Interesting Stock Market Chartist Talk

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by DAB

bought today. end of day price.

The market closed hammer down at the low of the day.
Unless the trade war ends, it's gonna keep droppin.
I'll hold for now even though it is the second Friday in a row the market closed lower.
Hopefully you made the right call DAB. For all our sakes.
This was a 6% down BAD week.
I always say though... By the dip, sell the rip.

[DAB]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

The market closed hammer down at the low of the day.
Unless the trade war ends, it's gonna keep droppin.
I'll hold for now even though it is the second Friday in a row the market closed lower.
Hopefully you made the right call DAB. For all our sakes.
This was a 6% down BAD week.
I always say though... By the dip, sell the rip.

put about 1/2 my available cash in today. another month or two do it again.

this is long term money, 5-10 years.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by DAB

put about 1/2 my available cash in today. another month or two do it again.

this is long term money, 5-10 years.

That's the way you do it.

[DAB]

about 3% of my total.

[Will]

Originally Posted by DAB

put about 1/2 my available cash in today. another month or two do it again.

this is long term money, 5-10 years.

If the DJIA ain't well above 24k ten years from now, we're all screwed.

The past 25 years have seen around a 10% rate of return for the market. Around 10% backtesting for my portfolio as far back as it can be tested as well.

Now that we're underway saving and have 25 years until age 60, I'm sure that will decline with my damn luck.

[Will]

I ended up making my own spreadsheet to break down our portfolio by company/asset and % of overall portfolio.

Got our Vanguard IRA set up how I want it:

• 60% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Admiral Shares)
• 15% VBMFX (Vanguard Total Bond Market)

and 25% split roughly evenly between:

• VCR (Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF)
• VDC (Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF)
• VFH (Vanguard Financials ETF)
• VGT (Vanguard I.T. ETF)
• FDN (First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index ETF)
• PSJ (PowerShares Dynamic Software ETF)
• SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF)

Changed Mrs.' 403(b) to:

• 95% STFAX (State Street Equity 500 Index Fund)
• 5% JAFLX (Janus Henderson VIT Flexible Bond Portfolio)

Initiated a transfer of what little I had with Betterment to a Vanguard taxable account.

Keeping Acorns for now and letting the change add up.

25 years until age 60. LET'S DO THIS.

Assuming conservative 5% RoR for budgeting purposes.

Goal = mortgage paid off by 2032, get retirement/brokerage accounts up to $2 million by 2042.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

I didn't think that 2800 would be hit again.
I'm starting to think that I should have bailed when my 401k was up 11%.
I'll reassess this weekend after today's action.
As of this moment... I do not know.
What I do know is this will be the 2nd week in a row that the S&P closes lower, week over week. One or two more of those and the trend is no longer your friend.

There should be a wave up hitting shortly- maybe to that gap around 2700ish we printed recently? (Gaps always fill. Always). I'd be running like hell on that bounce up though- this chart isn't shaping up at all the way I expected.

The Commitment of Traders Report show the Commercial traders long buy a margin of almost 2:1. Smaller traders are short by a margin of almost 8:1... which explains a lot of that volatility we've seen all of a sudden. *Remember on the steady rise, long and short positions were fairly balanced out?

I have to chew on this a bit as well. I'll be up on the San Juan Islands this week, so internet may be sporadic.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

There should be a wave up hitting shortly- maybe to that gap around 2700ish we printed recently? (Gaps always fill. Always). I'd be running like hell on that bounce up though- this chart isn't shaping up at all the way I expected.

The Commitment of Traders Report show the Commercial traders long buy a margin of almost 2:1. Smaller traders are short by a margin of almost 8:1... which explains a lot of that volatility we've seen all of a sudden. *Remember on the steady rise, long and short positions were fairly balanced out?

I have to chew on this a bit as well. I'll be up on the San Juan Islands this week, so internet may be sporadic.

Ya, I'll be heading for the hills on the next healthy gap up to, like you said, 2700 - 2750. From up 11% ytd to only up 4%... All that work for nuttin'
I said we'd be trading sideways until October. That is when it all goes to hell in a hand basket, imo, , but this is some crazy sideways.

What island is your son on in the San Juan islands?
Liz and I will be meeting a friend who has a 40' Beneteau from July 28th to the 30th, and sailing around the islands for a few days. We are really looking forward to that.

[DAB]

looks like last friday was an excellent day to buy.

[DAB]

The Dow climbed by 669.40, or 2.84%, to 24,202.60 at the close.

The Nasdaq composite rose 227.88, or 3.26%, to 7,220.54, while

the S&P 500 Index gained 70.29, or 2.72%, to 2,658.55.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by DAB

looks like last friday was an excellent day to buy.

[carlton_fritz]

I have 9 shares of Parker Drilling, do not know why, that stock has dropped to 66 cents a share. I only paid $1.12 per, but come on. 52 week low. If there is a company you want to tank, I could make it tank if I have enough money for a couple/few shares.

