Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff '79
So here we are with the S&P under support once agian.
Will 2142 turn into resistance or will it continue to be support?
Hey Polar Bear...
What are the options telling you?
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The commercials are basically neutral. (435K contracts long, 447K contracts short). That's pretty neutral. As a point of contrast, back in the fall of '99, commercials were short by a margin of almost 3 to 1. Could see that train wreck coming a mile away. Primary difference, the big money can afford to be wrong for an unspecified time.
Two positions that did catch my eye- Commercials are long the British Pound in a big way (3:1), and short the Russian Ruble (4:1). Small traders are almost at the opposite numbers. Guess who I think is right?
CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report - CME (Futures Only)
*These are futures remember. Each S&P contract is 250x the index value. So, over $500,000 a contract. That certainly separates the men from the boys.
*2nd Edit: Look at the calendar. October is traditionally a crappy month as mutuals sell off the losing positions of the year. Thanksgiving to February typically show the best gains. Unless it's an election year. Ahem.