2013 Omega Man Memorial Fantasy Football Challenge of Manliness

[NeedSpeed]

Originally Posted by Will

Just like the Ravens were basically done once Manning caught fire and eventually threw 7 TDs.

Yes, when an NFL QB has a once-in-half-a-century performance, his Vette Barn fantasy owner's chance of success skyrockets. The last time a QB threw 7 TDs was 1969.

We've never seen anything like it. 100 points out of one player.

WOW.

It's not over yet though. Just looking at last year's results, we had 2 games lost in which the loser scored > 140 points. 7 games > 130.

Just looking at my schedule last year, I beat Entropy twice in the regular season, once he scored 59 points, the other time only 47 points (Entropy went on to win it all last year BTW)

So it's entirely possible for the rest of Jeff's team to have a bad day and score only 30-40 more points. And it's even more possible for JoeBuck to have a 150 point week. We've had plenty of those.

But if the rest of Jeff's roster does meet their week 1 projections, he'll score in the 170s. Happened twice last year, neither of us who did it won the title.

I'd say it's unusual, he only tied an NFL record

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by NeedSpeed

I'd say it's unusual, he only tied an NFL record

I'd say so too.
That was just a total oddity which you won't see again for another 45 years....
I'm just glad that I knew that it would happen before I picked him.....

[Hoog]

Originally Posted by Will

Just like the Ravens were basically done once Manning caught fire and eventually threw 7 TDs.

Yes, when an NFL QB has a once-in-half-a-century performance, his Vette Barn fantasy owner's chance of success skyrockets. The last time a QB threw 7 TDs was 1969.

We've never seen anything like it. 100 points out of one player.

WOW.

It's not over yet though. Just looking at last year's results, we had 2 games lost in which the loser scored > 140 points. 7 games > 130.

Just looking at my schedule last year, I beat Entropy twice in the regular season, once he scored 59 points, the other time only 47 points (Entropy went on to win it all last year BTW)

So it's entirely possible for the rest of Jeff's team to have a bad day and score only 30-40 more points. And it's even more possible for JoeBuck to have a 150 point week. We've had plenty of those.

But if the rest of Jeff's roster does meet their week 1 projections, he'll score in the 170s. Happened twice last year, neither of us who did it won the title.

Originally Posted by Will

In 2011 the team with the top scoring QB finished in 2nd place.

The team with the 2nd best QB finished in 6th place.

In 2012 the team with the top scoring QB finished in 4th place.

The team with the 2nd best QB finished in 1st place.

So looking at just the best QB, or just the 2nd best QB, or both combined, drafting them = an average finish of 3rd place. This is with 6 teams both years.

We fortunately have a much better number this year, 10 teams. If this changes things and we see a correlation between teams' primary QB points and where the teams finish, then we can certainly gimp the QBs some in the future to maintain the competitive balance we have enjoyed the past 2 years.

I don't foresee such a correlation. In fact, the standard scoring system which places a premium on the RB position is much more guilty of that IMO. The Top Rusher in the NFL last year (Adrian Peterson) ran for 178% of the yards the 10th best rusher did. For QBs and passing yards from 1st to 10th, that drops to 128%.

For 2nd - 10th the numbers move to 133% - 123%.

For 3rd - 10th the numbers move to 131% - 122%

So the difference between the 10th best QB and the Best, 2nd, and 3rd best QB is SMALLER than the same gaps for the RBs.

So not only is our scoring more realistic since (a) in real life a yard is a yard and a TD is 6 points no matter how they are gained, and (b) in real life QBs ARE this important; but our system is also more conducive to parity since the gap between the best QBs and the above average QBs is SMALLER than the gap between the best RB and the above average RBs.

If we ever had a huge league with 20 teams or more, THEN emphasis on QB could pose a big problem, because the NFL bottom feeders are BAD.

First, gaining a yard in "real life" means exactly nothing. They are only given value in a fantasy league.

Of course having Manning last night should give an owner a distinct advantage for the week, but not an insurmountable one. A standout performance is always going to rewarded regardless of the scoring system. Traditional scoring systems do NOT favor the avg RB. The problem you've "fixed" isn't measured in the variance within a given position.

QB throws for 150, scrambles for 10, gets 2 dink TDs = 28 pts
RB runs for 120, catches for 40 with 2 TDs = 28 pts

Who really had the better day? Equal value to their teams? No, not hardly. Here's another scenario...

RB runs for 180 yards and 3 TDs, but has a fumble in there some where = 35 pts

Dominant performance, a career day for some. But....

The average starting fantasy QB in a 10 team league throws for 290 with 2 TDs and a pick for 39 pts under your system.

Whose performance was really more valuable?

