Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[Jeff '79]

It's shaping up to be another great week.

[polarbear]

You always wonder. In the WSJ today, there was an article that stated investors were the most bearish since the '08 crash. But the CFTC Commitments of Traders report says the commercials are just about even long/short. 606,000 positions long, 626,000 positions short. At over $500K a contract (do the math), that's one helluva lot of money parked as a neutral bet in the Futures market. To put this into perspective, short outnumbered long by about 2:1 back in '07, and in '99 the Commercials set a record for short positions on the Merc- and kept them for almost 6 months. Moral of the story- don't believe a Financial Writer blindly- do the research yourself.

*I personally agree the market's overvalued, but it pretty obvious a lot of cash is repatriating.

[polarbear]

Welp, we've been talking for a few months about how overbought that chart looked. Seems we're getting a bit of a correction.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Welp, we've been talking for a few months about how overbought that chart looked. Seems we're getting a bit of a correction.

I hope so.
As of this morning I went to cash in my 401k, believe it or not.
Just spooked... No technical or due diligence involved.
Just spooked.
I was going to do it over the weekend, but I didn't.
I'm hoping for a 10% drop.
We shall see, as we are in uncharted territory.

[MrPeabody]

I don't have a dog in this fight, and don't follow it as closely as you guys, but is it time to bail?

https://www.google.com/search?source....0.Dma1W-8FbyY

[Rob]

Originally Posted by MrPeabody

I don't have a dog in this fight, and don't follow it as closely as you guys, but is it time to bail?

https://www.google.com/search?source....0.Dma1W-8FbyY

To me, no. It is an opportunity to pick up a few more things on Monday while they are on sale

[MrPeabody]

Originally Posted by Dixievet

To me, no. It is an opportunity to pick up a few more things on Monday while they are on sale

How far would it have to drop on Monday for you to bail? I like to see how people younger than me see it. You have more years left to ride out a downturn.

[Jeff '79]

I'll get back in when the S&P hits 2575.
That is about 9% from the top.
Wow, I sure nailed it.
More often than not, I do.

I did miss the last call and lost 2%, but got back in after the writing was on the wall.
I just saved 2.5 percent today... Bringing me to up 3.87% for the year in the 401k.
Ya, it'll stay close to that or up slightly, but man, I feel really comfortable right now.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

I'll get back in when the S&P hits 2575.
That is about 9% from the top.
Wow, I sure nailed it.
More often than not, I do.

I did miss the last call and lost 2%, but got back in after the writing was on the wall.
I just saved 2.5 percent today... Bringing me to up 3.87% for the year in the 401k.
Ya, it'll stay close to that or up slightly, but man, I feel really comfortable right now.

Don't get confused about todays selloff. Press sez it's over interest rate worries. I say it's about this. When the Fed b*tch slaps the 2nd largest bank the way it did today, that's a BIG deal. Imagine- Fed tells Worst Fargo

1. Can't increase their asset size. Translated, no more mergers or acquisitions until further notice.

2. Four board members have to GTFO. That's unprecedented. Not unwarranted, just unprecedented.

The REAL message is there's no such thing anymore as "Too big to fail." WF has 1.7 Trillion (that's correct). Now there's a message that'll send shock waves down Wall St.

[polarbear]

And a nice chart.

[carlton_fritz]

I have a handful of cheap stocks and they all tanked this week. Glad I got some of the stocks free.

[Jeff '79]

This article is interesting.
As I was readying to bail, record inflows into equities occurred last Friday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-...090209888.html

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Don't get confused about todays selloff. Press sez it's over interest rate worries. I say it's about this. When the Fed b*tch slaps the 2nd largest bank the way it did today, that's a BIG deal. Imagine- Fed tells Worst Fargo

1. Can't increase their asset size. Translated, no more mergers or acquisitions until further notice.

2. Four board members have to GTFO. That's unprecedented. Not unwarranted, just unprecedented.

The REAL message is there's no such thing anymore as "Too big to fail." WF has 1.7 Trillion (that's correct). Now there's a message that'll send shock waves down Wall St.

The 50 day moving average for the S&P is 2507. fixed
Will she bounce off of that? That would be a 13% correction and a 365 point drop from the high.
It is down 110 points so far.

A purely technical comment there.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

The 50 day moving average for the S&P is 1507.
Will she bounce off of that? That would be a 13% correction and a 365 point drop from the high.
It is down 110 points so far.

A purely technical comment there.

You mean 2507, right? I'm a believer in technical points because futures traders watch them and react off of them. In a way, they become self-fulfilling prophecies.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

You mean 2507, right? I'm a believer in technical points because futures traders watch them and react off of them. In a way, they become self-fulfilling prophecies.

I'm sorry ! 2507....

[Jeff '79]

Let me correct myself on the S&P #'s.
The 50 DMA is 2716 - 6% below the high
The 200 DMA is 2532 - 12% below the high.

Personally, I feel support is the 200 DMA where, intraday, it might breach, but on a close, it will hold that line.

The S&P is 4% down from it's top right now.
If it drops and holds under 2716, ( below the 50 DMA), look out below, and hoard your cash for the 200 DMA of 2532 and then go all in.

That's my plan.
It would be great to already have 4% in the bank, save 10%-12%, and continue to make it after the correction.
Market timing is not for the weak of heart though.
How fast will this happen? We shall see.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Let me correct myself on the S&P #'s.
The 50 DMA is 2716 - 6% below the high
The 200 DMA is 2532 - 12% below the high.

Personally, I feel support is the 200 DMA where, intraday, it might breach, but on a close, it will hold that line.

The S&P is 4% down from it's top right now.
If it drops and holds under 2716, ( below the 50 DMA), look out below, and hoard your cash for the 200 DMA of 2532 and then go all in.

That's my plan.
It would be great to already have 4% in the bank, save 10%-12%, and continue to make it after the correction.
Market timing is not for the weak of heart though.
How fast will this happen? We shall see.

There ya go.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

There ya go.

Ya my original post was a quick thumbnail sketch and I mistyped the 1507 and really meant 2507..
I actually sat down and did the real math this morning and was careful of my typing.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Ya my original post was a quick thumbnail sketch and I mistyped the 1507 and really meant 2507..
I actually sat down and did the real math this morning and was careful of my typing.

This chart should self-update.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

This chart should self-update.

Can't you post one with the 50 & 200 drawn in ?