Florida Real Estate Market, crash coming?

[GrandSportC3]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AW_UtI0v-U

[Taurus]

They've been predicting the same thing here in Utah as well. My home has doubled almost in value since I bought it in 2019 and that's nuts. As long as demand out paces supply prices will be high. As soon as demand drops for any reason like high interest rate prices will drop.

Here in SLC we still have a huge inventory shortage with a pretty strong buyer pool because of a very high growth rate. I live in a golf community of fairly high priced homes and 4 went on the market this month and all 4 sold in two weeks.

[GrandSportC3]

They've been predicting the same thing here in Utah as well. My home has doubled almost in value since I bought it in 2019 and that's nuts. As long as demand out paces supply prices will be high. As soon as demand drops for any reason like high interest rate prices will drop.

Here in SLC we still have a huge inventory shortage with a pretty strong buyer pool because of a very high growth rate. I live in a golf community of fairly high priced homes and 4 went on the market this month and all 4 sold in two weeks.

The price curve dangerously looks like the one in 2006 - 2007.
Sure, Florida is somewhat unique as many buyers pay cash. Usually it's retiring baby boomers from NJ/NY that sold their $$$$ homes in the Northeast and are paying cash with money to spare. Based on what I read, they account for only 30% of the market. Those who buy their first home need to make at least $150k household income to afford the payment right now. It's crazy. Most peole don't make that kind of money to afford the average home sales price in Florida of almost $450k.

[Taurus]

The price curve dangerously looks like the one in 2006 - 2007.
Sure, Florida is somewhat unique as many buyers pay cash. Usually it's retiring baby boomers from NJ/NY that sold their $$$$ homes in the Northeast and are paying cash with money to spare. Based on what I read, they account for only 30% of the market. Those who buy their first home need to make at least $150k household income to afford the payment right now. It's crazy. Most peole don't make that kind of money to afford the average home sales price in Florida of almost $450k.

The problem with inventory on the market is baby boomers like me sitting on low interest rate mortgages and refusing to sell.

[GrandSportC3]

The problem with inventory on the market is baby boomers like me sitting on low interest rate mortgages and refusing to sell.

Many people are selling and that's why we have the highest inventory of homes for sale in a long time right now.

[vettemed]

It has got to be unsustainable, where prices are at now. They've basically been at a plateau for a while now and a decrease seems inevitable, but then again, the same could be said for the stock market.

[Taurus]

Many people are selling and that's why we have the highest inventory of homes for sale in a long time right now.

Lars can say better than me, but if inventory is high then demand is off and prices will crash. That much is true.

[GrandSportC3]

Lars can say better than me, but if inventory is high then demand is off and prices will crash. That much is true.

I thought that the cash paying boomers from the Northeast will keep driving prices up but it may be drying up a bit. All I have heard is that inventory is high right now which is surprising. It may be seasonal as there are usually more buyers during the colder months.

[DJ_Critterus]

I'm glad I bought my house about $70K below current average prices for my area (and house was completely renovated except the windows, too)

[Onebadcad]

Pricing may lower a little bit, nothing drastic over the next six months.
First-time homebuyer market cannot comeback until rates get under 5.000%, which may not happen--inflation is not going away, and debt will keep increasing.

I would not panic, many have said FLORIDA pricing was dropping for 2+ years, in my neighborhood prices are steady.

[GTOguy]

I've purchased three homes during a crash (that's why I was able to) and sold one during a crash (because I had to) but bought another property at 50% off so it evened out.
Real estate is a long term game, and the best way to build wealth and security.

I am delighted to say that I no longer pay attention to the market in housing as I have no mortgage and am down to one rental property. At 63, I don't need the headache. If I want to live somewhere else, I'll move there and buy a place for cash and live out my years. If a civil war happens, all bets are off.

[GrandSportC3]

I'm hoping for a crash, even if it cuts my net wort in half. All that I'm interested in is rent prices. I want to buy more RE but not anywhere close to the current prices as the ROI as a rental sucks. If you pay $400k for a home to get $2500 rent, it's a bad deal.
Even $3500 rent would barely enough to have a decent profit.

[Frankie the Fink]

Bought in 1998 and just before the 2008 crash my house broke $1 million in value, then dropped down to about $480,000, now its $1.5 million. Paid for and with the Homestead Exemption. My single daughter is in the same boat with her values being about 1/2 of the ones I cite. She has a small 2-something % mortgage.

Neither of us are going anywhere so we don't care. The demand is driving the market as people flee urban liberal messes and boomers retire; it certainly hasn't slacked off yet and I'm 12 miles from Orlando.

Finally, the gal in that video is most highly "doable".

[Steve_R]

Home prices may slow their rise, or even plateau for a bit, but there is no "crash" in real estate coming to FL. :rolleyes:

[NoOne]

I do not get it.

I was talking to our mortgage person and neither does he.

We own our own businesses so I'll say this, I have no idea how people with regular jobs, and kids, survive or go out.

We get to raise our prices with inflation and do a lot to protect our income. We don't pay attention to gas prices, food prices, etc...

But I do pay attention to home and other prices. We went to lunch at California Pizza Kitchen, 1 small pizza, 1 small salad and 2 ice Tea's. $59, over $70 with a tip for lunch....lunch!

It has gotten to the point where the expensive places seem reasonable. When our average dinner starts to creep into the $150 range, granted with a drink or wine, but still. Suddenly in comparison to run of the mill restaurants a $300 meal doesn't seem that bad considering the difference in service and quality.

I cannot fathom someone with a regular job, family, kids, etc. buying a house in this market.

I sold my house due to the divorce but my $2,200 a month mortgage, to replace the house I sold would be over double, nearly 5K per month.

Every time we go to the grocery store its $250 and that is for 3-4 nights of meals, again that is a gourmet store and all fresh foods but 4 years ago that same shopping trip was $150.

It is simply not sustainable.

[Raazor]

YouTubers know everything. Be afraid :yesnod:

https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds (https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds)https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds (https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds)https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds (https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds)

[BRUIZER]

Crash. :rofl:
Research the number of mtg interest rates currently sub 4%, sub 5% and sub 6%.
Yeh...the majority of folks are just gonna walk away from those long term, historically low, fixed rate loans.

[NoOne]

One thing is, cars are sitting on lots.

Car sales have slowed dramatically. I see multiple dealers with C8's now just sitting, inventories over 100 days. Nissan told their dealers take up to a $2,500 loss per vehicle to move them.

Dealers are asking for more aggressive incentive packages which I think we'll see shortly.

[GrandSportC3]

Home prices may slow their rise, or even plateau for a bit, but there is no "crash" in real estate coming to FL. :rolleyes:

How are first time homeowners going to afford a house in Florida?
Eventually, we will run out of retiring baby boomers.

[GrandSportC3]

I do not get it.

I was talking to our mortgage person and neither does he.

We own our own businesses so I'll say this, I have no idea how people with regular jobs, and kids, survive or go out.

We get to raise our prices with inflation and do a lot to protect our income. We don't pay attention to gas prices, food prices, etc...

But I do pay attention to home and other prices. We went to lunch at California Pizza Kitchen, 1 small pizza, 1 small salad and 2 ice Tea's. $59, over $70 with a tip for lunch....lunch!

It has gotten to the point where the expensive places seem reasonable. When our average dinner starts to creep into the $150 range, granted with a drink or wine, but still. Suddenly in comparison to run of the mill restaurants a $300 meal doesn't seem that bad considering the difference in service and quality.

I cannot fathom someone with a regular job, family, kids, etc. buying a house in this market.

I sold my house due to the divorce but my $2,200 a month mortgage, to replace the house I sold would be over double, nearly 5K per month.

Every time we go to the grocery store its $250 and that is for 3-4 nights of meals, again that is a gourmet store and all fresh foods but 4 years ago that same shopping trip was $150.

It is simply not sustainable.

Cost of living has become insanely high. I spend like $1500 on groceries every month for a family of 4. It used to be like $700 just a few years ago.

[GrandSportC3]

YouTubers know everything. Be afraid :yesnod:

https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds (https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds)https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds (https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds)https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds (https://hosting.photobucket.com/albums/cc316/Raazorred/Videos/Emotes/.highres/sAni_sheep1.gif?width=180&height=180&fit=bounds)

They happen to be Real Estate professionals.

[Steve_R]

Cost of living has become insanely high. I spend like $1500 on groceries every month for a family of 4. It used to be like $700 just a few years ago.

Do you talk the same way you type? I thought only millennials stuck random "like" words in sentences where they're not needed or make any sense.

They happen to be Real Estate professionals.

*YouTube professionals. Big difference.

[Swany00]

if the housing market crashes, you can bet your ass the rental market will be as negatively impacted.

[Big bob]

Do you talk the same way you type? I thought only millennials stuck random "like" words in sentences where they're not needed or make any sense.



*YouTube professionals Big difference.


How many languages do you speak? Are you a pain in the ass with all of them?


103295

[dvarapala]

How are first time homeowners going to afford a house in Florida?
Eventually, we will run out of retiring baby boomers.

Don't worry, rich FOB Chinese will take up the slack. :yesnod:

That trend is already starting here on the west coast. Since the Chinese real estate market has collapsed, they are smuggling their money out of China and buying up properties here.

[MY03C5Z]

Cost of living has become insanely high. I spend like $1500 on groceries every month for a family of 4. It used to be like $700 just a few years ago.



Family of 4 here, that’s a bit of a stretch. Food prices have certainly gone up in the last few years, but they certainly haven’t more than doubled. Be a bit more realistic. 40-50% increase since Covid started. Not a 100% price increase though…..

[GixxerBill RIP]

They've been predicting the same thing here in Utah as well. My home has doubled almost in value since I bought it in 2019 and that's nuts. As long as demand out paces supply prices will be high. As soon as demand drops for any reason like high interest rate prices will drop.

Here in SLC we still have a huge inventory shortage with a pretty strong buyer pool because of a very high growth rate. I live in a golf community of fairly high priced homes and 4 went on the market this month and all 4 sold in two weeks.
Demographics is destiny.

What Utah has going for it is that Obama wasn't able to fundamentally change that part of America by paying government dependent people of color welfare parasites to move there. Even the shittiest parts of SLC are still nicer than the good parts of most large cities.

As long as the White's are fleeing minority overflowing shithole cities to Utah home prices will continue to rise

[LATB]

I'm hoping for a crash, even if it cuts my net wort in half.
What a foolish position to take. Pure greed.

All that I'm interested in is rent prices.
Are you ignorant enough to think that rental rates won't fall along with property values. Self centered greed.

I want to buy more RE but not anywhere close to the current prices as the ROI as a rental sucks. If you pay $400k for a home to get $2500 rent, it's a bad deal.
Even $3500 rent would barely enough to have a decent profit.
Your problem is you are not well resourced enough. You are paying interest on a mortgage. Savvy investors leverage real estate when they want to not because they have to.

