Can You Spot the Flaw?

[FLEXjs]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

You still haven't said whether you believe the methodology is valid. However, the drift I am catching is that you don't - in which case I agree. What's most interesting to me is how, depending on the way you extrapolate the case data, you can get wildly different results for the Infection Mortality Rate that differ by several orders of magnitude.

So how about forget about extrapolating data and just looking at annual deaths from influenza and deaths from Covid.


Owait, we can't do that because the data is ****ed because EVERYTHING is being classified as a covid death.


In 2018 in Canada we had over 8,500 deaths form influenza. We are at about 2,000 from covid and it's pretty much tapered off. More hype than anything.

And again more than half of the deaths were in long-term healthcare facilities. So why are healthy people that are not at risk being denied personal freedoms and losing their jobs?

[Cybercowboy]

Originally Posted by aerovette

Anyone have a count of how many bodies have been discovered in homes or cars that died of COVID-19? Isn't it odd that you only die if you tested positive and went to the hospital?
Anyone heard any stories of self-quarantine people dying at home?

I'm so old that I remember the videos of Wuhan citizens keeling over in the streets, insta-dead.

But then again I've died three times from global warming, twice from net neutrality, four times from Trump's tax cuts, and about six times from the WuFlu.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

You still haven't said whether you believe the methodology is valid. However, the drift I am catching is that you don't - in which case I agree. What's most interesting to me is how, depending on the way you extrapolate the case data, you can get wildly different results for the Infection Mortality Rate that differ by several orders of magnitude.

Personally, I prefer data that has some basis as opposed to somebody's wild ass guess, so yeah, I prefer the comparison that I laid out above. That being, mortality from seasonal flu of nearly 20%, and that from WuFlu currently less than 6%.

BUT, we KNOW that the US government is knowingly and willfully inflating WuFlu death numbers, and they aren't even trying to hide it. I was watching a CDC spokesman video this morning of a black lady explaining what they consider to be a WuFlu death, and she more or less said "it doesn't matter what actually killed the person" to be counted.

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by FLEXjs

So how about forget about extrapolating data and just looking at annual deaths from influenza and deaths from Covid.

I would love to, but we don't have a full year's worth of COVID-19 death data.

Comparing 3 months' of COVID deaths to a full year of Flu deaths would be completely meaningless.

Owait, we can't do that because the data is ****ed because EVERYTHING is being classified as a covid death.

How widespread do you believe this practice is outside of New York? Do you believe there is a conspiracy behind it?

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by Mick

BUT, we KNOW that the US government is knowingly and willfully inflating WuFlu death numbers, and they aren't even trying to hide it. I was watching a CDC spokesman video this morning of a black lady explaining what they consider to be a WuFlu death, and she more or less said "it doesn't matter what actually killed the person" to be counted.

Yeah, I couldn't believe what I was hearing. And I can't believe anyone falls for that shit.

Oh wait, on second thought I can.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

I would love to, but we don't have a full year's worth of COVID-19 death data.

Comparing 3 months' of COVID deaths to a full year of Flu deaths would be completely meaningless.

Really? Do you really believe this?

While I agree that there will be significantly more COVID-19 deaths in the next month or two, are you in the camp that cannot recognize when something has a "seasonality"?

This was my criticism of Girly Whirly's gif comparing the average death per day from heart attacks (something with little seasonality) to the actual experienced deaths from a flu (something known to be highly seasonal).

Think of it this way: I like to go to "Stone Harbor NJ" in the summer to go to the beach. Say I camp there for a year, and record the number of folks visiting the beach each day for a year. At the end of the year, I take total visits for the year, divide by 365, and get "average daily visits". I could then spend every day from December through February writing alarmist articles about how the daily visits are DRAMATICALLY below average, and projecting doom and gloom for the Stone Harbor economy because no one goes to the beach any more. Then, I could spend June through August expounding how the town is being over-run and we need to close the beaches, because the visits are so much higher than average!

In other words, do your own projections for "total cases" and "deaths", and see what the mortality comes up as. Without a major change in the dynamics we are currently observing it will be nowhere close to the average seasonal flu, and we KNOW the deaths for COVID-19 are exaggerated. What does that tell you?

[FLEXjs]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

I would love to, but we don't have a full year's worth of COVID-19 death data.

Comparing 3 months' of COVID deaths to a full year of Flu deaths would be completely meaningless.

Agreed but based on current data it's not trending worse so I don't see it reaching those levels.

Time will tell....

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by FLEXjs

Agreed but based on current data it's not trending worse so I don't see it reaching those levels.

