BuckyThreadkiller |
05-26-2010 2:14pm |
What exactly am I looking at? And what do you mean? And why are you posting stuff about the spill in this thread? A MAJOR reason I don't post in CFPR&C and it's because people come into the threads and post nonsensical, off the topic of the thread things like this. Please either stick to the point or start a new thread. There's already a thread here about the oil spill.
My thread is GWB, this week, saying that America needs to reduce it's dependance on foreign oil and do it by means of alternative renewable energy.
But if you need some links to obscure facts about the war for middle eastern oil - here's the recently uncovered Truman policy -
The Persian Gulf: Understanding the American Oil Strategy - Brookings Institution
The salient points as outlined by the Brookings Institute in the summer of 2002 - prior to the UN invasion after Saddam's eviction of UN nuclear inspectors:
Quote:
...
The Genesis of the Oil-Denial Policy
As the Cold War was moving to center stage in American foreign policy in 1948, a new worry emerged in the White House: that the Soviet Union could come to control oil supplies in the Middle East. It is no coincidence that much of the early preoccupation with the potential Soviet threat after the end of World War II centered on the remaining Soviet presence in Iran. But unknown to the public until the recent declassification of National Security Council documents (first uncovered by a reporter for the Kansas City Star, Steve Everly) was the extent of Truman administration concern about the possible Soviet takeover of the oil fields. Equally surprising was that the Truman administration built its strategy not so much on defending the oil fields in the face of a possible Soviet invasion, as on denying the Soviet Union use of the oil fields if it should invade.
The administration quickly developed a detailed plan that was signed by President Truman in 1949 as NSC 26/2 and later supplemented by a series of additional NSC directives. The plan, developed in coordination with the British government and American and British oil companies without the knowledge of governments in the region, called for moving explosives to the Middle East, where they would be stored for use. In case of a Soviet invasion, and as a last resort, the oil installations and refineries would be blown up and oil fields plugged to make it impossible for the Soviet Union to use the oil resources.
So great was the fear that the Soviets might exploit the region's oil that the administration considered deploying "radiological" weapons. Ultimately that option was rejected by the Central Intelligence Agency, as revealed in another recently declassified document, NSC 26/3, dated June 29, 1950. The explanation was this: "Denial of the wells by radiological means can be accomplished to prevent an enemy from utilizing the oil fields, but it could not prevent him from forcing 'expendable' Arabs to enter contaminated areas to open well heads and deplete the reservoirs. Therefore, aside from other effects on the Arab population, it is not considered that radiological means are practicable as a conservation measure." In other words, the logic of the rejection was that besides denying oil to the enemy, the policy also sought future "conservation" of oil, which "means a preservation of the resources for our own use after our reoccupation." Ultimately, more conventional plugging methods were recommended.
The plan was implemented and explosives were moved to the region. Although the State Department apparently expressed reservations that the plan might ultimately signal that the United States was not prepared to defend the local governments, the fear of Soviet control overwhelmed such concerns. Worries intensified still further in 1957, leading the Eisenhower administration to reinforce the plan as fears of regional instability grew following the Suez crisis. Evidence suggests that the plan remained in place at least through the early 1960s.
Denying Oil to Potential Enemies Today
Today, the prevailing perception in Washington is that Iraq and Iran are aggressive, dangerous states. Deterring their ability to encroach on Saudi oil fields—hence denying these states additional oil revenues—is one aim of the continuing American presence in the region. The underlying concern is not just about possible disruptions in oil supplies, and ensuing price shocks, that the actions of hostile regimes could occasion. The larger issue, from the standpoint of the United States, is that if Iraq or Iran were to enrich themselves by taking control of additional oil reserves, these regimes would soon become more menacing to the United States than they already are, even if they were eager to sell to the rest of the world all the oil they seized.
The extent to which Iraq and Iran are a threat will remain a matter of debate. Do they pose a threat to the United States? Or is the U.S. concern more for its friends in the region, especially Israel, for whom the two states are potential threats? It is hard to imagine the circumstances under which the current governments in Iraq and Iran (but especially in Iraq) will be seen as anything less than aggressive and threatening, especially since President Bush has declared them, together with North Korea, as the "evil axis" that will feature centrally in the war on terrorism. This outlook makes it likely that any American administration in the foreseeable future will continue to try to prevent these two states from coming to control the bulk of the world's known oil reserves—independent of U.S. concern for friendly Arab governments in the Gulf.
But whatever the reasoning behind the American military strategy, it remains in the interest of the Gulf Cooperation Council states to have American military backing. That gives the United States some leverage, but only up to a point since GCC states know that the U.S. strategy also serves American interests. The result is clear mutual incentives to cooperate. Certainly, when threats to oil are clear, as in the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Saudi Arabia and other GCC states will undoubtedly rally behind the United States to defend the oil fields. And even without imminent threat, GCC states, especially Kuwait, have an interest in the U.S. presence in the region. U.S. forces are spread throughout much of the Gulf, from prepositioned equipment in Qatar, to forces and equipment in Kuwait, to the naval facilities in Bahrain. The Saudis, who also host American troops, have incentives to maintain an American presence in the region even as they seek to lower the numbers and the profile of American forces on their own soil for fear of public backlash.
The extent to which the Saudi public resents the American presence as such is not entirely known (although obviously segments of that public do). What is clear is that much of the resentment of the United States is a function of the Arab-Israeli conflict, which has been a visible sore point in the U.S.-Saudi relationship in the past year. The Saudi government is reflecting a pervasive public mood on this issue. In a survey I conducted in Saudi Arabia last summer, 63 percent of Saudis ranked the Palestinian issue as "the single most important issue" to them personally, and another 20 percent ranked it among the top three. In a new survey among Saudi elites in late January, 66 percent said that their frustrations with the United States would be completely removed or significantly reduced if Washington could succeed in brokering Arab-Israeli peace. Importantly, 86 percent said that their frustrations with the United States are based on "its policies" and only 6 percent said they are based on "its values."
But in the months since September 11, the Saudis have discovered that their public perception of the illegitimacy of the American presence on their soil is a threat to them as well as to that presence—just as the United States has discovered the depth of public resentment in the region. This will necessitate mutual cooperation. The Saudis will have to transmit to their public the sort of friendship with America that has existed at the governmental level, and the United States will need to work with them to reduce the level and the profile of American forces without jeopardizing its military strategy. The Saudis will continue to need American backing, and the United States will continue to need their cooperation. The Gulf region and its immense oil reserves will only become more important for the global economy in the future.
|
|