[Hoog]

Here

This is last years points by position based on a common point system (4 pt pass TD and 1 per 20 pass yds)

Adrian Peterson had a career year, 2300 total yds and 13 TDs. His 309 points ranks him 14th overall...behind 13 quarterbacks. He was 129 points behind Drew Brees. Under your system that gap grows to 466 points

In 2011 Brees led Ray Rice by 176 pts, under your system...524 or ~33 points per game.

Again...it is what it is, but please stop trying to blow smoke up my ass with this "QBs are that valuable" bullshit. They are not.

[Jeff '79]

How do I sit a starter and put a standy guy in? I can't figure it out.

[Jeff '79]

Damn Joe ! What a slugfest we have going on here!

[Will]

Originally Posted by Hoog

"QBs are that valuable" bullshit. They are not.

Those who KNOW NFL football would strongly disagree. So would every single GM in the league who would instantly trade TWO Adrian Petersons for ONE Tom Brady without hesitation.

Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees have recent SB rings. Adrian Peterson has squat. Top QB = success. Top RB = DOESN'T MATTER, you still need a top QB to have success.

It is a passing league. It's all about throwing the ball and rushing the passer. The two best teams in the NFC just played a game where they scored a combined 62 points and neither team ran for very much. How could they score so many points despite no running success? It's a QB-driven league, that's how.

If you have Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning or Drew Brees or Tom Brady on your team in real life, you have a shot at winning the championship no matter who runs the ball. If you have Adrian Peterson on your team, well, you have NO shot at winning the title without a Manning or Brees or Brady.

The Ravens won it all last year because Flacco got HOT in the playoffs. He threw for over 1100 yards, 11 TDs and NO interceptions. LITERALLY and all time great performance, 11 TDs and NO picks has now been done twice - by Flacco and Joe Montana. Ray Rice was just good. Slightly over 300 yards in 4 games, 76 yards per game average. QBs drive the modern game, QBs ARE in fact ALL-IMPORTANT. RB doesn't matter. The best team of the last decade won 3 superbowls and played in 5 playing bums, scrubs, and washed-up has-beens at RB. The Giants won 2 superbowls with medicore RBs. The Ravens won last year with a usually great RB who happened to have a mediocre playoff run.

I don't know who the team of this decade will be, but I DO know it won't be the freaking Vikings even if AP runs for 2,500 yards this year and the next 5 after it. Why? Their QB stinks and only threw for about 3,000 yards and 18 TDs last year, and won't be much better than that anytime soon.

Adrian Peterson had a career year, 2300 total yds and 13 TDs. His 309 points ranks him 14th overall...behind 13 quarterbacks. He was 129 points behind Drew Brees. Under your system that gap grows to 466 points

So in other words the standard system says that a player like Drew Brees was 1.4x as valuable as Peterson. Our system said he was 2.5x as valuable. Sounds about right, or arguable still too low. You trade 2.5 Adrian Petersons for one Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Peyton Manning on your team EVERY SINGLE TIME.

I like watching AP and hope he breaks that ass-hole Dickerson's record this year. BTW even if he does he'll be sitting at home in January, the Vikes won't fall ass-backwards into the playoffs again this year even if AP runs for 3,000.

[Will]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Damn Joe ! What a slugfest we have going on here!

Good game. Joe's gonna fall a bit short, but with a good game from Arian Foster tomorrow night (and the play the sorry Chargers) Joe could get into the 170s easily.

NeedSpeed and I will win the award for yawner of the week once the final points are tallied Monday night. Very low-scoring. I got 11 points total out of my WRs and NEGATIVE points out of my defense. No clue why I didn't bench SF for game one, I should have known better against Green Bay. 28 points is a great defensive game against them, but no so great for Fantasy.

Darren Sproles and Drew Brees bailed me out with a great game vs. Atlanta. HUGE statement comeback game for New Orleans. I jumped out of my chair when their defense held at the end.

NFC will be much more entertaining with the Saints having their mojo back. Atlanta is soft and a pretender, and I still consider them to be playoff chokers since they fell ass-backwards into FINALLY winning ONE playoff game last year. They completely melted down in the 4th quarter and then had one heck of a lucky 30-40 seconds against our good old infuriatingly stupid friend, the "PREVENT" defense.

[Jeff '79]

Every leagues' scoring is different.
If QB's are weighted heavier, then you simply adjust your picking toward an early QB pick. It's as simple as that.
Like Hoog said, it is what it is. Another league where QB's aren't weighted as heavily is what it is too.
You have to adapt to the rules given to you.
If Peyton Manning didn't have a record day, Joe would be breathing down my neck right now. He may very well still do that, with Arian Foster still to go on Monday night.
Personally, I think Will is right to weigh QB's heavier. They really are the most important player on the field, and a team's fortune will go as their QB goes...