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Ya, I'll be heading for the hills on the next healthy gap up to, like you said, 2700 - 2750. From up 11% ytd to only up 4%... All that work for nuttin'
I said we'd be trading sideways until October. That is when it all goes to hell in a hand basket, imo, , but this is some crazy sideways.

What island is your son on in the San Juan islands?
Liz and I will be meeting a friend who has a 40' Beneteau from July 28th to the 30th, and sailing around the islands for a few days. We are really looking forward to that.

We were up on Orcas Island. Weather was pretty decent. Lab and son's dog didn't get along very well at first, so son and his g/f did some outdoor meet & greet, and some training to get two alpha's to understand neither was the alpha. Seems to have worked out after all was said and done. G/f's dad has a 45 footer he likes to sail around in his spare time- which he has lots of (retired).

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Things that make you go hmmm...

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

Things that make you go hmmm...

Sideways

[Jeff '79]

After 3 consecutive weeks of the S&P closing lower, week over week, it has now closed up for the past two weeks.
The market is going sideways right now over the largest point swings that I have ever seen. It is fascinating imo.
If Trump settles this trade war thing, the market will sky rocket, but for the time being, we're stuck in a holding pattern.
Ya, I'm holding.

btw, Bitcoin broke through a key technical level today of 8500.
I'm not saying, I'm just saying, you know what I'm saying ?

[Will]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

After 3 consecutive weeks of the S&P closing lower, week over week, it has now closed up for the past two weeks.
The market is going sideways right now over the largest point swings that I have ever seen. It is fascinating imo.
If Trump settles this trade war thing, the market will sky rocket, but for the time being, we're stuck in a holding pattern.
Ya, I'm holding.

btw, Bitcoin broke through a key technical level today of 8500.
I'm not saying, I'm just saying, you know what I'm saying ?

Bitcoin is a scam. It's a manipulated market. That being said, wish I had gotten in on the pyramid scheme at $200 a bitcoin or so when I first took notice. I'm not greedy, when it first passed 10k I would have sold it all. Last week you had the price being mysteriously driven up, then SURPRISE the next day a single wallet dumped $50 million worth.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

After 3 consecutive weeks of the S&P closing lower, week over week, it has now closed up for the past two weeks.
The market is going sideways right now over the largest point swings that I have ever seen. It is fascinating imo.
If Trump settles this trade war thing, the market will sky rocket, but for the time being, we're stuck in a holding pattern.
Ya, I'm holding.

btw, Bitcoin broke through a key technical level today of 8500.
I'm not saying, I'm just saying, you know what I'm saying ?

Originally Posted by Will

Bitcoin is a scam. It's a manipulated market. That being said, wish I had gotten in on the pyramid scheme at $200 a bitcoin or so when I first took notice. I'm not greedy, when it first passed 10k I would have sold it all. Last week you had the price being mysteriously driven up, then SURPRISE the next day a single wallet dumped $50 million worth.

Will, Will, Will.......
Bitcoin is not a scam, especially when you have Fed talking about regulating it.
ALSO, A TRADE IS A TRADE. If you got the ballz, you can make money.
Don't get me wrong... You can lose too, but an educated consumer is your best customer.
BITCOIN IS AT 9715 right now.
When I suggested Bitcoin at 8500 and you mocked me, you should have bought it.
You would have been up $1215 today !!!
But you're not... You're just sitting there with your pecker in your hand saying duuuuh.
Opportunity...
Like the Sears guy who sold the free watches and eventually parlayed that into Sears & Roebuck.
Bitcoin will revisit its high soon.
Mark my words.
From 4/20 - 5/4, $1215.00.... 2 weeks and 1 day.....

[DAB]

i still don't understand bitcoin.

it's not a valuable commodity, like gold or pork bellies.

it's not stock from a company that makes something, like GM or 3M.

it's not a bond with regular interest payments, backed by a company.

it's just this idea.

if i don't understand it, i don't invest in it.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by DAB

i still don't understand bitcoin.

it's not a valuable commodity, like gold or pork bellies.

it's not stock from a company that makes something, like GM or 3M.

it's not a bond with regular interest payments, backed by a company.

it's just this idea.

if i don't understand it, i don't invest in it.

Understand it?
The short story.
The attempt is being made to make a global currency.
No figuring out exchange rates, like you would have to do if you travel.
If Bitcoin ends up being a universally accepted currency in every country, then voila... There is your universal currency.
FF to today.
Bitcoin is in its infancy....
Ya, you had the initial guys who got rich buying it under $1.00, but now, it has retraced, stabilized, and is ready for its next run.
A trade is a trade, but there are few opportunities these days to nail another Amazon....
This may be it... It may not be.
I'm betting it is.
That's all.
I'm not betting the farm on it, but I am in.

Actually I'm in Litecoin.... For the second time.
The first time, I took profits after the run to $300, and now I got back in at $164.00.
It dropped to $113.00 !!!
I held.
It is up to $170.00 today....
Ballz hold in my world, but that's how much I believe in it.