Stock Market Chat

[burtonbl103]

Silver and Gold.........

[Admiral Blue]

2-3% lower for the week...

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Watch how they keep the S&P up over 1460 all day, and then close just under it... These guys know how to keep retail in the game.....

Just when you thought it was safe inside, they drop the floor out just like that..
Today was just nasty. Monday could be nastier, BUT, we seem to be in a trading range right now(1433-1463). The market is teetering on the very bottom of that trading range at today's close of 1433 S&P. That was the close on last Friday too...

[Datawiz]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Just when you thought it was safe inside, they drop the floor out just like that..
Today was just nasty. Monday could be nastier, BUT, we seem to be in a trading range right now(1433-1463). The market is teetering on the very bottom of that trading range at today's close of 1433 S&P. That was the close on last Friday too...

I was starting to wonder if you and I were wrong. I was expecting a nasty October. Seems it's finally coming to fruition.

Cash ready and waiting for bargains.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by datawiz

I was starting to wonder if you and I were wrong. I was expecting a nasty October. Seems it's finally coming to fruition.

Cash ready and waiting for bargains.

You and I both know.......We're never wrong.....

[Datawiz]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

You and I both know.......We're never wrong.....

[Flatbush Harry]

I moved 3.25 megabux$ to cash last week...ooops, I seem to have de-risked appropriately.

It can be shown mathematically, quite easily, in fact, that rebalancing a constant proportion portfolio to its long term target has the same expected return but at less than one half the variance of a portfolio that tries to time the market. This is easily proved by the 1959 semi-variance result from Markowitz...and I can do it too.

Market timing is a beyotch...portfolio management via risk management via i.i.d (id=ndependent, identically distributed returns) is pretty easy.

I write this on the 25th anniversary of Black Monday...that I lived through.

(hic)

Hryra

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Flatbush Harry

I moved 3.25 megabux$ to cash last week...ooops, I seem to have de-risked appropriately.

It can be shown mathematically, quite easily, in fact, that rebalancing a constant proportion portfolio to its long term target has the same expected return but at less than one half the variance of a portfolio that tries to time the market. This is easily proved by the 1959 semi-variance result from Markowitz...and I can do it too.

Market timing is a beyotch...portfolio management via risk management via i.i.d (id=ndependent, identically distributed returns) is pretty easy.

I write this on the 25th anniversary of Black Monday...that I lived through.

(hic)

Hryra

Hell Harry....I just waited until the S&P hit 1460, and then got out of my high risk stuff, and then went all into a bond & mortgage fund . That was a few weeks ago. As of Friday, I'm up another 1% to 24.45% ytd.
I didn't understand a damn thing you said, but if it works for you, then
btw...It's good to hear from you.

[Jeff '79]

All you peeps who held ,in hopes for new highs, better keep hoping that the S&P holds 1400..........Buuuuut, it won't.
Lower lows, and lower highs seem to have a firm grasp on this market now.
Corporations are timing a lot of bad news from now until the election, in hopes of an Obama loss... How much hurt can you handle....???
Figure 20% from the most recent top of 1470 on the S&P...
What would that be? Around 1175 ??? A 290 point drop ?? It happens all the time.
Hard to believe, but that's what I'm banking on....

[Datawiz]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

All you peeps who held ,in hopes for new highs, better keep hoping that the S&P holds 1400..........Buuuuut, it won't.
Lower lows, and lower highs seem to have a firm grasp on this market now.
Corporations are timing a lot of bad news from now until the election, in hopes of an Obama loss... How much hurt can you handle....???
Figure 20% from the most recent top of 1470 on the S&P...
What would that be? Around 1175 ??? A 290 point drop ?? It happens all the time.
Hard to believe, but that's what I'm banking on....

Our evil master plan is happening before us.

Uber cash here, ready to pounce.

[American Made]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

All you peeps who held ,in hopes for new highs, better keep hoping that the S&P holds 1400..........Buuuuut, it won't.
Lower lows, and lower highs seem to have a firm grasp on this market now.
Corporations are timing a lot of bad news from now until the election, in hopes of an Obama loss... How much hurt can you handle....???
Figure 20% from the most recent top of 1470 on the S&P...
What would that be? Around 1175 ??? A 290 point drop ?? It happens all the time.
Hard to believe, but that's what I'm banking on....

How did I know this thread would pop up today. Munis are being priced higher as we speak and one thing to remember if you're into equities; You don't collect dividends when you are parked in cash. It can go back to 6500 on the Dow for all I care to be honest. For those that are timing, you will certainly be able to pick up some great companies at cheaper prices soon. Good luck to all you F'ers.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by American Made

How did I know this thread would pop up today. Munis are being priced higher as we speak and one thing to remember if you're into equities; You don't collect dividends when you are parked in cash. It can go back to 6500 on the Dow for all I care to be honest. For those that are timing, you will certainly be able to pick up some great companies at cheaper prices soon. Good luck to all you F'ers.

Ya, this post was predictable, but did you predict my original one? That's a rhetorical question...
What is the significance of munis being priced higher? The flight to quality, and demand rising for them?

[American Made]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Ya, this post was predictable, but did you predict my original one? That's a rhetorical question...
What is the significance of munis being priced higher? The flight to quality, and demand rising for them?

Yes indeed, plus the european issue with spanish bond auctions starting to do poorly atm. Your point about let's say hypothetically of course Hedge fund Frats emphasizing the rats part, combine efforts to take profits and sell therefore depressing the market indeed to make the economy look weaker to then blame Obama for economic failure, is very plausible.

[Datawiz]

Originally Posted by American Made

Yes indeed, plus the european issue with spanish bond auctions starting to do poorly atm. Your point about let's say hypothetically of course Hedge fund Frats emphasizing the rats part, combine efforts to take profits and sell therefore depressing the market indeed to make the economy look weaker to then blame Obama for economic failure, is very plausible.

Come on. Encourage them to make it happen.

[American Made]

Originally Posted by datawiz

Come on. Encourage them to make it happen.

[Vet4jdc]

I turned my stocks and funds into cash.......YESTERDAY!!!

[kylebuck]

Originally Posted by datawiz

I was starting to wonder if you and I were wrong. I was expecting a nasty October. Seems it's finally coming to fruition.

Cash ready and waiting for bargains.

I've been reading a A Random Walk down Wall Street.i plan on doing some investing soon

[Datawiz]

Originally Posted by joebuck

I've been reading a A Random Walk down Wall Street.i plan on doing some investing soon

Just dip your toes in at this point.

Joey, at your age, simply setting up an IRA, even with a bank, and making regular tax deductible contributions, is a major win. You won't accumulate much wealth if you just play in the market. Your age makes the time value of money work for you big time. Don't lose capital by being silly.

[Admiral Blue]

...Or a Roth IRA.

You guys need to start making money on the way down, rather than just parking in cash. I don't recommend it though without knowing the consequences...it can lead to loss of sleep, nerves and capital.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Admiral Blue

...Or a Roth IRA.

You guys need to start making money on the way down, rather than just parking in cash. I don't recommend it though without knowing the consequences...it can lead to loss of sleep, nerves and capital.

A smart rebalancing strategy can make money on the way up, as well as on the way down.
Since exiting aggressive funds, at S&P 1640, I am up .75% in a Bond & Mortgage fund. It's not a lot in a one month period, but I am not losing a dime either.