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Old 12-04-2018, 1:49pm   #501
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The Mrs. asked me over dinner last night how the markets were.

Told her is was a decent up day on the back of some Grade-A "Fake News" i.e. China trade "truce," then told her about the boring non-newsworthy reality of home sales, auto sales, yield-curve inversion, etc. and that it was a suckers' rally.

Should have listened to myself and moved even more to cash than I already have.

The bear is here and it's looking more and more like Trump is going to be the sad sack left holding the QE-Infinity hot-potato once it explodes.

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Old 12-04-2018, 2:11pm   #502
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The Mrs. asked me over dinner last night how the markets were.

Told her is was a decent up day on the back of some Grade-A "Fake News" i.e. China trade "truce," then told her about the boring non-newsworthy reality of home sales, auto sales, yield-curve inversion, etc. and that it was a suckers' rally.

Should have listened to myself and moved even more to cash than I already have.

The bear is here and it's looking more and more like Trump is going to be the sad sack left holding the QE-Infinity hot-potato once it explodes.

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/...27211909017601
Once you start putting your.money where your mouth is and letting us know prior to the event, your cred will rise.
Until then,just keep telling us what is going to happen after it happens.
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Old 12-04-2018, 2:21pm   #503
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Once you start putting your.money where your mouth is and letting us know prior to the event, your cred will rise.
Until then,just keep telling us what is going to happen after it happens.
He ain't no PolarBear.
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Old 12-04-2018, 2:23pm   #504
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Buy a Magic 8-ball, no one can tell the future.

I don't give a rat's ass about "credibility," I'm just posting about the stock market in the stock market thread.

I'm 25% cash now because I fear we'll soon be forced to finally pay for our central planning sins, and I hope I'm wrong because I'd rather miss out on gains on that 25% in the short term than see the country suffer what I think the political consequences will be if the bubble bursts while a President who cut taxes and is rightly or wrongly associated with capitalism is in office and the out of office party is enduring a hostile take-over from the far left-wing and the popularization of "socialism."
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Old 12-05-2018, 5:07am   #505
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Invest in things that will increase in value with inflation, like real estate.
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Old 12-05-2018, 6:40pm   #506
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When Great Recession 2.0 hits I'm investing in McDonald's and Constellation Brands.

Everyone's gonna be washing down their dollar menu dinners with Wild Irish Rose.
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Old 12-14-2018, 2:52pm   #507
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S&P Just dipped below 2600.

Dangerously close to the year's low closes. (2581 in Feb., 2581 and 2588 in March and April)

It's been a sell the rip kind of year.

BRING BACK "SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH" PLEASE TIA.
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Old 12-14-2018, 3:33pm   #508
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I'm largely cash (75%) but have a significant stake in AMD. Options are good to April.

I seem to do well with buying near the trough but my battle is always when to sell.
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Old 12-14-2018, 4:02pm   #509
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I'm largely cash (75%)
DAMN!

I moved from 25% to 30% cash earlier this week.

Not willing to go any further than that at this point.

Well, S&P eeked out 2600 at the close. And without the help of any China Trade deal fake news!

EDIT - Spoke too soon, looks like it's settling at 2599.95

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Old 12-20-2018, 2:12pm   #510
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I'm largely cash 75%
Boy are you sitting pretty.

I thought I'd probably end up feeling pretty dumb for moving to 25% then 30% cash. I did not expect to feel dumb because I didn't move enough to cash.
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Old 12-20-2018, 4:41pm   #511
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Boy are you sitting pretty.

I thought I'd probably end up feeling pretty dumb for moving to 25% then 30% cash. I did not expect to feel dumb because I didn't move enough to cash.
Hell, no gurus here anyway. We all know the bottom is going to drop out sometime in the near future.

Earlier this year I missed out on profits by sitting cash heavy. Just dove in a bit this Summer and got back out again at what may be the right time.

Nobody knows for sure but I'm betting heavy on the fact that the market will be "pushed" to crash well in advance of the '20 election.
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Old 12-26-2018, 4:05pm   #512
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What a day

Hard part is I have NO earthly idea whether this was just a quick short squeeze and we're headed for a rebound or whether we're near where the bottom falls out.
For now I'm playing it short term and buying the dips. Hard part with options is the time window isn't there to ride out a substantial storm.

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Old 12-26-2018, 7:52pm   #513
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Just got back from NYC.
Consensus agrees that capitulation was Tuesday.
I basically put my head in the sand and enjoyed Xmas with my family and my BIL's family on Long Island.
My BIL actually said that Tuesday was capitulation, after the close.
Take that for what it's worth, but I was really happy to hear that, and then to see today's bounce.
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Old 12-26-2018, 10:00pm   #514
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I used this face-ripping rally to move some more to cash.

In Trumpian form I'm setting myself up with 2 ways to win. If I'm right and we're just in the early stages of a bear market and have not bottomed, then I've made the right moves with my selling/increasing cash allocation. If I'm wrong and my bearish nature is betraying me, then even though I'm going to miss out on some compounding on all that cash before I finally figure out the Bull is alive and well and push it all back in, then WGAF because Trump will get reelected and my taxes will stay low and we'll get even more right-wing judges and SCOTUS justices and leftists will lose their minds even more than they already have screaming RUSSIA RUSSIA RACIST RACIST 24/7.
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Old 12-26-2018, 10:12pm   #515
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I'm still all cash and I'm still where I was a week ago. No angst and no need to worry about "hold or trade"? The dollar is still worth a dollar, and always shall be no matter what it "trades" for at any given time.
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Old 12-27-2018, 3:41pm   #516
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Uwww....
Looks like the weak hands have been shaken out.
I'd be feathering back in it I had any free cash.
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Old 12-27-2018, 4:11pm   #517
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Uwww....
Looks like the weak hands have been shaken out.
I'd be feathering back in it I had any free cash.
Just stepped back into AMD (heavily) at the trough today.

Really hope there's legs before July when options expire. I've done really well with AMD the last couple years.
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Old 01-02-2019, 4:47pm   #518
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AAPL halted for a pending announcement . . . .


. . . . which turned out to be not good.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/appl...1-results.html


Quote:
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Apple has lowered its Q1 . . . revenue guidance to $84 billion, down from the $89 to $93 billion it had previously projected. The company lowered gross margin to about 38 percent from between 38 percent and 38.5 percent. . . .
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Old 01-07-2019, 10:51am   #519
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Just stepped back into AMD (heavily) at the trough today.

Really hope there's legs before July when options expire. I've done really well with AMD the last couple years.
Scott
Sold 2/3 of my AMD and took 40% profits
Not bad for 10 days "work"

Sitting cash heavy awaiting the next dip.
Nerve wracking volatility...
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