Cliffs: there is actually good news in the Coronavirus numbers that the news will never tell you. If you don’t have the interest level to follow the actual numbers, there are some summaries below.
So, “Doug Junior” aka “Murray Anderson” is accusing me of some stuff, but what is really wrong with his accusations is that he obviously doesn’t know what “growing exponentially” means. A simplified definition is as follows: A percentage growth rate that remains constant each period.
OK, I’ll admit, that isn’t a perfect definition, but it is good enough for our purposes here. Anyway, on 3/30/2020, I posted the following:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
Data source here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Growth of USA total cases day-by-day:
3/26: 25.3%
3/27: 21.9%
3/28: 18.7%
3/29: 15.3%
I'm sure I'm nobody's mathematical genius, but I'm really struggling to find an "exponential" growth in that data. |
Clearly, we have a declining percentage growth rate here, so no indication of exponential growth.
On 4/3/2020, I posted the following:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
If anyone is still watching the numbers: Total US cases have looked exponential the last several days, but doubling every 5+ days, not anywhere close to the 2-3 days folks were projecting a week or so ago.
NJ is expected to peak in 5-6 days from now, depending on what metric you want to use.
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Apparently, Junior has decided that what this means is that I think the number of cases has “never” doubled in 3 days. That is pure unadulterated bullshit, as this post says nothing of the sort.
Junior then introduces an article that he thinks “proves” me wrong, as follows:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Murray
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I could go on with this drivel for a while, but let’s look at some facts:
The article on which Junior wants to rest his hat was published on 3/27/2020, and talking about the fact that total US cases reported doubled from 50,000 to 100,000 from 3/24/2020 to 3/27/2020. However, when I made my first post on the topic on 3.30/2020, additional data on the growth of US cases already falling from the mid 20s to the mid teens as growth rates.
In fact, I even said that the growth rates for a time “looked exponential” in this post of 4/3/2020 trying to be fair:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
If anyone is still watching the numbers: Total US cases have looked exponential the last several days, but doubling every 5+ days, not anywhere close to the 2-3 days folks were projecting a week or so ago.
NJ is expected to peak in 5-6 days from now, depending on what metric you want to use.
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Let’s look at the data:
3/30: 14.1%
3/31: 15.1%
4/1: 14.0%
4/2: 13.9%
Still declining a little, but we did reach 200K cases on 4/1, 5 days after reaching 100K cases. Let’s look at the subsequent data to see if we have an exponential growth, doubling every 5 days?
4/3: 13.2%
4/4: 12.3%
4/5: 8.1%
4/6: 8.7 %
So, growth rates are still declining, and we failed to double cases in 5 days. In fact, we would need a pretty good jump tomorrow in new cases to have a doubling in 6 days, it looks like this doubling requiring 7 days is a lot more likely.
Sorry Junior, you’re not just wrong, you're dead ****ing wrong.