers. Simply meaning the primary long term trend is still up.
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Old 04-25-2017, 6:20am   #78
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Quote:
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Time to update this. Substituted Bolinger Bands for Price by Volume indicator. Looks like a correction might be in order- indicators don't show anything too serious though. Just eyeballing, I'd be looking at 2200(ish) as a potential target for any correction.

Commitments of Traders show commercial traders increased short positions since the last time we looked at this (530K contracts long, 579K contracts short), but again nothing earth shattering in the moves.
So the correction to 2200 ish is off the table now ?
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Old 04-25-2017, 9:45am   #79
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Dow 21,000+ intra-day this morning.
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Old 04-25-2017, 1:47pm   #80
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S&P 2390-2391 Intraday has been hit 3 times now.
The S&P has closed at or above 2385 threes times now, (assuming it closes above that today).

It looks like 2385~ is resistance, but, if it closes above that on Friday, it will then become the new support.

I'm holdin' my cards tight and waiting this thing out.
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