Florida Real Estate Market, crash coming?

[GrandSportC3]

YouTube

[Taurus]

They've been predicting the same thing here in Utah as well. My home has doubled almost in value since I bought it in 2019 and that's nuts. As long as demand out paces supply prices will be high. As soon as demand drops for any reason like high interest rate prices will drop.

Here in SLC we still have a huge inventory shortage with a pretty strong buyer pool because of a very high growth rate. I live in a golf community of fairly high priced homes and 4 went on the market this month and all 4 sold in two weeks.

[GrandSportC3]

Originally Posted by Taurus

They've been predicting the same thing here in Utah as well. My home has doubled almost in value since I bought it in 2019 and that's nuts. As long as demand out paces supply prices will be high. As soon as demand drops for any reason like high interest rate prices will drop.

Here in SLC we still have a huge inventory shortage with a pretty strong buyer pool because of a very high growth rate. I live in a golf community of fairly high priced homes and 4 went on the market this month and all 4 sold in two weeks.

The price curve dangerously looks like the one in 2006 - 2007.
Sure, Florida is somewhat unique as many buyers pay cash. Usually it's retiring baby boomers from NJ/NY that sold their $$$$ homes in the Northeast and are paying cash with money to spare. Based on what I read, they account for only 30% of the market. Those who buy their first home need to make at least $150k household income to afford the payment right now. It's crazy. Most peole don't make that kind of money to afford the average home sales price in Florida of almost $450k.

[Taurus]

Originally Posted by GrandSportC3

The price curve dangerously looks like the one in 2006 - 2007.
Sure, Florida is somewhat unique as many buyers pay cash. Usually it's retiring baby boomers from NJ/NY that sold their $$$$ homes in the Northeast and are paying cash with money to spare. Based on what I read, they account for only 30% of the market. Those who buy their first home need to make at least $150k household income to afford the payment right now. It's crazy. Most peole don't make that kind of money to afford the average home sales price in Florida of almost $450k.

The problem with inventory on the market is baby boomers like me sitting on low interest rate mortgages and refusing to sell.

[GrandSportC3]

Originally Posted by Taurus

The problem with inventory on the market is baby boomers like me sitting on low interest rate mortgages and refusing to sell.

Many people are selling and that's why we have the highest inventory of homes for sale in a long time right now.

[vettemed]

It has got to be unsustainable, where prices are at now. They've basically been at a plateau for a while now and a decrease seems inevitable, but then again, the same could be said for the stock market.

[Taurus]

Originally Posted by GrandSportC3

Many people are selling and that's why we have the highest inventory of homes for sale in a long time right now.

Lars can say better than me, but if inventory is high then demand is off and prices will crash. That much is true.

[GrandSportC3]

Originally Posted by Taurus

Lars can say better than me, but if inventory is high then demand is off and prices will crash. That much is true.

I thought that the cash paying boomers from the Northeast will keep driving prices up but it may be drying up a bit. All I have heard is that inventory is high right now which is surprising. It may be seasonal as there are usually more buyers during the colder months.

[DJ_Critterus]

I'm glad I bought my house about $70K below current average prices for my area (and house was completely renovated except the windows, too)

[Onebadcad]

Pricing may lower a little bit, nothing drastic over the next six months.
First-time homebuyer market cannot comeback until rates get under 5.000%, which may not happen--inflation is not going away, and debt will keep increasing.

I would not panic, many have said FLORIDA pricing was dropping for 2+ years, in my neighborhood prices are steady.

[GTOguy]

I've purchased three homes during a crash (that's why I was able to) and sold one during a crash (because I had to) but bought another property at 50% off so it evened out.
Real estate is a long term game, and the best way to build wealth and security.

I am delighted to say that I no longer pay attention to the market in housing as I have no mortgage and am down to one rental property. At 63, I don't need the headache. If I want to live somewhere else, I'll move there and buy a place for cash and live out my years. If a civil war happens, all bets are off.