[dvarapala]

YouTubers know everything. Be afraid :yesnod:


:iagree:

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io3DfHMnL5Q

[GrandSportC3]

Do you talk the same way you type? I thought only millennials stuck random "like" words in sentences where they're not needed or make any sense.



*YouTube professionals. Big difference.
approximately is too long of a word.

[GrandSportC3]

if the housing market crashes, you can bet your ass the rental market will be as negatively impacted.

It will be affected but nowhere close to the rate that home values will drop. Guaranteed.

[LATB]

It will be affected but nowhere close to the rate that home values will drop. Guaranteed.

You would be incorrect.

[GrandSportC3]

:iagree:

KgyAUkMesf4
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riZnDif6YqE
TyTx9s7-gRo
ntqtxQJpLJ4
io3DfHMnL5Q
All it takes is to look at Zillow to see that homes are no longer selling like they used to. Every 3rd house on the market had a price cut. It may be the beginning of a crash. Current prices are not sustainable.

[GrandSportC3]

You would be incorrect.

Really? Home values dropped 50 to 70% and rents dropped a couple % during the crash.

[Steve_R]

It will be affected but nowhere close to the rate that home values will drop. Guaranteed.

.

[LATB]

Really? Home values dropped 50 to 70% and rents dropped a couple % during the crash.

Not sure I understand the chart and frankly I don’t care to understand it.

What is rather disappointing is that you would like to see the real estate market crash so you can purchase a rental because the current market has gotten a bit rich for your taste.
That is pure greed. At the expense of millions of Americans who potentially would be affected.
Not a good look there hoss.

[Vette40th]

If you cant afford the mortgage, sorry.. Not sure what to say.
I bought in 2010, rate is low as hell. I can live within means.
I dont want to live in fear

[Yadkin]

I have 90% equity on my home mortgage, in year 4? of a 15 year note paying 3.25%. And nowhere near Floriduh.

[Vette40th]

I know what I have left to pay. I am not selling. I just need it paid off before I retire.

[GrandSportC3]

Not sure I understand the chart and frankly I don’t care to understand it.

What is rather disappointing is that you would like to see the real estate market crash so you can purchase a rental because the current market has gotten a bit rich for your taste.
That is pure greed. At the expense of millions of Americans who potentially would be affected.
Not a good look there hoss.
How about the Millions who can't afford a house right now due to the crazy prices?
I'm a businessman and of course I want market events in my favor just like those in the stock market are in it to make momey. If you short a stock, you benefit from it crashing.
A crash doesn't hurt homeowners. Their monthly cost they pay will not increase in case of a crash.

[Vette40th]

Well, certain policies have caused this. Vote wisely, Vote hard and vote often..

[GrandSportC3]

Well, certain policies have caused this. Vote wisely, Vote hard and vote often..

Alla caused by printing money and sending checks to people to buy votes.
Government's failed response to COVID19.

[99 pewtercoupe]

Looking at Florida real estate you have to differentiate condos from single family homes. Existing condo prices are taking a major hit due to legislation enacted after the Surfside collapse in 2021. Condo associations are now required to have reserves sufficient to meet repairs necessary to meet code. There are a ton of older condos that owners are facing five or even six figures assessments to meet the requirements so people are bailing out. There are condos in south Florida that are selling for a fraction of what they cost previously because of this. I know of some ocean front condos in my community that the owners are looking at mid five figures assessments for this very reason.)

[LATB]

How about the Millions who can't afford a house right now due to the crazy prices?
I'm a businessman and of course I want market events in my favor just like those in the stock market are in it to make momey. If you short a stock, you benefit from it crashing.
A crash doesn't hurt homeowners. Their monthly cost they pay will not increase in case of a crash.

I get it. You are ok seeing 10’s of millions of people hurt by a crash so people who currently can’t afford to purchase a home can afford one.

Of course there is little chance that the crash economy will affect buying power regardless of home prices. :rolleyes:

[Chemtrails99]

How are first time homeowners going to afford a house in Florida?
Eventually, we will run out of retiring baby boomers.


Like the rest of this thread, you're ignoring the number one thing that affects Florida housing: Hurricane Season.

Invaders get their first real taste if a direct hit and the wife wants to move to Maine or some other " safe" place. Market floods with unsalable houses and prices plummet. Apartments empty because renters insurance don't want to go 3 weeks without power or a way to run a generator on the fifth floor.

Stupid beach front buildings cant get insurance and get abandoned and hopefully destroyed. It's been the same for the last 120+ years, only the magnitude of change grows

BTW, Mikes Weather and NOAA all predicted the worst season in years. Time will tell. But it's sure funny watching all the north bound roads dead stopped 24/7. Crackers stay home with the home protection devices cleaned and loaded for when the Escalades start slow cruising the suburbs instead of Hood Cruising....

[donuts]

Pricing may lower a little bit, nothing drastic over the next six months.
First-time homebuyer market cannot comeback until rates get under 5.000%, which may not happen--inflation is not going away, and debt will keep increasing.

I would not panic, many have said FLORIDA pricing was dropping for 2+ years, in my neighborhood prices are steady.

The rate drop won’t make a difference because as soon as it does listing prices will go up. First time buyers will have to suck it up and make sacrifices just like every other generation.

[GrandSportC3]

I get it. You are ok seeing 10’s of millions of people hurt by a crash so people who currently can’t afford to purchase a home can afford one.

Of course there is little chance that the crash economy will affect buying power regardless of home prices. :rolleyes:

How are they hurt by it?
Let's say you buy a $500k home.. After the crash, it's worth $300k. So, how do you lose anything?? Now, you sell the home and if you want to buy a similar sized home, you have to pay $300k, not $500k, so you don't lose anything.
All that suffers is your net worth on paper. If you sell and buy another home, you will pay LESS for the other home as well. The only time you really take the hit is if you sell and don't want to buy another home with the money.

[Big bob]

With the weather patterns looks like a lot of north wind blowing in the swamplands down there.


103306

[GrandSportC3]

The rate drop won’t make a difference because as soon as it does listing prices will go up. First time buyers will have to suck it up and make sacrifices just like every other generation.

The situation for first time buyers was never that bad in history. Income vs. Housing prices is the worst IN HISTORY!

[LATB]

The rate drop won’t make a difference because as soon as it does listing prices will go up. First time buyers will have to suck it up and make sacrifices just like every other generation.

This ^^^ exactly.
My young nephew brought his first house for 400K. My 1st was less than 100K. I was making 30 grand a year. He’s knocking down 200. Cry me a river.

[LATB]

How are they hurt by it?
Let's say you buy a $500k home.. After the crash, it's worth $300k. So, how do you lose anything?? Now, you sell the home and if you want to buy a similar sized home, you have to pay $300k, not $500k, so you don't lose anything.
All that suffers is your net worth on paper. If you sell and buy another home, you will pay LESS for the other home as well. The only time you really take the hit is if you sell and don't want to buy another home with the money.


You have a narrow view.
The real estate industry affects 10’s of millions of people who work in and around the business. Not all of them are homeowners. Many who are homeowners and property owners themselves get hit with both ends of the stick.
Others may lose their jobs or see cutbacks, pushing them further from home ownership.

[Steve_R]

The situation for first time buyers was never that bad in history. Income vs. Housing prices is the worst IN HISTORY!


:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[GrandSportC3]

You have a narrow view.
The real estate industry affects 10’s of millions of people who work in and around the business. Not all of them are homeowners. Many who are homeowners and property owners themselves get hit with both ends of the stick.
Others may lose their jobs or see cutbacks, pushing them further from home ownership.Rising or dropping home values both create winners and losers. It's just different winners and different losers.

[LATB]

Rising or dropping home values both create winners and losers. It's just different winners and different losers.

No one would argue that cliche.
One may argue that hoping for a crash so you can be a winner is probably not the best look.

[GrandSportC3]

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Not sure what's funny about that. It's a reality. The chart in this link only goes to 2020 and prices have gone up more since.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/

[LATB]

What about the millions of renters who can't afford to buy because of high prices? Do these people not benefit if overinflated prices correct? :shrug:

The economy post crash would not help those who already don’t have the means to buy.

[Steve_R]

Says this:

The situation for first time buyers was never that bad in history. Income vs. Housing prices is the worst IN HISTORY!

Posts data since 1985 as proof.

Not sure what's funny about that. It's a reality. The chart in this link only goes to 2020 and prices have gone up more since.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/

Hint: History started before 1985. A statistician should know that.

Even if your claim is true, why is that your problem to fix? Why is it my problem to fix? We bought our first house when Carter was President. We were thrilled to close at 12.5% interest on the mortgage. We made it work.

[GrandSportC3]

No one would argue that cliche.
One may argue that hoping for a crash so you can be a winner is probably not the best look.

I'm already a winner. I don't need a crash to do well but if one happens, I will take advantage of it.

[PLRX]

They've been predicting the same thing here in Utah as well. My home has doubled almost in value since I bought it in 2019 and that's nuts. As long as demand out paces supply prices will be high. As soon as demand drops for any reason like high interest rate prices will drop.

Here in SLC we still have a huge inventory shortage with a pretty strong buyer pool because of a very high growth rate. I live in a golf community of fairly high priced homes and 4 went on the market this month and all 4 sold in two weeks.

The Chinese are buying homes all over the country. They kept calling; the last one I asked for was $500,000. She said, "When can you move?" My home is in Riverside, CA, and it's 1,500 sqft. This area is nothing like a hotshot city like San Diego, Phoenix, etc.

The chinxs are invading our country.

[GrandSportC3]

Says this:



Posts data since 1985 as proof.



Hint: History started before 1985. A statistician should know that.

Even if your claim is true, why is that your problem to fix? Why is it my problem to fix? We bought our first house when Carter was President. We were thrilled to close at 12.5% interest on the mortgage. We made it work.

In no time in history was it more difficult for first time homebuyers.

[Taurus]

This ^^^ exactly.
My young nephew brought his first house for 400K. My 1st was less than 100K. I was making 30 grand a year. He’s knocking down 200. Cry me a river.

Yup. My first home was $70k at 11% on a combined $40k a year. We made it happen, the current generations can as well.

[ZipZap]

How are they hurt by it?
Let's say you buy a $500k home.. After the crash, it's worth $300k. So, how do you lose anything?? Now, you sell the home and if you want to buy a similar sized home, you have to pay $300k, not $500k, so you don't lose anything.
All that suffers is your net worth on paper. If you sell and buy another home, you will pay LESS for the other home as well. The only time you really take the hit is if you sell and don't want to buy another home with the money.

Because his note is $400k. How does he sell? Bring $100k to the table?

I guess if you use Monopoly money, they let you do this, but if you are upside down on your mortgage because of a crash, you are ****ed.

