Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by JRD77VET

Non binding opinion requested

In April, I will be at my new job one year and will be moving my 401k to where I work. ( it's currently at my old employer's and earned 15.6% as of last month )

I am assuming i should wait until the market stabilizes and then actually move it to the new 401k agent.

Thoughts?

Since it's a 401, I don't think it matters much. Hard to timne with that variable thrown in.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

I will quote my own post.

If the S&P blows through and closes below 2530, the 200 dma, just 50 points away, it'll be look out below.
There will probably be another relief rally, but the 200 dma will be hit
If it bounces off of it twice, we're out of the woods and buy , buy, buy.
I can't stress enough, how important 2530 is.
Today was brutal.
Everything closed down hard.
Not good. That is if you're in equities.

And 2530.69 was hit and bounced off of . To the number.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

And 2530.69 was hit and bounced off of . To the number.

Nice. Charts getting interesting.

[Jeff '79]

As of this Monday's close, I will be all in again.
I put my money where my mouth is, so we'll see where the cards fall on Monday.
A prediction?
Monday will open, up pretty big, it will then go to the negative, waffling back & forth from positive to negative , hopefully revisiting and bouncing off of 2532, and then end up down less than 200 points.
I feel that 2530 is the new bottom and we'll be range bound to up 100 on the S&P for a while until the interest rate thing drives the market lower by year end.. That's assuming we get 4 hikes this year.

Interesting chart??? That's all you got Polar Bear ???
Can you throw charts up from the internet crash and 1987 for comparison sake ?

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

As of this Monday's close, I will be all in again.
I put my money where my mouth is, so we'll see where the cards fall on Monday.
A prediction?
Monday will open, up pretty big, it will then go to the negative, waffling back & forth from positive to negative , hopefully revisiting and bouncing off of 2532, and then end up down less than 200 points.
I feel that 2530 is the new bottom and we'll be range bound to up 100 on the S&P for a while until the interest rate thing drives the market lower by year end.. That's assuming we get 4 hikes this year.

Interesting chart??? That's all you got Polar Bear ???
Can you throw charts up from the internet crash and 1987 for comparison sake ?

OK, here you go, but with a lot of hesitation. The '87 crash (yes, I was there for it... and in the market) was unique for a number of reasons. The biggest being, it happened without any warning. As in zero... not in the charts, not in the fundamentals. To this day, no one's really sure what caused it. Some have blamed computer driven program trading, but my thinking is that accelerated the crash. The trigger is still an unknown. So while '87 is an object lesson on what could happen, I wouldn't use it as an example of any other occurance.



Now 2008- there was a classic crash. Relentless selling for months on end. Didn't stop until all the players were washed out. And when it was over, it ended with a whimper, not a bang.

[polarbear]

Here's a chart to consider, if you studied Elliott Waves. I could easily eyeball 2200-2400 here before this corrections over. Not overnight, but eventually.

[Millenium Vette]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

As of this Monday's close, I will be all in again.
I put my money where my mouth is, so we'll see where the cards fall on Monday.
A prediction?
Monday will open, up pretty big, it will then go to the negative, waffling back & forth from positive to negative , hopefully revisiting and bouncing off of 2532, and then end up down less than 200 points.
I feel that 2530 is the new bottom and we'll be range bound to up 100 on the S&P for a while until the interest rate thing drives the market lower by year end.. That's assuming we get 4 hikes this year.

Interesting chart??? That's all you got Polar Bear ???
Can you throw charts up from the internet crash and 1987 for comparison sake ?

My gut tells me you are right, but screw putting your money where your mouth is when it comes to this shit. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Millenium Vette

My gut tells me you are right, but screw putting your money where your mouth is when it comes to this shit. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

I could be totally wrong.
I've been doing this since the internet boom/bust and have been wrong twice out of all of the crashes since then, including this one.
When I was wrong, i was relatively close twice, and the other time, off by a lot. (2 months ago when I got out and let 2% go by until I got back in again). That wasn't the one that was by a lot.
This will be a protracted event like the others, so I live by these words.
"No one ever sells at the top, and no one ever buys at the bottom".
That being said, if you are pretty close, you can either save a lot of money, or make a lot of money.
Catching a falling knife is possible. You just need two things.
You just have to have balls of steel and you have to catch it right. It's not for everybody.
Let's all hope that I'm right this time.
After the 30 point drop on Monday Jan 29, I went to money market. On that Monday, the S&P dropped 30 points and the DOW dropped 375 points. I just said to myself, that's it. Capial preservation time, so I bailed. The S&P has since dropped 200 points or 7% from when I bailed. I was hoping for 12%, but the market swings are intraday huge, not closing huge, so I'm taking what I can get. I look at it as not losing 7% since the crash begun, and preserving the 4% in my 401k since Jan 1.
It's a fun hobby.

