Can You Spot the Flaw?

[Aerovette]

Math or no math, the message is this lockdown/closing of the country is bullshit and needs to stop...and I agree 100%.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by Steve_R

The point now is more government control while people are afraid to speak up or resist, which hasn't happened in this country in too many years to count. It's an opportunity many in government can't let pass.

Yeah, I get that, and you get that, and even the one we call "Meathead" has that one figure out. It was more or less a rhetorical question.

[FLEXjs]

Originally Posted by Mick

OK, I get that 2+ months ago, we didn't know as much as we know now, so the whole "flatten the curve" thing had at least some basis to it. But now we know it is no more deadly than seasonal flu, the surge that was predicted to come and overwhelm the healthcare system never happened, and cases and deaths are on the wane, so, why are we still doing this bullshit? Yes, it is more contagious than the regular seasonal flus, but also a much higher percentage of those infected don't get sick, so, what is the point?

We went from "flatten the curve" to indefinite lockdown pretty fukken quick.

Society has been totally taken over by the SJWs and anyone that disagrees with them is shamed.

The mass deaths and floods patients overwhelming hospitals never happened. Maybe it was because of the lockdown maybe it wasn't. But either way time to get back to normal. We can't live like this forever. But seems that's what a lot of people want, and so does the government.

They use times like these to pass sweeping laws usurping our freedom and those laws are almost never reversed when the crisis ends.

Remember the Patriot Act passed after 9/11? Was it ever repealed? NOPE.

Income tax was created in Canada to help with the WW1 effort. The war ended. The taxes did not.

[Strats-N-Vettes]

Originally Posted by FLEXjs

Society has been totally taken over by the SJWs and anyone that disagrees with them is shamed.

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by Mick

Isn't that more or less the methodology used to calculate the mortality of the seasonal flu? The CDC makes some wild assed guess at how many people in total were infected, and then divides the number of known deaths by it. The main difference I see here is that they are knowingly and willfully including the deaths of people who clearly didn't die of COVID-19 in the numerator, thereby inflating the mortality rate.

Except that's not what this doctor is doing - his methodology is resulting in a dramatically lower mortality rate than has ever been reported by any other estimate. I figured a bunch of you guys would be behind this as it fits with your "this is all overblown" narrative.

[Steve_R]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

Except that's not what this doctor is doing - his methodology is resulting in a dramatically lower mortality rate than has ever been reported by any other estimate. I figured a bunch of you guys would be behind this as it fits with your "this is all overblown" narrative.

More and more people are questioning what's going on and stating that the response was overblown. You've not yet stated your position; what do you think?

[Aerovette]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

Except that's not what this doctor is doing - his methodology is resulting in a dramatically lower mortality rate than has ever been reported by any other estimate. I figured a bunch of you guys would be behind this as it fits with your "this is all overblown" narrative.

Because he isn't estimating.

[FLEXjs]

Yukon Territory declared a state of emergency on March 27th with only 4 reported cases and no deaths.

Total confirmed cases to date: 11

Deaths: NONE

But yeah; State of Emergency seems totally appropriate

[Aerovette]

Houston news this morning called this the most damaging pandemic ever. WRONG.

It is the most damaging REACTION to a pandemic ever.

Russia - FAIL
Impeach - FAIL
Nuke the economy - RESULTS PENDING

We are merely chess pieces in the Dems efforts to take down America and rebuild it THEIR way.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

His basic methodology is to take the number of confirmed cases in an area, extrapolate that number to the total population of that area, and then use the current number of deaths to calculate a mortality rate.

Originally Posted by Mick

Isn't that more or less the methodology used to calculate the mortality of the seasonal flu? The CDC makes some wild assed guess at how many people in total were infected, and then divides the number of known deaths by it.

Originally Posted by dvarapala

Except that's not what this doctor is doing - his methodology is resulting in a dramatically lower mortality rate than has ever been reported by any other estimate. I figured a bunch of you guys would be behind this as it fits with your "this is all overblown" narrative.

How are the methodologies laid out in the first two posts above different? Like I said, the only difference I can see is that there are deaths counted as COVID-19 deaths when the person knowingly didn't die from COVID-19. It's pretty likely there are at least some seasonal flu deaths counted when the person didn't actually die from the flu, but at least there isn't a systematic demand that they be counted that way.

But lets pretend that we didn't have a study in CA AND a study in FLA in the last couple of weeks that both estimated mortality in the 0.1% to 0.2%, because to recognize that would take a big chunk out of the "sky is falling" crowd's narrative. OK?

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by aerovette

Because he isn't estimating.

He's not?

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by Steve_R

More and more people are questioning what's going on and stating that the response was overblown. You've not yet stated your position; what do you think?

I already know what I think. I started this thread to find out what others think.

[FLEXjs]

Current stats for the entire Province of Ontario, population 15 million.

Deaths: 892

Of those, 671 (more than 75%) were residents in long-term care facilities.

New cases have slowed to a trickle.

Lockdown: Extended until the end of May

Seems legit.

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by Mick

How are the methodologies laid out in the first two posts above different?

Well if even one of you had an attention span greater than a gnat, you would at least watch enough of the video to see him work through his first example and then you'd have the answer to that question.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

Well if even one of you had an attention span greater than a gnat, you would at least watch enough of the video to see him work through his first example and then you'd have the answer to that question.

Wait, I thought I had one more **** around here someplace, but I just can't seem to find it now . . .

[Aerovette]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

He's not?

I suppose extrapolating is a form of estimating, but it is at least based on something other than spinning the Wheel of Deathcount and waiting to see what number hits. "California it's your spin.....and you landed on 2.5 million !"

They are discussing real cases and conversations with other doctors and other hospitals. This is not about whether he remembered to carry the one in his calculations. It is that this entire event was over-reacted to...(which I can even forgive when zero is known) and has YET to be dialed back.

Flatten the curve or we all die. We flattened a curve that barely existed and we are STILL being treated as if a Nuke went off in each state.

This is about control. Its stopped being about safety long ago.

[Aerovette]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

Well if even one of you had an attention span greater than a gnat, you would at least watch enough of the video to see him work through his first example and then you'd have the answer to that question.

I've watched it three times. Zero fks given about the C-hair details. The message is intact and valid.

[FLEXjs]

Originally Posted by aerovette

This is about control. Its stopped being about safety long ago.

[Steve_R]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

I already know what I think. I started this thread to find out what others think.

So you won't tell us what you think. Gotcha.

[ThePirate]

Just remember when God flooded the world and let Noah and family float away? Where were the worriers then?