Time will tell....

It will trend worse as each individual area opens up. The question is whether we can keep a handle on it and not overwhelm the healthcare system or if we'll need to go back into lockdown.

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by Mick

Really? Do you really believe this?

While I agree that there will be significantly more COVID-19 deaths in the next month or two, are you in the camp that cannot recognize when something has a "seasonality"?

So far there is no evidence that COVID-19 has seasonality like Influenza does.

Recall that southern hemisphere countries like Argentina, Brazil, South Africa all have COVID-19 cases even though they were still in summer when the outbreak happened.

Also other Corona viruses like MERS continued to spread in places like Saudi Arabia despite 120+ degree daytime temperatures.

I hope you're right, and that COVID-19 will become less of a problem as the weather gets warmer, but there is zero guarantee that this is the case.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by dvarapala

It will trend worse as each individual area opens up. The question is whether we can keep a handle on it and not overwhelm the healthcare system or if we'll need to go back into lockdown.

Originally Posted by dvarapala

So far there is no evidence that COVID-19 has seasonality like Influenza does.

Recall that southern hemisphere countries like Argentina, Brazil, South Africa all have COVID-19 cases even though they were still in summer when the outbreak happened.

Also other Corona viruses like MERS continued to spread in places like Saudi Arabia despite 120+ degree daytime temperatures.

I hope you're right, and that COVID-19 will become less of a problem as the weather gets warmer, but there is zero guarantee that this is the case.

First: I call bullshit on the lack of seasonality. If you really can't see that outbreaks in warm, humid climates have been a lot less severe than cold dry climates just by looking at known data, I don't think I can help you.

Second: You seem to be in the camp that so many in the media are in. Namely: If we don't lockdown sufficiently now, there "might" be a second wave . . . Newsflash: There WILL be a second wave. There will PROBABLY be a third wave, and there MIGHT be a fourth wave. What we do now has little or nothing to do with these things, it's how viruses in populations work.

[Steve_R]

One of three Mayo Clinic hospitals in the U.S. is in Jacksonville. Local news just had a story about how Mayo will receive $150,000,000 from the federal stimulus bill recently passed. Mayo also announced today that they will be issuing furlough notices to thousands of employees, including doctors, nurses and other staff due to lack of patients and work. None of those dollars will go to furloughed employees.

What. The. ****.

[FLEXjs]

Our moron of a Prime Minister announced today that we will not be allowed to go back to what we considered 'normal' even 2 to 3 years down the road and even if there is a vaccine developed for Covid.

What.

The

****.

Our entire country just got cucked.

[Aerovette]

Originally Posted by FLEXjs

Our moron of a Prime Minister announced today that we will not be allowed to go back to what we considered 'normal' even 2 to 3 years down the road and even if there is a vaccine developed for Covid.

What.

The

****.

Our entire country just got cucked.

New World Order has been fully engaged. Resistance is futile.

[FLEXjs]

Originally Posted by aerovette

New World Order has been fully engaged. Resistance is futile.

Seriously this is weird shit happening and everyone just eating it up.


If you had told me this was gonna happen 3 months ago I would have laughed.


It's scary. Million times more scary than any virus.

[Steve_R]

Originally Posted by FLEXjs

Our moron of a Prime Minister announced today that we will not be allowed to go back to what we considered 'normal' even 2 to 3 years down the road and even if there is a vaccine developed for Covid.

What.

The

****.

Our entire country just got cucked.

Canada got cucked when you elected him.

[snide]

Originally Posted by FLEXjs

Our moron of a Prime Minister announced today that we will not be allowed to go back to what we considered 'normal' even 2 to 3 years down the road and even if there is a vaccine developed for Covid.

What.

The

****.

Our entire country just got cucked.

Turdeau needs to be replaced.

[Cybercowboy]

My mother-in-law is horribly brainwashed by this media bullshit. I'd categorize it under "dvarapala serious".

[Steve_R]

Originally Posted by Cybercowboy

My mother-in-law is horribly brainwashed by this media bullshit. I'd categorize it under "dvarapala serious".

That’s brainwashed bad. Condolences.

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by FLEXjs

Our moron of a Prime Minister announced today that we will not be allowed to go back to what we considered 'normal' even 2 to 3 years down the road and even if there is a vaccine developed for Covid.

What.

The

****.

Our entire country just got cucked.

Time to move to the US.

[dvarapala]

Originally Posted by Cybercowboy

My mother-in-law is horribly brainwashed by this media bullshit. I'd categorize it under "dvarapala serious".

My sincere condolences.