[Bill]

Because his note is $400k. How does he sell? Bring $100k to the table?

I guess if you use Monopoly money, they let you do this, but if you are upside down on your mortgage because of a crash, you are ****ed.

:iagree:

Some banks OK'ed short sales after the last crash in 2009, but as you point out, the homeowner is still on the hook for the difference between the cash raised from the sale and what is still owed on the home.

The only way to go unscathed in that situation, is to stay and continue making the payments on the home. A bright spot is, property taxes should decrease based on the new lower value. Of course PMI might also be demanded again, because the homeowner's equity has now vanished. Staying in the home makes the loss an unrealized loss, a paper only loss, and not any detriment to the homeowner's standard of living.....as long as the homeowner can still make the payments.

[LATB]

I'm already a winner. I don't need a crash to do well but if one happens, I will take advantage of it.

That's not how you presented your position earlier in this thread.

[LATB]

The price curve dangerously looks like the one in 2006 - 2007.
Sure, Florida is somewhat unique as many buyers pay cash. Usually it's retiring baby boomers from NJ/NY that sold their $$$$ homes in the Northeast and are paying cash with money to spare. Based on what I read, they account for only 30% of the market. Those who buy their first home need to make at least $150k household income to afford the payment right now. It's crazy. Most peole don't make that kind of money to afford the average home sales price in Florida of almost $450k.

Meanwhile I recently closed a nice 2 year old 4 bedroom home for 270K.

[zsr22]

The problem with inventory on the market is baby boomers like me sitting on low interest rate mortgages and refusing to sell.

Are there a lot of baby boomers who still have mortgages?

[GrandSportC3]

Because his note is $400k. How does he sell? Bring $100k to the table?

I guess if you use Monopoly money, they let you do this, but if you are upside down on your mortgage because of a crash, you are ****ed.

So, it only affects people who owe most of their mortgage and not those who actually have good equity in their home. In the end, those affected are the ones who bought at the peak of the market short time before the crash while a crash HELPS a much larger amount of people to get their first home. Each scenario has winners and losers. It's just different winners and losers. It's just like during the used car shortage. If you bought a used car in late 2021 to 2022, you probably paid twice as much as the car is worth now, 2 years later. Same thing applies when you buy a stock at the peak of the market before it crashes. There is always winners and losers regardless where the market goes. You make a conscious decision to buy something, regardless what it is. If you see car prices or housing prices rise unusually fast, MAYBE it's not a good time to buy at that time. Maybe it's heading into a crash? Every major purchase comes with a risk.

[GrandSportC3]

Meanwhile I recently closed a nice 2 year old 4 bedroom home for 270K.

No such thing around here UNLESS you want to buy in the hood. Yes, you can get homes under $300k in the hood, but who wants to live in the hood?

[A/E]

Yup. My first home was $70k at 11% on a combined $40k a year. We made it happen, the current generations can as well.

Yeah, but yer Cable Bill was $25 not $235

You Didn't Need " Internet " just to survive at $100 a mo . .

Home Owners & Car Insurance in Hurricane Peninsula is as high a Mtg, Payment now

Also . ..

Florida is like a Third World Country with the influx of new " residents "

Wherever you go ~ New Floridians aint speaking English ~

Gators eating Small Pets & Senior Citizens ~

People Want OUT . . .

Shit ~ even the Kinky Swingers in the Villages aint enough draw me there . .:rofl:

[LATB]

No such thing around here UNLESS you want to buy in the hood. Yes, you can get homes under $300k in the hood, but who wants to live in the hood?

But it is such a thing in many areas around the state that is not the hood.

A quick search of Polk county shows 1077 homes under 300K for sale.
This doesn't look like the hood to me?
103315

[LATB]

The hood?
103316

[LATB]

An older home but over an acre on the lake...
Is this "the hood"??

103317

[GrandSportC3]

The hood?
103316

Have you read the description. House has CHINESE DRYWALL issue. This costs a significant amount of money to replace..

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6881-Brompton-Dr-Lakeland-FL-33809/71114128_zpid/

The other home is in Indian Estates which is in the middle of nowhere, not close to any employers. May work for retirees but not for someone with a job.

[LATB]

Have you read the description. House has CHINESE DRYWALL issue. This costs a significant amount of money to replace..

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6881-Brompton-Dr-Lakeland-FL-33809/71114128_zpid/

The other home is in Indian Estates which is in the middle of nowhere, not close to any employers. May work for retirees but not for someone with a job.

Again, you are shown to be incorrect and then you move the goal post.

[GrandSportC3]

An older home but over an acre on the lake...
Is this "the hood"??

103317

Fort Meade isn't really anywhere close to any employers. It's in the middle of Polk County..

I was talking about my are (Lakeland) and around Lakeland.. The only house you posted up in my area is a CHINESE DRYWALL ISSUE house.
This requires taking out everything from the house and replacing every single piece of drywall. That's why the house is cheap.

[GrandSportC3]

Again, you are shown to be incorrect and then you move the goal post.

No, I'm not incorrect. Obviously, I was talking about livable houses without toxic drywall..

From the description of the listing you posted:

CASH ONLY!! ACT FAST!! Beautiful 4 bedroom/2 bathroom/2 Car Garage with a Screen-In Pool, split floor plan too. Located on a corner lot in a nice gated community! House has Chinese Drywall Throughout & roof is original to home, pool is leaking and hot tub doesn't work - which is reflected in price. However, this home has LOTS & LOTS OF Potential and currently being rented right now!! (PLEASE NOTE: The Chinese Drywall is

YOU CAN'T EVEN FINANCE THAT HOME (and most people do). The Pool potentially requires an expensive repair as it has a leak..

[LATB]

Fort Meade isn't really anywhere close to any employers. It's in the middle of Polk County..

I was talking about my are (Lakeland) and around Lakeland.. The only house you posted up in my area is a CHINESE DRYWALL ISSUE house.
This requires taking out everything from the house and replacing every single piece of drywall. That's why the house is cheap.

There are over 1,000 homes in Polk county under 300K.
You said only homes in the hood are under 300K and you are incorrect.

[LATB]

No, I'm not incorrect. Obviously, I was talking about livable houses without toxic drywall..

From the description of the listing you posted:



YOU CAN'T EVEN FINANCE THAT HOME (and most people do). The Pool potentially requires an expensive repair as it has a leak..

That is one example of the 1000 homes.
And that home will probably be bought for significantly less than the asking price.
And many investors have cash.

[GrandSportC3]

There are over 1,000 homes in Polk county under 300K.
You said only homes in the hood are under 300K and you are incorrect.

Now, try an area where you can actually be close to employers like Lakeland or Winter Haven and not in some little town in the middle of nowhere. Obviously, people want reasonable commute time to their jobs. Yes, there are many homes under $300k but they are either very old and/or in horrible ZIP codes.

Of course, you can find 1 - 2 bedroom old homes for under but not a decent 3 or 4 bedroom home in a decent ZIP where you are safe.

[LATB]

Now, try an area where you can actually be close to employers like Lakeland or Winter Haven and not in some little town in the middle of nowhere. Obviously, people want reasonable commute time to their jobs. Yes, there are many homes under $300k but they are either very old and/or in horrible ZIP codes.

Of course, you can find 1 - 2 bedroom old homes for under but not a decent 3 or 4 bedroom home in a decent ZIP where you are safe.

I'm not trying anything. I did a quick look and I'm not doing a deep dive.
You would change the criteria anyway if I did find a home that came close to your criteria.

[GrandSportC3]

That is one example of the 1000 homes.
And that home will probably be bought for significantly less than the asking price.
And many investors have cash.

Unless the investor does their own work, that home you posted will likely cost $100k in repairs before you can re-sell it.. Sure, it might yield $400k+ if you sell it but the risk you are taking if the market starts tanking is high.
Again, that is not in any way a move in ready home. It needs to be fully ripped apart and every piece of drywall needs to be replaced. That's a gigantic undertaking. Pool leaks are also expensive, especially if you have to dig to get to the leak. As an investor, I would never consider that home. Too much risk. Those homes will also have to be re-inspected that the chinese drywall is gone and no more toxic fume are produced.

[Yadkin]

Are there a lot of baby boomers who still have mortgages?

At 3.25%, I wish I had several. :Jeff '79:

[Frankie the Fink]

Yup. My first home was $70k at 11% on a combined $40k a year. We made it happen, the current generations can as well.

Mine was $28K during the Carter years and a 9% VA mortgage. ONE of my bi-weekly paychecks went for the mortgage (around $280) - we lived on the other check. Wife stayed home, baked bread, raised our kid, we ate from her garden and a LOT of $2 Kraft spaghetti meals. I had a wooden dowel to measure the heating oil in our above ground tank, lots of times we could only afford to fill it 1/2 way.

We made it and some of the best times of our life.
I don't know if youngsters today would make those adjustments.

[Frankie the Fink]

:iagree:

Some banks OK'ed short sales after the last crash in 2009, but as you point out, the homeowner is still on the hook for the difference between the cash raised from the sale and what is still owed on the home.

The only way to go unscathed in that situation, is to stay and continue making the payments on the home. A bright spot is, property taxes should decrease based on the new lower value. Of course PMI might also be demanded again, because the homeowner's equity has now vanished. Staying in the home makes the loss an unrealized loss, a paper only loss, and not any detriment to the homeowner's standard of living.....as long as the homeowner can still make the payments.

Not really, I remember when there was an article during the last crash with a headline, "Are you a chump to pay your mortgage?" And banks coined the phrase "jingle mail" when owners abandoned a property (and the mortgage) and snail-mailed the property keys back to the bank. Banks' REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory went through the roof.

On the other hand, because of regulations and the volume of defaults, banks were often years in finally foreclosing.

One person went 4 years without paying his mortgage, lived in his home, banked the money and paid cash for a condo with the savings. Another couple I know were sending their daughter to private school while living in their home for years without paying.

And property taxes in FL dropped VERY little during the crash, a neighbor and I formally protested the amounts during the crash and were basically laughed off.

The end result is that there were SO many unpaid mortgages and foreclosures during the crash that its little more than an footnote (if that) on owners' credit rating now.

I was on our subdivision HOA board at the time and had close up experience with the whole mess. It was the equivalent of becoming a squatter in your own hime.

[SurfnSun]

Cost of living has become insanely high. I spend like $1500 on groceries every month for a family of 4. It used to be like $700 just a few years ago.

I’m right there too. I also bought a house last year, so I’m one of those stupid high mortgage payment people. We waited, waited, and waited…if the crash comes my fear will have been realized, but I just couldn’t bear renting any longer.

[mrvette]

I about shit bricks when hearing of the kid next door, having a decent series of retail mgmt. jobs, managed to buy a house not so far away, and then some few years later sell it and walk away with 200 GRAND from the settlement table.....so moved back in with his folks, he has a couple kids himself, I think.....his folks are both retarred on SS now....he bought his Dad's rather new pickup, having sold another car at nice profit.....