[GrandSportC3]

I'm hoping for a crash, even if it cuts my net wort in half. All that I'm interested in is rent prices. I want to buy more RE but not anywhere close to the current prices as the ROI as a rental sucks. If you pay $400k for a home to get $2500 rent, it's a bad deal.
Even $3500 rent would barely enough to have a decent profit.

[Frankie the Fink]

Bought in 1998 and just before the 2008 crash my house broke $1 million in value, then dropped down to about $480,000, now its $1.5 million. Paid for and with the Homestead Exemption. My single daughter is in the same boat with her values being about 1/2 of the ones I cite. She has a small 2-something % mortgage.

Neither of us are going anywhere so we don't care. The demand is driving the market as people flee urban liberal messes and boomers retire; it certainly hasn't slacked off yet and I'm 12 miles from Orlando.

Finally, the gal in that video is most highly "doable".

[Steve_R]

Home prices may slow their rise, or even plateau for a bit, but there is no "crash" in real estate coming to FL.

[NoOne]

I do not get it.

I was talking to our mortgage person and neither does he.

We own our own businesses so I'll say this, I have no idea how people with regular jobs, and kids, survive or go out.

We get to raise our prices with inflation and do a lot to protect our income. We don't pay attention to gas prices, food prices, etc...

But I do pay attention to home and other prices. We went to lunch at California Pizza Kitchen, 1 small pizza, 1 small salad and 2 ice Tea's. $59, over $70 with a tip for lunch....lunch!

It has gotten to the point where the expensive places seem reasonable. When our average dinner starts to creep into the $150 range, granted with a drink or wine, but still. Suddenly in comparison to run of the mill restaurants a $300 meal doesn't seem that bad considering the difference in service and quality.

I cannot fathom someone with a regular job, family, kids, etc. buying a house in this market.

I sold my house due to the divorce but my $2,200 a month mortgage, to replace the house I sold would be over double, nearly 5K per month.

Every time we go to the grocery store its $250 and that is for 3-4 nights of meals, again that is a gourmet store and all fresh foods but 4 years ago that same shopping trip was $150.

It is simply not sustainable.

[Raazor]

YouTubers know everything. Be afraid

[BRUIZER]

Crash.
Research the number of mtg interest rates currently sub 4%, sub 5% and sub 6%.
Yeh...the majority of folks are just gonna walk away from those long term, historically low, fixed rate loans.

[NoOne]

One thing is, cars are sitting on lots.

Car sales have slowed dramatically. I see multiple dealers with C8's now just sitting, inventories over 100 days. Nissan told their dealers take up to a $2,500 loss per vehicle to move them.

Dealers are asking for more aggressive incentive packages which I think we'll see shortly.

[GrandSportC3]

Originally Posted by Steve_R

Home prices may slow their rise, or even plateau for a bit, but there is no "crash" in real estate coming to FL.

How are first time homeowners going to afford a house in Florida?
Eventually, we will run out of retiring baby boomers.

[GrandSportC3]

Originally Posted by NoOne

I do not get it.

I was talking to our mortgage person and neither does he.

We own our own businesses so I'll say this, I have no idea how people with regular jobs, and kids, survive or go out.

We get to raise our prices with inflation and do a lot to protect our income. We don't pay attention to gas prices, food prices, etc...

But I do pay attention to home and other prices. We went to lunch at California Pizza Kitchen, 1 small pizza, 1 small salad and 2 ice Tea's. $59, over $70 with a tip for lunch....lunch!

It has gotten to the point where the expensive places seem reasonable. When our average dinner starts to creep into the $150 range, granted with a drink or wine, but still. Suddenly in comparison to run of the mill restaurants a $300 meal doesn't seem that bad considering the difference in service and quality.

I cannot fathom someone with a regular job, family, kids, etc. buying a house in this market.

I sold my house due to the divorce but my $2,200 a month mortgage, to replace the house I sold would be over double, nearly 5K per month.

Every time we go to the grocery store its $250 and that is for 3-4 nights of meals, again that is a gourmet store and all fresh foods but 4 years ago that same shopping trip was $150.

It is simply not sustainable.

Cost of living has become insanely high. I spend like $1500 on groceries every month for a family of 4. It used to be like $700 just a few years ago.