Date Open High Low Close* S&P Adj Close**
Feb 09, 2018 2,601.78 2,638.67 2,532.69
Feb 08, 2018 2,685.01 2,685.27 2,580.56
Feb 07, 2018 2,690.95 2,727.67 2,681.33
Feb 06, 2018 2,614.78 2,701.04 2,593.07
Feb 05, 2018 2,741.06 2,763.39 2,638.17
Feb 02, 2018 2,808.92 2,808.92 2,759.97
Feb 01, 2018 2,816.45 2,835.96 2,812.70
Jan 31, 2018 2,832.41 2,839.26 2,813.04
Jan 30, 2018 2,832.74 2,837.75 2,818.27
Jan 29, 2018 2,867.23 2,870.62 2,851.48

[Jeff '79]

Well if that was the bottom, I saved myself 162 points on the S&P or 6%.
I'm back in as of this morning.
Damn... I missed by one day. I sure wish that I would have got back in on Monday morning and got that 37 points that I missed out on yesterday.
Oh well...
Like I said...
No one buys at the bottom and no one sells at the top.

Go up now mofo !!!

[polarbear]

We shall see. Chart should self-update.

[Jeff '79]

Oh yaaaa..... I'm loving this market right now.
What a fire sale !!
Remember kids...
When there's blood in the streets, buy with bth hands.
Ya, it's counter intuitive, but it ALWAYS works.
Look at the VIX right now.
Albeit still high, it is down 22%.
The ship is righting itself.
The 4 interest rate hikes are priced into the market and it is time for irrational exuberance again.

[Jeff '79]

[Millenium Vette]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Indeed

[simpleman68]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Oh yaaaa..... I'm loving this market right now.
What a fire sale !!
Remember kids...
When there's blood in the streets, buy with bth hands.
Ya, it's counter intuitive, but it ALWAYS works.
Look at the VIX right now.
Albeit still high, it is down 22%.
The ship is righting itself.
The 4 interest rate hikes are priced into the market and it is time for irrational exuberance again.

That's been what we do as well but we're getting pretty concerned about when the big one is coming. We're certainly due for more than just a correction.
ANALysts talking about a stock being a good buy when its P/E is 20 or even 30.

Almost sold a bunch on that first big dip day last week but held off.
Still, I'm back to about half cash and hedging best I can along the way.
Not getting caught out there like '08.
We held on until it came back but it was a long and worrisome few years.
Scott

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by simpleman68

That's been what we do as well but we're getting pretty concerned about when the big one is coming. We're certainly due for more than just a correction.
ANALaysts talking about a stock being a good buy when its P/E is 20 or even 30.

Almost sold a bunch on that first big dip day last week but held off.
Still, I'm back to about half cash and hedging best I can along the way.
Not getting caught out there like '08.
We held on until it came back but it was a long and worrisome few years.
Scott

I'll warn everyone when it's time to bail.

[Millenium Vette]

Originally Posted by simpleman68

That's been what we do as well but we're getting pretty concerned about when the big one is coming. We're certainly due for more than just a correction.
ANALysts talking about a stock being a good buy when its P/E is 20 or even 30.

Almost sold a bunch on that first big dip day last week but held off.
Still, I'm back to about half cash and hedging best I can along the way.
Not getting caught out there like '08.
We held on until it came back but it was a long and worrisome few years.
Scott

Yeah, '08 wasn't fun. I had a feeling it was coming and sold some shit off four or so months ahead of it, but kept most of it invested because paying capital gains tax isn't fun. I didn't panic because I knew it would come back. Eventually....

If it isn't in an IRA or other tax-sheltered deal, it's a bitch deciding to sell and pay the taxes.

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

I'll warn everyone when it's time to bail.

It isn't that easy to bail if there are tax consequences.

Having said that: Damn, Jeff, what a magnificent job on calling it!!!!!

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

We shall see. Chart should self-update.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

I see a flag waving there. Gonna break up or down?

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

I see a flag waving there. Gonna break up or down?

Draw the line....
Up imo

It'll go sideways to up until they decide to sell off when they feel interest rates are scary enough. That'll prolly be around October.
It's already going sideways but there will be an upward bias, or for lack of a better word, trend, until such time..
What say you?

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

We shall see. Chart should self-update.

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Draw the line....
Up imo

It'll go sideways to up until they decide to sell off when they feel interest rates are scary enough. That'll prolly be around October.
It's already going sideways but there will be an upward bias, or for lack of a better word, trend, until such time..
What say you?

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