[DDSLT5]

I'd love to see the Florida market collapse! I'M READY WITH MY STACK OF CASH!!!! :)

[GrandSportC3]

I'm not trying anything. I did a quick look and I'm not doing a deep dive.
You would change the criteria anyway if I did find a home that came close to your criteria.

Look, I've been living in this area for a long time. I know the market. Yes, there are homes that are cheaper but not in areas where people starting out in live would live because the cheaper homes are either far away from any major employers OR in the hood OR need major work.
A decent small 3 bedroom/2 bathroom house in a decent to good ZIP code that is built in the 80's or newer that does not need things like roof or AC soon will run you about $350k+. Yes, you can find homes in 55+ communities for less. Yes, you can find cheaper homes in the hood. Yes, you can find fixer uppers for less but unless someone can rehab the house themselves, they will end up paying close to $350k. Yes, there are places that work for retirees like Fort Meade, Indian Lakes Estates etc. Those are far from places that you can find employment. In my county, Lakeland/Winter Haven/Auburndale and maybe the area close to Orlando like Davenport are places that are a fairly decent distance from many employers but the rest of Polk county is not. It's a large county with lots of small towns.

[Steve_R]

In no time in history was it more difficult for first time homebuyers.

You can't honestly believe some of the absolute BS like this you post.

I know it may come as a shock to you, but Orlando doesn't represent the entire country.

[GrandSportC3]

You can't honestly believe some of the absolute BS like this you post.

I know it may come as a shock to you, but Orlando doesn't represent the entire country.
The link I posted uses nationwide data.

[Big bob]

The link I posted uses nationwide data.


He is like arguing with Yadkin. But he actually lives off distorting facts while harming others.


103329

[Steve_R]

The link I posted uses nationwide data.

The link with data from 1985 through 2020? That link? That doesn't prove your assertion that it's the worst IN HISTORY. History started before 1985 and continued past 2020.

Even if it did, so what? Owning a house isn't a right. Not everyone can, or should, own a house. If that were the case you wouldn't own rental properties. I'm not even sure what you're arguing for or against.

[LATB]

Unless the investor does their own work, that home you posted will likely cost $100k in repairs before you can re-sell it.. Sure, it might yield $400k+ if you sell it but the risk you are taking if the market starts tanking is high.
Again, that is not in any way a move in ready home. It needs to be fully ripped apart and every piece of drywall needs to be replaced. That's a gigantic undertaking. Pool leaks are also expensive, especially if you have to dig to get to the leak. As an investor, I would never consider that home. Too much risk. Those homes will also have to be re-inspected that the chinese drywall is gone and no more toxic fume are produced.

Look, I've been living in this area for a long time. I know the market. Yes, there are homes that are cheaper but not in areas where people starting out in live would live because the cheaper homes are either far away from any major employers OR in the hood OR need major work.
A decent small 3 bedroom/2 bathroom house in a decent to good ZIP code that is built in the 80's or newer that does not need things like roof or AC soon will run you about $350k+. Yes, you can find homes in 55+ communities for less. Yes, you can find cheaper homes in the hood. Yes, you can find fixer uppers for less but unless someone can rehab the house themselves, they will end up paying close to $350k. Yes, there are places that work for retirees like Fort Meade, Indian Lakes Estates etc. Those are far from places that you can find employment. In my county, Lakeland/Winter Haven/Auburndale and maybe the area close to Orlando like Davenport are places that are a fairly decent distance from many employers but the rest of Polk county is not. It's a large county with lots of small towns.
You don’t know what you don’t know.

[Onebadcad]

I'd love to see the Florida market collapse! I'M READY WITH MY STACK OF CASH!!!! :)

You have stacks, this dood has a pallet:

https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-16e5561f81cc5b59c3232884f90b8825-pjlq

[GrandSportC3]

You don’t know what you don’t know.

What I know that in a decent area, a move in ready 1400 sq ft or so 3/2/2 house will set you back about $350k.
The median HOUSEHOLD income in my town is $58k.

[LATB]

What I know that in a decent area, a move in ready 1400 sq ft or so 3/2/2 house will set you back about $350k.
The median HOUSEHOLD income in my town is $58k.

Ok. Who cares?

[Steve_R]

Ok. Who cares?

This. Not everyone can, or should, own a house. Apartments exist for a reason.

[GrandSportC3]

This. Not everyone can, or should, own a house. Apartments exist for a reason.

All I'm trying to point out, regardless if home prices are cheap or expensive, there are always winners and losers in both scenarios.
I lost most of my net worth in the 2006 - 2007 crash. I learned my lesson and invested in a way that I come out on top no matter where the market goes.

[LATB]

All I'm trying to point out, regardless if home prices are cheap or expensive, there are always winners and losers in both scenarios.
I lost most of my net worth in the 2006 - 2007 crash. I learned my lesson and invested in a way that I come out on top no matter where the market goes.

Actually your position is, hope for a market crash so you can buy (finance) another rental home. Economy be dammed.

[Steve_R]

All I'm trying to point out, regardless if home prices are cheap or expensive, there are always winners and losers in both scenarios.
I lost most of my net worth in the 2006 - 2007 crash. I learned my lesson and invested in a way that I come out on top no matter where the market goes.

Well, duh. There are winners and losers in the housing market, car market, stock market, etc. Nothing new there. If you lost most of your net worth you had a horrible investing strategy. Our net worth has gone up for the entire 47 years we've been married, sometimes slow and sometimes fast, but it's never gone down and we've certainly never lost most of it.

[Mick]

Are there a lot of baby boomers who still have mortgages?

GS doesn't let facts get in the way of his posts. But you're right, I'm the youngest of the baby boomers, and my house has been paid off for more than a decade. Only the boomers who consistently made bad financial decisions throughout their lives still need a mortgage to live in a reasonable home. Of course some lever their homes for other reasons.

GS also thinks we are going to "run out" of retiring boomers. While I guess that is technically true, I expect that to have little or no impact on the housing market. The birth rate in 1964 was slightly over 4 million, and slightly under in 1965 and after, so it's not like the rate of retirements is going to plummet when the last boomer retires.

He is also totally wrong about now being the worst time in history for first time home buyers. In late 1981, 10 year US treasury rates peaked at just over 15%. Buyers with good credit could get mortgages for 18%, many couldn't.

[ZipZap]

So, it only affects people who owe most of their mortgage and not those who actually have good equity in their home. In the end, those affected are the ones who bought at the peak of the market short time before the crash while a crash HELPS a much larger amount of people to get their first home. Each scenario has winners and losers. It's just different winners and losers. It's just like during the used car shortage. If you bought a used car in late 2021 to 2022, you probably paid twice as much as the car is worth now, 2 years later. Same thing applies when you buy a stock at the peak of the market before it crashes. There is always winners and losers regardless where the market goes. You make a conscious decision to buy something, regardless what it is. If you see car prices or housing prices rise unusually fast, MAYBE it's not a good time to buy at that time. Maybe it's heading into a crash? Every major purchase comes with a risk.

Please cite sources for your claims. Or are you just guessing about numbers of winners/losers? Market has been hot for a few years, so there are MANY people that don't currently sit at 60% equity in the case of a 40% crash. All those people paying cash, other than the ballers, sold to someone to get cash.

[ZipZap]

Not really, I remember when there was an article during the last crash with a headline, "Are you a chump to pay your mortgage?" And banks coined the phrase "jingle mail" when owners abandoned a property (and the mortgage) and snail-mailed the property keys back to the bank. Banks' REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory went through the roof.

On the other hand, because of regulations and the volume of defaults, banks were often years in finally foreclosing.

One person went 4 years without paying his mortgage, lived in his home, banked the money and paid cash for a condo with the savings. Another couple I know were sending their daughter to private school while living in their home for years without paying.

And property taxes in FL dropped VERY little during the crash, a neighbor and I formally protested the amounts during the crash and were basically laughed off.

The end result is that there were SO many unpaid mortgages and foreclosures during the crash that its little more than an footnote (if that) on owners' credit rating now.

I was on our subdivision HOA board at the time and had close up experience with the whole mess. It was the equivalent of becoming a squatter in your own hime.

Biggest change came when the Fed's started really enforcing owners' take the difference between their note, penalties and taxes and the bank sale price as straight up income. It was a blip on the radar in a normal environment, but it hasn't been normal since the late 70's and they will get their taxes.

[dvarapala]

Are there a lot of baby boomers who still have mortgages?

:kimblair:

I would have paid it off by now but I refinanced.

[GrandSportC3]

Actually your position is, hope for a market crash so you can buy (finance) another rental home. Economy be dammed.

I'm more hoping to buy cash. Crash is not going to happen overnight. If it happens, rock bottom may be 4 years from my which may be the time that I'll have plenty of cash to spend.

[GrandSportC3]

Please cite sources for your claims. Or are you just guessing about numbers of winners/losers? Market has been hot for a few years, so there are MANY people that don't currently sit at 60% equity in the case of a 40% crash. All those people paying cash, other than the ballers, sold to someone to get cash.

It's common sense. The only ones that really lose money are those who have to move and don't have equity in their home. Those are the only losers. If you bought a home and you are not moving, your payment won't go up because the market crashed. If you are not planning on selling, here is ZERO impact to you.
Those with equity can sell for the lower price and then buy a replacement house for a lower price. Those who won't sell their house can enjoy lower property taxes if the values crash as ad valorem taxes go down if property value goes down.

[Onebadcad]

What I know that in a decent area, a move in ready 1400 sq ft or so 3/2/2 house will set you back about $350k.
The median HOUSEHOLD income in my town is $58k.

Lower population areas and areas with consistently lower cost housing will probably take hits long before the areas of SE, SW, Tampa and Orlando.

Down here, SE FL, it is still $300+/living sqft for homes under $1M, maybe $1.2M, as the buyers are not greatly affected by rates or the shit economy.

Many pay cash, as have sold their home in NE and have bags of cash.

Unless you are willing to spend $450+K down here, you are relegated to townhomes and condos, or you many find an SFR in a neighborhood that requires bars on the windows and a gun turret on the roof.

The crash of 2008+ was due to many low-end borrowers with crap credit getting approved for housing payments beyond their means, and also due to many with no money down walking from underwater homes. The same losers were refinancing every 12 months, they viewed their homes are piggy banks.

Mostly, mortages in the past 10+ years have only been made to those with good credit, and with income that was verified fully.
There have been alternative credit program the past five years, but these borrowers have good credit, do not have verifiable income, but usually have more than enough liquid reserves to make the next five years of mortgage payments--many put down 25%, or more, and will not walk away from their investment.