[Will]

BTW you should all be more like Hoog and start fights with each other no matter what they are based on. I'm already anticipating our Nerd-Slap-Fight grudge match next weekend.

YOU ARE GOING DOWN HOOG. I WILL DRINK YOUR SALTY RB LOVING TEARS. RBS ARE THE DIRT BENEATH A QBS SHOES. WEEK 1 WAS A FLUKE. IN WEEK 2 MY TEAM WILL RAIN FIRE THROUGH THE AIR.

[Will]

Also someone please trade me a WR. SOMEONE needs a good RB. I've got what you need baby. David Wilson. He's got FOUR GAMES against Cowboys and Eagles run defenses. How can you resist? Just do it.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Will

BTW you should all be more like Hoog and start fights with each other no matter what they are based on. I'm already anticipating our Nerd-Slap-Fight grudge match next weekend.

YOU ARE GOING DOWN HOOG. I WILL DRINK YOUR SALTY RB LOVING TEARS. RBS ARE THE DIRT BENEATH A QBS SHOES. WEEK 1 WAS A FLUKE. IN WEEK 2 MY TEAM WILL RAIN FIRE THROUGH THE AIR.

Hey ... Quit bogarting that thing and pass it this way...
You da funny!

[kylebuck]

Someone pass me some preparation h ....I was raped this weekend

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by joebuck

Someone pass me some preparation h ....I was raped this weekend

It was good for me.....

[Jeff '79]

Ted and Dave have a good one going tonight. Jason Witten vs. the Giants kicker ftw.

[Hoog]

Originally Posted by Will

Those who KNOW NFL football would strongly disagree.

Yeah, damn near every league set-up across the nation is wrong, but somehow you have it figured out. Bullshit, and fuck you on the implication that I don't "know" football. Seriously, fuck you. Here is what I know...

Yesterday, Adrian Peterson (111 total and 3 TDs) and AJ Green (162 and 2 TDs) got outscored in your system by all but three of the drafted QBs (so far). You have to be a compete idiot to beleive that below average day for a QB is still worth more than the best performance of the week at RB.

Originally Posted by Jeff '19

You have to adapt to the rules given to you.

Yep, that's why I took a QB and Def earlier than I normally would.

[Hoog]

Originally Posted by Will

I don't know who the team of this decade will be, but I DO know it won't be the freaking Vikings even if AP runs for 2,500 yards this year and the next 5 after it. Why? Their QB stinks and only threw for about 3,000 yards and 18 TDs last year, and won't be much better than that anytime soon.

Last year Ponder, who by your admission "stinks" outscored AP by 92 points in your system. So a QB that "stinks'...22 overall last year and probably not even worth a 3rd string spot in your 6 team league...is still 30% more valuable than the best RB performance in years. By your reasoning, every GM in the league would trade for Ponder as an improvement over Peterson. Tebow would have a job if your system even remotely mimiced real life. Sorry Will, but that shows just how much you know about football. Your system does not reflect the value of the QB position. You've made the position of QB absurdly valuable because of your man-love with a few blue-chippers.

I understand quite well the problem of balance when establishing a FFL scoring system and rules. I was commish for 20 years over a league that I started in the early 90's...before there were even any online scoring services. I helped create several long running leagues here locally. The kind of leagues where experienced team owners come back every year. Money leagues, where scoring systems like yours get tried and summarily throw out the next year.

...and don't get me started on your defensive scoring...

[Will]

Originally Posted by Hoog

You've made the position of QB absurdly valuable

Of course I made the position valuable, and it's not absurd.

Remove Adrian Peterson from the line-up, line up with an empty backfield behind Ponder every single play, and the Vikings still have the ability to win some games this year.

Remove Christian Ponder from the line-up, direct-snap to Adrian Peterson every single play, and the Vikings go 0-16 this year.

The position of QB is infinitely more valuable. As crappy as Ponder is, the Vikings NEED him to function. They don't NEED AP to function. They'd suck worse without him, but they could function, and score points, and win a few games. Teams can function without a running game. Albeit usually very poorly. Teams simply CANNOT function without a passing game. The entire game now revolves around the QB position.

Take the team with the biggest Good RB - Bad QB disparity in the league, whether you think it's the Vikings or someone else, and the QB is STILL more vital to the offense.

Originally Posted by Hoog

....fuck you on the implication that I don't "know" football. Seriously, fuck you....

Heads up guys - I retract my earlier advice. Do NOT be like Hoog.

[Entropy]

Apparently Fantasy Football is serious ****in' business.

[bsmith]

Originally Posted by Entropy

Apparently Fantasy Football is serious ****in' business.

A league that I have been running for 10 years had a rift and some bailed and started their own league.

I refer to it as the Special Olympics League.