None of this matters anyway, as if fjb gets a second term, which he will, you and I will be living in tents while squatters shit all over the inside of our homes.

[LATB]

I'm more hoping to buy cash. Crash is not going to happen overnight. If it happens, rock bottom may be 4 years from my which may be the time that I'll have plenty of cash to spend.

There is no way to predict what the real estate market will be like in 4 years.

[Steve_R]

There is no way to predict what the real estate market will be like in 4 years.

GSC3 and YouTube experts can. :yesnod:

[Onebadcad]

There is no way to predict what the real estate market will be like in 4 years.

I can, the overall market factors will go up and down, supply will go up and down, demand will go up and down, prices will go up and down, number of listings will go up and down.

AND WITH ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY, property taxes will go up every year, HO INS will go up every year, association fees will go up every year.

[SurfnSun]

It's common sense. The only ones that really lose money are those who have to move and don't have equity in their home. Those are the only losers. If you bought a home and you are not moving, your payment won't go up because the market crashed. If you are not planning on selling, here is ZERO impact to you.
Those with equity can sell for the lower price and then buy a replacement house for a lower price. Those who won't sell their house can enjoy lower property taxes if the values crash as ad valorem taxes go down if property value goes down.

If it crashes, hopefully Trump will lower the interest rates so I can refi :D

[dvarapala]

There is no way to predict what the real estate market will be like in 4 years.

I predict in 4 years there will be houses for sale.

Care to wager on my prediction? :waiting:

[LATB]

As I have always said...
The best time to buy real estate is when you find a property that you like/want/need and you can afford to make the purchase.
You want to wait until market conditions change, good luck with that.

Cracks me up that people will buy a 100 thousand dollar car that's worth half that in 3 years. But God forbid market conditions change and Zillow tells you your house is worth less than you paid for it. :funniest:

[GrandSportC3]

As I have always said...
The best time to buy real estate is when you find a property that you like/want/need and you can afford to make the purchase.
You want to wait until market conditions change, good luck with that.

Cracks me up that people will buy a 100 thousand dollar car that's worth half that in 3 years. But God forbid market conditions change and Zillow tells you your house is worth less than you paid for it. :funniest:
A car that you use as daily driver is never an appreciating asset. I didn't buy it as an investment, Most people who buy a new expensive car understand that in the first 3 years, you will lose most of the car's value.
We bought my wife's i3 used with 23k miles for under $17k. New price was over $45k.

[vettemed]

As I have always said...
The best time to buy real estate is when you find a property that you like/want/need and you can afford to make the purchase.
You want to wait until market conditions change, good luck with that.

Cracks me up that people will buy a 100 thousand dollar car that's worth half that in 3 years. But God forbid market conditions change and Zillow tells you your house is worth less than you paid for it. :funniest:

Decided your commission post was in bad taste?

[LATB]

Decided your commission post was in bad taste?

No I decided to not GAF anymore about this.

[vettemed]

As I have always said...
The best time to buy real estate is when you find a property that you like/want/need and you can afford to make the purchase.
You want to wait until market conditions change, good luck with that.

Cracks me up that people will buy a 100 thousand dollar car that's worth half that in 3 years. But God forbid market conditions change and Zillow tells you your house is worth less than you paid for it. :funniest:

No I decided to not GAF anymore about this.

valid. Entire thread was based on clickbait anyway.

[ZipZap]

It's common sense. The only ones that really lose money are those who have to move and don't have equity in their home. Those are the only losers. If you bought a home and you are not moving, your payment won't go up because the market crashed. If you are not planning on selling, here is ZERO impact to you.
Those with equity can sell for the lower price and then buy a replacement house for a lower price. Those who won't sell their house can enjoy lower property taxes if the values crash as ad valorem taxes go down if property value goes down.

Do you even have an inner voice? Shitting on others with your good fortune is not commendable.

What about those who can't sell for the note? You just still skip over this.:rofl:, which what what I would consider including, a large population of speculators. Having these asshats mixed in with real homeowners will screw things up for sure. Your gain. Whatever.

[donuts]

In no time in history was it more difficult for first time homebuyers.

Total BS. It’s only hard for them because most aren’t gainfully employed or even trying. It’s only difficult because they’re lazy.

[Frankie the Fink]

Biggest change came when the Fed's started really enforcing owners' take the difference between their note, penalties and taxes and the bank sale price as straight up income. It was a blip on the radar in a normal environment, but it hasn't been normal since the late 70's and they will get their taxes.

That makes no sense...if the bank sells the house in a default case IF there is any profit that would go to the bank I would think, if not it would be capital gains not income.

[ZipZap]

That makes no sense...if the bank sells the house in a default case IF there is any profit that would go to the bank I would think, if not it would be capital gains not income.

Note = 100k
Bank Sale = 50k

You now have 50k income from the loss to the bank.

It's the loss of the lending company that becomes the income of the defaulter, subject to income tax. Like I said, only in the last dip did I see the Fed step in and figure out how they could get their cut. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

[SurfnSun]

Total BS. It’s only hard for them because most aren’t gainfully employed or even trying. It’s only difficult because they’re lazy.

Houses in some central FL counties saw price per sqft double to triple in less than a year, then interest went from 2.5 to 6.5%. In localized terms, he’s probably right…nationally? I can’t speak to that.

[zsr22]

Houses in some central FL counties saw price per sqft double to triple in less than a year, then interest went from 2.5 to 6.5%. In localized terms, he’s probably right…nationally? I can’t speak to that.


I feel awful for all of those unmotivated people who will never be able to afford a house now because they thought earning minimum wage at an entry-level job was a solid career choice while raising a family.

Just awful, I tell ya!

[GrandSportC3]

Total BS. It’s only hard for them because most aren’t gainfully employed or even trying. It’s only difficult because they’re lazy.

My statement is 100% correct. While in the 1950's, the ratio between income and housing prices was bad, it was not as bad as it is right now. The highest housing prices vs. income prior to current day was 6.52 : 1 just before 1950.
Right now, it is 7.68 : 1.

This link has all the numbers. By the late 1960's, it was 3.60 : 1.

This is NATIONWIDE data for about 80 years, not just Florida.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

[Raazor]

Has the crash happened yet?

:waiting:

[Raazor]

Huh... crash imminent? Somebody better tell Florida.

Maybe not as hot as it was during the VaxxHumping years, but still really good and actually improving, not getting worse.

Supply & Demand homies & homettes... Supply and Demand!

[Steve_R]

Has the crash happened yet?

:waiting:

Only GSC3 and YouTube "experts" know when it will happen, and they're not telling us so they can plan ahead to profit from others' woes.

[SurfnSun]

I feel awful for all of those unmotivated people who will never be able to afford a house now because they thought earning minimum wage at an entry-level job was a solid career choice while raising a family.

Just awful, I tell ya!

If you think it's only minimum wage people that can't afford a house, Id say you are mistaken.

My guess is a family of 4 not earning at least $100k won't be able to afford a house in a safe neighborhood here.

Here's a shot from Good Day Tampa Bay

[Steve_R]

What, exactly does "live comfortably" mean? Whatever it means, I don't believe it requires $209k for a couple with two kids to "live comfortably."

[SurfnSun]

What, exactly does "live comfortably" mean? Whatever it means, I don't believe it requires $209k for a couple with two kids to "live comfortably."

I think it means owning a house and being able to pay your bills.

Most can't put down 20% on a house anymore so when you look at the price of housing, first time buyer programs rarely help. So 3-5% gets you a high mortgage with PMI.

I don't make the news, I just report it :D

[GrandSportC3]

Only GSC3 and YouTube "experts" know when it will happen, and they're not telling us so they can plan ahead to profit from others' woes.

My thread has a question mark. I don't know if it will crash.

[DDSLT5]

My thread has a question mark. I don't know if it will crash.

Anything is possible. Kinda wishing DeSantis won the primary about now. :leaving:

[LATB]

My thread has a question mark. I don't know if it will crash.

But you are hoping for a crash so you can buy another rental property. Economy and others source of income be dammed.

[Big bob]

Damn jumping on a guy because he is looking for a good real estate deal. I looked at Florida years ago and rejected it for a place to buy. It looks like a price drop might be coming from the experts. North Winds blowing.

103426

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers of tropical activity

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season#:~:text=NOAA%20is%20forecasting%20a%20range,70%25%20confidence%20in%20these%20ranges.

[ptindall]

If you think it's only minimum wage people that can't afford a house, Id say you are mistaken.

My guess is a family of 4 not earning at least $100k won't be able to afford a house in a safe neighborhood here.

Here's a shot from Good Day Tampa Bay

So live uncomfortably, make more money, or move somewhere cheaper. I'm not seeing the problem. There are lots of places too rich for me. So what?

[GrandSportC3]

But you are hoping for a crash so you can buy another rental property. Economy and others source of income be dammed.

Very soon, rental income will be my only income until I'll turn 62 when I'll start pulling social security. While I'm good with my current income, if there was a chance to pick up one more rental house or even trailer, it would be even better.. If it doesn't happen, I don't mind either as if I ever decide to offload one of my houses, I can get more money for it. Not planning on doing that at the moment but who knows.

[Onebadcad]

Here some mortgage math for someone in FLORIDA outside SE FL, as down here you cannot get a SFR in a safe neighborhood for under $400K.

$400K with FHA 3.50% down, FHA Upfront MI Fee of 1.75%
$393K financed at 6.750%, 30-year fixed, no points, no discount fees
$2,549 P&I
$400 taxes
$300 HO INS
$177 FHA-required monthly mortgage insurance
Assuming no HOA Fees, assuming not in a Flood Zone

TOTAL ESTIMATED PAYMENT = $3,426

If a couple makes $125K joint/year this is 33% of their gross income.
Assuming 20% taxes and 7% SSA, they only net $7,600 , thus 45% of their net.

I would recommend for all first-time homebuyers, with or looking to have two or three children, not to have a mortgage payment greater than 30% of your net income.

SO, referencing S&S post 128, $200K joint puts you at $12,100 net/month, assume $4,200/month on $500K home in HOA community, puts them at 35%, which I guess is doable knowing their disposable income is $7,900/month.

Yeah, many cannot afford to buy, or even rent, unless they are $150+K/year.

[Onebadcad]

Very soon, rental income will be my only income until I'll turn 62 when I'll start pulling social security. While I'm good with my current income, if there was a chance to pick up one more rental house or even trailer, it would be even better.. If it doesn't happen, I don't mind either as if I ever decide to offload one of my houses, I can get more money for it. Not planning on doing that at the moment but who knows.

I would never buy a trailer, as a primary, vacation or investment.
They depreciate quicker than used toilet paper, and the types of people looking to rent them will run multiple meth labs.
You can thank me later,,,

[GrandSportC3]

I would never buy a trailer, as a primary, vacation or investment.
They depreciate quicker than used toilet paper, and the types of people looking to rent them will run multiple meth labs.
You can thank me later,,,

Trailers give you a good ROI as rentals but come with higher risk and often less reliable tenants. I prefer SFR's

Same goes for duplex and triplex. Tenants in those tend to be in a lower income demographic and less reliable.

[SurfnSun]

So live uncomfortably, make more money, or move somewhere cheaper. I'm not seeing the problem. There are lots places too rich for me. So what?

You missed the point but carry on…

[Onebadcad]

Trailers give you a good ROI as rentals but come with higher risk and often less reliable tenants. I prefer SFR's

Same goes for duplex and triplex. Tenants in those tend to be in a lower income demographic and less reliable.

The problem with a SFR Investment Strategy in FLORIDA is that it is very difficult to have a decent net each month with the increasing taxes and insurance.

I did a purchase mortgage for a dood who sold three investment SFRs in FLORIDA metro area, he owned each for average of five years, make shrewd purchases, saw good appreciation, but wanted something bigger AND easier.

His realtor found him 21 units, townhomes, 2 buidlings, nice amenties, newfy refurbed, he paid $100K/per, did the deal for $2.1M.

He put down 25%, as is the general rule for 5+ units, all came from the three SFR sales.
He did not need the positive rent each month, so paid down note, he was free-and-clear in 10 years while paying management company 5%, as he was hands-off.

At end of 10 years, his $2.1M was now worth $3.5M, he could sell, or get $35K/month with only taxes, insurance, maintenance and 5% owed.

Think big, I call it the whale, as even if your personal investments do not go as planned, you will have a piece of real estate that will cover 100% of your retirement needs.

CAUTION, this does not work well in high-priced FLORIDA metro areas, but areas like Daytona, NPR, I-4 east of Orlando, etc...

[GrandSportC3]

The problem with a SFR Investment Strategy in FLORIDA is that it is very difficult to have a decent net each month with the increasing taxes and insurance.

I did a purchase mortgage for a dood who sold three investment SFRs in FLORIDA metro area, he owned each for average of five years, make shrewd purchases, saw good appreciation, but wanted something bigger AND easier.

His realtor found him 21 units, townhomes, 2 buidlings, nice amenties, newfy refurbed, he paid $100K/per, did the deal for $2.1M.

He put down 25%, as is the general rule for 5+ units, all came from the three SFR sales.
He did not need the positive rent each month, so paid down note, he was free-and-clear in 10 years while paying management company 5%, as he was hands-off.

At end of 10 years, his $2.1M was now worth $3.5M, he could sell, or get $35K/month with only taxes, insurance, maintenance and 5% owed.

Think big, I call it the whale, as even if your personal investments do not go as planned, you will have a piece of real estate that will cover 100% of your retirement needs.

CAUTION, this does not work well in high-priced FLORIDA metro areas, but areas like Daytona, NPR, I-4 east of Orlando, etc...
All my rentals are inland, far from the coast where storms cause most damage, so I do NOT have property insurance as it would significantly hurt my profit. Property taxes are going up BUT we have a 10% cap on increases except for schools. So, property taxes, while going up, are not as bad as it could be if we wouldn't have that 10% cap on increases.
The average property tax per rental property is about $2000. This means that it reduces my profit by about 12%. Most years, around 85% of my rental income is profit.

[Onebadcad]

All my rentals are inland, far from the coast where storms cause most damage, so I do NOT have property insurance as it would significantly hurt my profit. Property taxes are going up BUT we have a 10% cap on increases except for schools. So, property taxes, while going up, are not as bad as it could be if we wouldn't have that 10% cap on increases.
The average property tax per rental property is about $2000. This means that it reduces my profit by about 12%. Most years, around 85% of my rental income is profit.

I would never recommend anyone not have dwelling coverage, it may be costly, but scary to not have, you can always lower premium with largest allowable deductible--this is not an option with a mortgaged property, as lender requires coverage and also has limit on how high deductible can be.

Please tell us you have liabilty coverage on homes for which you do not have dwelling, as renters will sue you for all you have, and then some.

Lastly, **** SCHOOL BOARDS, they are raping homeowners.
All request the highest maximum millage increase EVERY YEAR, AND then try to get an exception over the max millage increase.
AND, TO ADD TO IT, some, as in my county, are trying to get the county commission to approve a line-item non-ad valorem tax that you pay every year IN ADDITION to their Ad Valorem Tax Bill.

I could give my school board $999.999.999.999.999.999 every week and they would still be broke at year's end.

[LATB]

All my rentals are inland, far from the coast where storms cause most damage, so I do NOT have property insurance as it would significantly hurt my profit. Property taxes are going up BUT we have a 10% cap on increases except for schools. So, property taxes, while going up, are not as bad as it could be if we wouldn't have that 10% cap on increases.
The average property tax per rental property is about $2000. This means that it reduces my profit by about 12%. Most years, around 85% of my rental income is profit.

I’ve been here 30+ years and have seen significant damage far inland from the coast.

You don’t have insurance on your property? I thought you had a mortgage?

[Newby]

Here some mortgage math for someone in FLORIDA outside SE FL, as down here you cannot get a SFR in a safe neighborhood for under $400K


In South Florida (aka Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties), A livable residence in the hood is $300k plus.
Illegal converted single car garages turned efficiencies are renting for $900/mo and up.
Supposedly toughest RE market in the country.

Area is loaded with younger college grads, hospitality and most service people who are stumped.
Ownership, pretty much out of reach

[GrandSportC3]

I would never recommend anyone not have dwelling coverage, it may be costly, but scary to not have, you can always lower premium with largest allowable deductible--this is not an option with a mortgaged property, as lender requires coverage and also has limit on how high deductible can be.

Please tell us you have liabilty coverage on homes for which you do not have dwelling, as renters will sue you for all you have, and then some.

Lastly, **** SCHOOL BOARDS, they are raping homeowners.
All request the highest maximum millage increase EVERY YEAR, AND then try to get an exception over the max millage increase.
AND, TO ADD TO IT, some, as in my county, are trying to get the county commission to approve a line-item non-ad valorem tax that you pay every year IN ADDITION to their Ad Valorem Tax Bill.

I could give my school board $999.999.999.999.999.999 every week and they would still be broke at year's end.

I have an umbrella policy from work that covers my personal rentals and I have a liability insurance for the LLC. $700 per year for 3 homes in the LLC

[Onebadcad]

In South Florida (aka Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties), A livable residence in the hood is $300k plus.
Illegal converted single car garages turned efficiencies are renting for $900/mo and up.
Supposedly toughest RE market in the country.

Area is loaded with younger college grads, hospitality and most service people who are stumped.
Ownership, pretty much out of reach

I do not see many down here who are young and single that can afford an SFR.
Opting for a condo or townhome in an association is risky, as all are broke, their insurance has gone up 50% in the past three years, and special assessments are every two years.

A HUGE problem is many associations have opted, or are considering, lowering the insurance premiums by taking policies with a cash-value replacement, as opposed to guaranteed replacement costs.
The cash-value premium is cheaper due claims are paid out based on remaining economic life, specifically for roofs.
HUGE PROBLEM, as neither Fannie or Freddie is willing to allow this for buyers into the association, as they recognize the onus placed on unit owners if such a claim is filed--the unit owners, via an assessment, have to make up the differential.

In FLORIDA this will soon be offered for SFR coverage, again, a problem, as if home is mortgaged, it will be in violation of the mortgage clause, which states sufficient insurance must always be maintained, and cash-value is currently not deemed sufficient.

[GrandSportC3]

I’ve been here 30+ years and have seen significant damage far inland from the coast.

You don’t have insurance on your property? I thought you had a mortgage?
I only owe money on my primary residence which has insurance. Mortgage and HELOC are on my primary residence. My rentals are 100% free and clear.
Yes, damage can happen Inland but most damage is caused by falling trees. Cut down all trees that could fall on the houses. Chances are very slim to sustain major damage.
I owe less than $100k total on my primary residence and $0 on the rentals.

[Onebadcad]

I have an umbrella policy from work that covers my personal rentals and I have a liability insurance for the LLC. $700 per year for 3 homes in the LLC

Nice price, I pay more than $700 for each car for only six months.
Good for you:seasix:!!

[donuts]

If you think it's only minimum wage people that can't afford a house, Id say you are mistaken.

My guess is a family of 4 not earning at least $100k won't be able to afford a house in a safe neighborhood here.

Here's a shot from Good Day Tampa Bay

This is unreality at its best, hell , it’s downright delusional..

“If I don’t make at least $100k a year I’m unable to have a decent life”

[LATB]

I only owe money on my primary residence which has insurance. Mortgage and HELOC are on my primary residence. My rentals are 100% free and clear.
Yes, damage can happen Inland but most damage is caused by falling trees. Cut down all trees that could fall on the houses. Chances are very slim to sustain major damage.
I owe less than $100k total on my primary residence and $0 on the rentals.

10’s of thousands of trees down 40-50 miles north of Panama City from hurricane Michael.

[donuts]

If there’s any act that any governing body can do to help the situation it’s to remove the ability for REIT’s and other big corporate bodies from buying up single family homes. You can’t keep investors out of apartments and such because it takes such high levels of capital to sustain, but what has happened in the last 5 years or so is investment houses buying up home’s across the country and that’s dried up inventories.

Otherwise folk have to move where they can afford to live just like they’ve always done. I’m tired of hearing people crying that they can’t afford to live in California .. or Florida for that matter.

[GrandSportC3]

10’s of thousands of trees down 40-50 miles north of Panama City from hurricane Michael.

Same happened here during a few storms. That's why I cut all trees that could fall on the houses.

[markids77]

I only owe money on my primary residence which has insurance. Mortgage and HELOC are on my primary residence. My rentals are 100% free and clear.
Yes, damage can happen Inland but most damage is caused by falling trees. Cut down all trees that could fall on the houses. Chances are very slim to sustain major damage.
I owe less than $100k total on my primary residence and $0 on the rentals.

My MIL lives close to Naples airport and refuses to get flood insurance. Both of you are ignorant, or deliberately stupid.

[GrandSportC3]

My MIL lives close to Naples airport and refuses to get flood insurance. Both of you are ignorant, or deliberately stupid.

If the odds are in favor of the homeowners, how do insurance companies make money?

[GixxerBill RIP]

If there’s any act that any governing body can do to help the situation it’s to remove the ability for REIT’s and other big corporate bodies from buying up single family homes. You can’t keep investors out of apartments and such because it takes such high levels of capital to sustain, but what has happened in the last 5 years or so is investment houses buying up home’s across the country and that’s dried up inventories.

Otherwise folk have to move where they can afford to live just like they’ve always done. I’m tired of hearing people crying that they can’t afford to live in California .. or Florida for that matter.

Government getting involved in anything only results in things getting more ****ed up than before.

REIT's are a great way for anyone to invest in real estate holdings and get a dividend payment every month without the hassle of dealing with low life renter trash. By law they must return a minimum of 90% of taxable income in the form of shareholder dividends each year

[Steve_R]

If the odds are in favor of the homeowners, how do insurance companies make money?

.

[Raazor]

If the odds are in favor of the homeowners, how do insurance companies make money?

I thought you were smart. My bad. :shrug:

[ptindall]

You missed the point but carry on…

When I posted, "so what?" that means I am asking you to state your point.

[ptindall]

I think it means owning a house and being able to pay your bills.


Your pictures says the national average to, "live comfortably" is $93,933/year. That means living comfortably is a whole lot more comfortable than just basic living expenses. It may be just paying your bills, if your bills include a whole bunch on non essential luxuries.

[zsr22]

Your pictures says the national average to, "live comfortably" is $93,933/year. That means living comfortably is a whole lot more comfortable than just basic living expenses. It may be just paying your bills, if your bills include a whole bunch on non essential luxuries.

:yesnod:


Living comfortably means a late model vehicle, iPhone, Starbucks every morning and money left over at the end of the month.

[GrandSportC3]

I thought you were smart. My bad. :shrug:

Let's do some math. Insurance is more $ on tenant occupied properties

Here is how much money I saved since becoming a LANDLORD IN 2010:
Right now, average per house would be $2000 per year but lowered it to $1500 to average it out as it was cheaper before.

2010 1 RENTAL $1500
2011 1 RENTAL $1500
2012 2 RENTALS $3000
2013 2 RENTALS $3000
2014 3 RENTALS $4500
2015 3 RENTALS $4500
2016 2 RENTALS (SOLD ONE) $3000
2017 2 RENtTALS $3000
2018 2 RENTALS $3000
2019 5 RENTALS $9000
2020 5 RENTALS $9000
2021 5 RENTALS $9000
2022 5 RENTALS $9000
2023 5 RENTALS $9000
2024 5 RENTALS $9000

total saved $78000

in order for me to come out on top with an insurance claim would be a $79k claim..
With that saving I can buy a new roof on all my properties with a lot left over.

[Frankie the Fink]

Note = 100k
Bank Sale = 50k

You now have 50k income from the loss to the bank.

It's the loss of the lending company that becomes the income of the defaulter, subject to income tax. Like I said, only in the last dip did I see the Fed step in and figure out how they could get their cut. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

That is a huge over-simplification and yes there can be tax consequences but it varies wildly depending on the specific situation, involving recourse vs non-recourse debt, Fair Market Value, the type of action the lender takes and a lot of other factors. But yes, apparently, if all the planets align your statement is correct.

[BRUIZER]

How damn expensive IS property ins in FL?

We just renewed two rental policies for sfr's with State Farms. One is basically a newer tract home and the other is located in a rural mountainous county.
Both policies w SF combined are aprox $1800 annually and one is built in 2018 after fire destroyed it previously in 2015 from failed electrical transformer aprox five miles down below, prior to our acquisition.
For $75/mo ea if my CAP was that low and couldn't pass the cost to tenants, I'd pay the premiums out of pocket honestly. NFW would I self insure. Risk with tenants is waaaaay to high...in fact rental ins is a requirement stipulated in the lease. YMMV

[GrandSportC3]

How damn expensive IS property ins in FL?

We just renewed two rental policies for sfr's with State Farms. One is basically a newer tract home and the other is located in a rural mountainous county.
Both policies w SF combined are aprox $1800 annually and one is built in 2018 after fire destroyed it previously in 2015 from failed electrical transformer aprox five miles down below, prior to our acquisition.
For $75/mo ea if my CAP was that low and couldn't pass the cost to tenants, I'd pay the premiums out of pocket honestly. NFW would I self insure. Risk with tenants is waaaaay to high...in fact rental ins is a requirement stipulated in the lease. YMMV
Florida has by far the highest rates in the country.
Mostly because of lawsuits against insurance companies and roof replacement insurance fraud.

[LATB]

Let's do some math. Insurance is more $ on tenant occupied properties

Here is how much money I saved since becoming a LANDLORD IN 2010:
Right now, average per house would be $2000 per year but lowered it to $1500 to average it out as it was cheaper before.

2010 1 RENTAL $1500
2011 1 RENTAL $1500
2012 2 RENTALS $3000
2013 2 RENTALS $3000
2014 3 RENTALS $4500
2015 3 RENTALS $4500
2016 2 RENTALS (SOLD ONE) $3000
2017 2 RENtTALS $3000
2018 2 RENTALS $3000
2019 5 RENTALS $9000
2020 5 RENTALS $9000
2021 5 RENTALS $9000
2022 5 RENTALS $9000
2023 5 RENTALS $9000
2024 5 RENTALS $9000

total saved $78000

in order for me to come out on top with an insurance claim would be a $79k claim..
With that saving I can buy a new roof on all my properties with a lot left over.
I don’t think that you can have a roofing contractor install new roofing on 5 homes for 78/79 thousand dollars.

[GTOguy]

Florida has by far the highest rates in the country.
Mostly because of lawsuits against insurance companies and roof replacement insurance fraud.
Really? What are they? I have friends in CA paying about 7k per year. Your rates are higher?:waiting:

[vettemed]

I don’t think that you can have a roofing contractor install new roofing on 5 homes for 78/79 thousand dollars.

I had 2 shingle roofs done last year for a combined total of 27K.

[mrvette]

I don’t think that you can have a roofing contractor install new roofing on 5 homes for 78/79 thousand dollars.

Hell, about 3.5 years ago, I paid TEN GRAND for a complete new roof on my house/garage part of it, I'm guessing at about 2300' of roof, single story and house is 1500' plus an addition that was not included.....heavy shingles....
light gray.....they had to replace about 2/3 of the plywood underlayment.....

:confused5::seasix:

[GrandSportC3]

I don’t think that you can have a roofing contractor install new roofing on 5 homes for 78/79 thousand dollars.

Did a roof on a 1200 sq ft home in 2022 for under $8k. 1 home is 1000 sq ft, another one about 750 sq ft and another one 1350 sq ft (400 sq ft addition has flat roof) and another one has 1650 sq ft.

2 of 5 rental homes have newer roofs (2019 and 2022). 750 sq ft home has 12 year old roof and one has a roof from 2007 and the oldest roof was done in 2003..

[GrandSportC3]

Really? What are they? I have friends in CA paying about 7k per year. Your rates are higher?:waiting:
home values are higher in California. If we go by the values of the homes, Florida is higher.
A $1M home will have a higher premium in Florida compared to a $1M home in CA

[GrandSportC3]

Another advantage of not having insurance is that the insurance can't blackmail you into changing your roof. Many people in FL are forced to replace their roof even if it's perfectly fine because of the age of the roof. Insurances threaten to not cover the homeowner if they don't replace their roof.

[LATB]

Did a roof on a 1200 sq ft home in 2022 for under $8k. 1 home is 1000 sq ft, another one about 750 sq ft and another one 1350 sq ft (400 sq ft addition has flat roof) and another one has 1650 sq ft.

2 of 5 rental homes have newer roofs (2019 and 2022). 750 sq ft home has 12 year old roof and one has a roof from 2007 and the oldest roof was done in 2003..

Roofing is priced by "the square" (each square is 100 sq ft) of the roof surface, not the sq footage of the home.

[LATB]

home values are higher in California. If we go by the values of the homes, Florida is higher.
A $1M home will have a higher premium in Florida compared to a $1M home in CA

Not necessarily.

[LATB]

Another advantage of not having insurance is that the insurance can't blackmail you into changing your roof. Many people in FL are forced to replace their roof even if it's perfectly fine because of the age of the roof. Insurances threaten to not cover the homeowner if they don't replace their roof.

It is not blackmail. It is a requirement that the roof be under 15 years old. There are options to have it inspected and some insurance companies will consider the inspection report to insure a home with a 15+ year roof.

[LATB]

Hell, about 3.5 years ago, I paid TEN GRAND for a complete new roof on my house/garage part of it, I'm guessing at about 2300' of roof, single story and house is 1500' plus an addition that was not included.....heavy shingles....
light gray.....they had to replace about 2/3 of the plywood underlayment.....

:confused5::seasix:

Less the plywood you were at about $400 per square. And it would be more today.

[LATB]

I had 2 shingle roofs done last year for a combined total of 27K.

Must be small homes?

[LATB]

My new home is right at 70 squares of roofing.
The quote for the roof including flashings and eave/rake metal and plumbing boots, is $24,500. Right at $350 per square.
GAF timberline HDZ and all 26 gauge painted steel flashing and eave/rake metal.

[vettemed]

[QUOTE=LATB;2271650]Must be small homes?[/QUOTE

1400sf+garage in Merritt Island
2-story 3800sf in Orlando

[LATB]

[QUOTE=LATB;2271650]Must be small homes?[/QUOTE

1400sf+garage in Merritt Island
2-story 3800sf in Orlando

How many squares of roofing?

[LATB]

1400sf+garage in Merritt Island
2-story 3800sf in Orlando

How many squares of roofing?

[vettemed]

How many squares of roofing?

not sure. the Orlando quotes measured between 32-35 sq, but none of my quotes for the Merritt Is. property had the sq noted on the quotes.

[mrvette]

Less the plywood you were at about $400 per square. And it would be more today.

Well, the guy was nice in that the estimate ran about 8 grand, and so when pulling that 20 y/o roof off even the 'undamaged' parts were rotten plywood, and the removal of the roof was preceded by a rainstorm that damaged ceiling in 3 separate rooms, but I took care of that myself.....it was about 15 sheets of plywood and so he charged me another two grand.....which was VERY CHEAP considering all the extra BS to go through.....

thing that gets ME is I see today some roofers that advertise new shingles made of something different than that damn tarpaper crap.....

and the price for material is about 1/2 what I paid for old tarpaper crap....

have you actually seen/handled any of the new shingle material??

[LATB]

Well, the guy was nice in that the estimate ran about 8 grand, and so when pulling that 20 y/o roof off even the 'undamaged' parts were rotten plywood, and the removal of the roof was preceded by a rainstorm that damaged ceiling in 3 separate rooms, but I took care of that myself.....it was about 15 sheets of plywood and so he charged me another two grand.....which was VERY CHEAP considering all the extra BS to go through.....

thing that gets ME is I see today some roofers that advertise new shingles made of something different than that damn tarpaper crap.....

and the price for material is about 1/2 what I paid for old tarpaper crap....

have you actually seen/handled any of the new shingle material??

There is a synthetic roofing underlayment that many now use in lieu of felt (tar paper). I use peel & stick to cover the entire roof as underlayment.

[mrvette]

There is a synthetic roofing underlayment that many now use in lieu of felt (tar paper). I use peel & stick to cover the entire roof as underlayment.

But I see ads for some kind of what looks like maybe plastic of some sort, in all sorts of colors, and then again the only color I would want is bleach WHITE so my house HVAC bills would be about 30% of what I run now....

:dance:

[vettemed]

But I see ads for some kind of what looks like maybe plastic of some sort, in all sorts of colors, and then again the only color I would want is bleach WHITE so my house HVAC bills would be about 30% of what I run now....

:dance:

I think you're probably looking at metal roofing. I'm not aware of any plastic roofing materials.

[LATB]

I think you're probably looking at metal roofing. I'm not aware of any plastic roofing materials.

I believe Gene is referring to the underlayment.

[Steve_R]

I believe Gene is referring to the underlayment.

If so, what does the color matter? :shrug:

[Big bob]

I believe Gene is referring to the underlayment.

Still having a little trouble there?:sadangel:

[LATB]

If so, what does the color matter? :shrug:

It doesn’t.

[markids77]

My new home is right at 70 squares of roofing.
The quote for the roof including flashings and eave/rake metal and plumbing boots, is $24,500. Right at $350 per square.
GAF timberline HDZ and all 26 gauge painted steel flashing and eave/rake metal.

And woven valleys I bet.

[markids77]

Let's do some math. Insurance is more $ on tenant occupied properties

Here is how much money I saved since becoming a LANDLORD IN 2010:
Right now, average per house would be $2000 per year but lowered it to $1500 to average it out as it was cheaper before.

2010 1 RENTAL $1500
2011 1 RENTAL $1500
2012 2 RENTALS $3000
2013 2 RENTALS $3000
2014 3 RENTALS $4500
2015 3 RENTALS $4500
2016 2 RENTALS (SOLD ONE) $3000
2017 2 RENtTALS $3000
2018 2 RENTALS $3000
2019 5 RENTALS $9000
2020 5 RENTALS $9000
2021 5 RENTALS $9000
2022 5 RENTALS $9000
2023 5 RENTALS $9000
2024 5 RENTALS $9000

total saved $78000

in order for me to come out on top with an insurance claim would be a $79k claim..
With that saving I can buy a new roof on all my properties with a lot left over.

Let's say for the sake of argument the smallest one is valued at $250k. What savings are evident for you if the SOB burns down?

[zsr22]

Let's say for the sake of argument the smallest one is valued at $250k. What savings are evident for you if the SOB burns down?


Fire should be a concern. Especially with GSC3 doing his own home repairs.



:funnier:

[mrvette]

I believe Gene is referring to the underlayment.

I called the shingle material 'tar' paper.....mistake.....I know the typical underlayment is tar paper......not that I understand the reason for it's use....once the water gets past the shingles, that 'tar paper' is full of holes and accidental tears from the install.....

BUT the stuff I see on occasional TV and computer adds seems to be much better and made of what looks like a plastic of some sort, they advertise all sorts of very bright colors WITCH makes me think of my ideal 'WHITE'....

[LATB]

I called the shingle material 'tar' paper.....mistake.....I know the typical underlayment is tar paper......not that I understand the reason for it's use....once the water gets past the shingles, that 'tar paper' is full of holes and accidental tears from the install.....

BUT the stuff I see on occasional TV and computer adds seems to be much better and made of what looks like a plastic of some sort, they advertise all sorts of very bright colors WITCH makes me think of my ideal 'WHITE'....

The underlayment is a moisture barrier between the shingles and the roof sheathing (plywood). Necessary or dew point will rot out the sheathing.
Think of it as Tyvek for the roof. Matter of fact Dupont (Tyvek) makes a roof underlayment paper that is very popular.

Back in the day we all used tar paper in either 15 or 40 LB. The new synthetics are much better because they withstand the weather better during dry-in before the roofing goes on.

Of course Peel & Stick is the best option. It doesn't require fasteners like the paper/synthetics and should you lose any roofing the peel and stick will stay attached to the decking and keep the roof dry...in theory.

[6spdC6]

The underlayment is a moisture barrier between the shingles and the roof sheathing (plywood). Necessary or dew point will rot out the sheathing.
Think of it as Tyvek for the roof. Matter of fact Dupont (Tyvek) makes a roof underlayment paper that is very popular.

Back in the day we all used tar paper in either 15 or 40 LB. The new synthetics are much better because they withstand the weather better during dry-in before the roofing goes on.

Of course Peel & Stick is the best option. It doesn't require fasteners like the paper/synthetics and should you lose any roofing the peel and stick will stay attached to the decking and keep the roof dry...in theory.

Up north we use a product its common name is ice guard. Comes in very handy for those bad spots. Its a bit pricey but does a good job.

"Ice and water protectors (sometimes called ice and snow shields in cold climates) are made with polymer-modified bitumen." Quoted from google!

[LATB]

Up north we use a product its common name is ice guard. Comes in very handy for those bad spots. Its a bit pricey but does a good job.

"Ice and water protectors (sometimes called ice and snow shields in cold climates) are made with polymer-modified bitumen." Quoted from google!

That's the same as "Peel & Stick".
In florida the roofing code seems to change after every storm.
I believe the current code required for underlayment is 2 layers of felt (tar paper) or synthetic paper or peel & stick at the eaves and a 4"/6" strip of peel & stick over all the plywood joints.

[Big bob]

The underlayment is a moisture barrier between the shingles and the roof sheathing (plywood). Necessary or dew point will rot out the sheathing.
Think of it as Tyvek for the roof. Matter of fact Dupont (Tyvek) makes a roof underlayment paper that is very popular.

Back in the day we all used tar paper in either 15 or 40 LB. The new synthetics are much better because they withstand the weather better during dry-in before the roofing goes on.

Of course Peel & Stick is the best option. It doesn't require fasteners like the paper/synthetics and should you lose any roofing the peel and stick will stay attached to the decking and keep the roof dry...in theory.


Still waiting for the possible cluster **** when it's time to replace. Might not be near as happy.:dance:

[LATB]

Still waiting for the possible cluster **** when it's time to replace. Might not be near as happy.:dance:

I actually spoke to my roofer about that. They leave the peel & stick and apply another layer of it over before the new roofing. :seasix:

You are not removing the peel and stick from the deck without delaminating the plywood.

[vettemed]

I actually spoke to my roofer about that. They leave the peel & stick and apply another layer of it over before the new roofing. :seasix:

You are not removing the peel and stick from the deck without delaminating the plywood.

Yep. Second layer of peel & stick was added to my roof. I wonder how many times that can be done before it's got to be removed.

[LATB]

Yep. Second layer of peel & stick was added to my roof. I wonder how many times that can be done before it's got to be removed.

Not sure and I won’t be around to find out on my house. Hell I may not have to replace the roof in my lifetime. :Jeff '79:

I do believe that “roof over” is now unacceptable in Florida. I can’t speak about multiple layers of the P&S.

[Big bob]

I actually spoke to my roofer about that. They leave the peel & stick and apply another layer of it over before the new roofing. :seasix:

You are not removing the peel and stick from the deck without delaminating the plywood.


Not liking that I want to be able to see any damages and fix them. Not hope for the best.:leaving:

[coralbandit]

Many times in warm hot areas shingle seal to the peel and stick. They do not come off, or at least the half that touches the ICW.
A good roofer would lay the synthetic or old school tar paper over the ice and water shield so the old roof can be removed properly.
The origin of tar paper was so shingles would not stick to the deck and require replacement when shingles went bad.
Too few 'caring/qualified' roofers have spoken to this issue.

[Big bob]

Are you the same bandit that does that amazing roofing? We could use more actual doers. We have more than our fair share of pointers and wannabes. :hurray:

[GrandSportC3]

Let's say for the sake of argument the smallest one is valued at $250k. What savings are evident for you if the SOB burns down?

I'll take my chances. As I said, Insurance companies would not be in business if the odds were in favor of the customer.

[6spdC6]

Are you the same bandit that does that amazing roofing? We could use more actual doers. We have more than our fair share of pointers and wannabes. :hurray:

He is good, I have seen some of his work!:hurray:

[coralbandit]

Are you the same bandit that does that amazing roofing? We could use more actual doers. We have more than our fair share of pointers and wannabes. :hurray:

I am~!
My most recently completed job just finished last week.

They'll be showing my first place International award winning roof next week on TV when they air the Belmont from Saratoga.:kimblair:

[Steve_R]

I'll take my chances. As I said, Insurance companies would not be in business if the odds were in favor of the customer.

You’re clearly an expert on statistics and probability.

[Big bob]

You’re clearly an expert on statistics and probability.


Coming from the North Wind scamming swamp boy.:yaddy::rofl:


103571

[GrandSportC3]

You’re clearly an expert on statistics and probability.

It doesn't take statistics to understand that insurance companies wouldn't stay in business if the odds were in the customers favor.

[Steve_R]

It doesn't take statistics to understand that insurance companies wouldn't stay in business if the odds were in the customers favor.

Insurance companies care about population statistics and probability. You care about individual statistics and probability. Huge difference between those. As an expert in statistics you should know that.

[CarGoBRRRRR]

Rising interest rates and economic uncertainty might slow down the market a bit, but Florida's strong demand, great weather, and influx of new residents often keep prices stable.

In 2022, I needed to sell my house quickly and ended up selling my house for cash (https://www.thepropertybuyingcompany.co.uk/cash-house-buyers/). It was a smooth process and really helped me avoid the hassle of a traditional sale, especially in an unpredictable market.

[LATB]

Many times in warm hot areas shingle seal to the peel and stick. They do not come off, or at least the half that touches the ICW.
A good roofer would lay the synthetic or old school tar paper over the ice and water shield so the old roof can be removed properly.
The origin of tar paper was so shingles would not stick to the deck and require replacement when shingles went bad.
Too few 'caring/qualified' roofers have spoken to this issue.

That may be a side benefit, but the purpose of roofing underlayment (15 lb felt, 40 lb felt, synthetic, peel & stick, etc) is a moisture barrier. Without the moisture barrier dew point condensation will destroy the roof sheathing.

[Raazor]

That may be a side benefit, but the purpose of roofing underlayment (15 lb felt, 40 lb felt, synthetic, peel & stick, etc) is a moisture barrier. Without the moisture barrier dew point condensation will destroy the roof sheathing.

terrific

[LATB]

terrific

So glad you approve. It’s nice to see my contribution appreciated. :D

[Raazor]

So glad you approve. It’s nice to see my contribution appreciated. :D

Who said I approve?!?

:spider::spider::kick:

[LATB]

Who said I approve?!?

:spider::spider::kick:

I assumed “terrific” was an approval. If I need to submit additional information to garner your approval please let me know. :seasix:

[Raazor]

I assumed “terrific” was an approval. If I need to submit additional information to garner your approval please let me know. :seasix:

I'll send a courier right over. ;)