Death spiral for cars. By 2030, you probably won’t own one

[Fasglas]

Hmmmm... 2030 isn't far away.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/death-spiral-for-cars-by-2030-you-probably-wont-own-one-93626/

Excerpt:

By 2030, you probably won’t own a car, but you may get a free trip with your morning coffee. Transport-As-A-Service will use only electric vehicles and will upend two trillion-dollar industries. It’s the death spiral for cars.

A major new report predicts that by 2030, the overwhelming majority of consumers will no longer own a car – instead they will use on-demand electric autonomous vehicles.

By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs), the report says, 95 per cent of all US passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand, autonomous, electric vehicles that will be owned by fleets rather than individuals.

The provision of this service may come virtually free as part of another offering, or a corporate sponsorship. Imagine, for instance, paying a token sum for a ride into town after buying a latte for $4.50. Or getting a free ride because the local government has decided to make transport easier.

Long article. More at link.

[tjfontaine]

Not buying it ....

See previous articles about how we all will be using flying cars by now.

[Millenium Vette]

I don't think so

[boracayjohnny]

Too soon for everyone to give up their cars. Maybe in a 100 years but not in 13.

[Stangkiller]

Too soon for everyone to give up their cars. Maybe in a 100 years but not in 13.

The price cars are quickly outpacing the incomes of many young workers, it's silly to have a depreciating asset sitting in a garage 95% of the time either at work or at home. I honestly believe Transport as a service is about to become far more mainstream in our lifetime.

[SQUIRMIN VERMIN 84]

Social engineers and technology heavies have been trying to turn us out of our cars and into busses and trains etc for a long time.

Independence?

They take it for granted we all WANT this bullshit. Just because it could
be done doesn't mean it should be done. Trains, busses all stop at terminals,
not at each person's final destination. Busses and trains give you ONE seat-no room
for shopping or sporting equipment. Our personal cars are the one
venue of travel that meet our desire to go when and where we want to go and
what we desire to bring with us.

Not wait around for a govt car to show up. Can you imagine the true cost of
all this? Just more socialism and state mandates in our lives.
Land of the free? Freedom of movement? Give more power over our lives
to the government? Just more dependent sheep...

[mrvette]

The only smart financial move I have made is keeping the '72 vette, for the amount of driving I do anymore, it sets in the garage for daze on end, I drove it Friday to the store to pick up 6 12 packs of Coke Cola.....wife/son use it for work drinks....errands like that total distance 2 miles......90f outside, engine never turned on the fan.....:lol:

there was a car show last weekend, but no go, rain at show site, but of COURSE not hardly a damn DROP on MY lawn.....

:issues:

[RedLS1GTO]

So the title...

"By 2030, you probably won’t own a car"

The way I interpret is that the article is directed at ALL driving age Americans. The word "probably" would imply a majority.

The people that are on this site, yea, we'll probably own cars throughout our lives but looking at cities, etc, I wouldn't be all that surprised if on paper the majority of Americans didn't have a car registered in their name 13 years from now... which would make the article technically correct in the OWNERSHIP aspect, although I think that autonomous electric blah blah blah part of it is pretty far fetched and has no chance of being implemented to that scale in the time period given. To be fair, I have no idea what the percentage of owners is today.

Hell, we have 5 cars and since they are all in my name (for no good reason at all)on paper my wife does not "own" a car. When I was growing up 16 was THE big day. That's when you could drive. Now? Not so much from what I see. I know quite a few kids of that age that couldn't care less about even getting a license, much less working to actually buy a car. As much as we may not like to admit it, the times they are a changin'.

[Mike Mercury]

this reads like a socialists "dream land".

Also... we'll be walkin' together by the river - everybody singing and laughing.

[Iron Chef]

Australian business flyer...circulation of 14,000. MMmmmmm........no.

[DAB]

most of my miles are driven back and forth to haul water for the house. they going to dispatch a 2500 chevy every time? or how about if i want to see my parents in wyoming? 2 day drive.

not going to happen.

[Jasper711]

Similar analysis by these 'scientists' could conclude we are all going to be eating seaweed, because it is cheap and can provide protein.

However, I will continue to pay more for steak now and then.

[DAB]

every day, around this time of day, i drive a mile to check the mail.

pretty sure this service would not accommodate my schedule wishes.

[vetteman9368]

The price cars are quickly outpacing the incomes of many young workers, it's silly to have a depreciating asset sitting in a garage 95% of the time either at work or at home. I honestly believe Transport as a service is about to become far more mainstream in our lifetime.

Not in mine

[polarbear]

Hmmmm... 2030 isn't far away.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/death-spiral-for-cars-by-2030-you-probably-wont-own-one-93626/

Excerpt:



Long article. More at link.

I see two sides to this.

1. Urban Millennials are less likely to own a car than previous generations for two obvious reasons. 1. "Urban," and 2. They can't afford one. For the first time in memory, more 18-34 yr olds live at home than use any other living arrangement.

2. Millennials are also less likely to own a home than any generation in the previous 40 years. Part of that has to do with the low number of married couples, and an even lower number of millennials with children.

Millennials | Pew Research Center (http://www.pewresearch.org/topics/millennials/)

On the flip side, the urban migration that started/accelerated during the housing market crash seems to have reversed itself. Suburbs and sunbelts have made a strong comeback and that, amongst other things, dictate automobile ownership.

Americans moving to suburbs rather than cities - Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/americans-moving-to-suburbs-rather-than-cities-2016-3)

[mrvette]

I see two sides to this.

1. Urban Millennials are less likely to own a car than previous generations for two obvious reasons. 1. "Urban," and 2. They can't afford one. For the first time in memory, more 18-34 yr olds live at home than use any other living arrangement.

2. Millennials are also less likely to own a home than any generation in the previous 40 years. Part of that has to do with the low number of married couples, and an even lower number of millennials with children.

Millennials | Pew Research Center (http://www.pewresearch.org/topics/millennials/)

On the flip side, the urban migration that started/accelerated during the housing market crash seems to have reversed itself. Suburbs and sunbelts have made a strong comeback and that, amongst other things, dictate automobile ownership.

Americans moving to suburbs rather than cities - Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/americans-moving-to-suburbs-rather-than-cities-2016-3)

I clicked on your last link there, and started to read, and some stupid pop up said I was using an add blocker, of course......and gave me no choice but to just click off the site/close the tab....DAMN if they getting any info from me, much less asking for a buck (ONE DOLLAR) to click on their super valuable article.....the folks that run that site are dumb as a box of rox.....

nor your fault, but I find it amusing.......

:lol:

[Stangkiller]

Not in mine

Your Escalade will wear out from age before the actual miles become an issue. If you had a way to take advantage of the downtime on your car and rack up some more miles but get paid for them, wouldn't you consider it?

[RedLS1GTO]

Your Escalade will wear out from age before the actual miles become an issue. If you had a way to take advantage of the downtime on your car and rack up some more miles but get paid for them, wouldn't you consider it?

I know it wasn't directed at me but I'm not quite following where that question is headed. Are you suggesting that he Uber Escalade?

Peraonally, with the exception of the "toys" I tend mileage out cars before I age them out. Most that I have gotten rid of for reasons of being worn out have been well over 200k. My old '99 Yukon just turned 340k with it's new owner. :)

[Cybercowboy]

This has slightly more chance of coming true than the UBI trope I see a lot. That is the one that AI and automation associated with artificial intelligence will mean we need a universal basic income for everyone, and that work hours will need to be rationed so that there is something for everyone to do. Obama was even talking about this stuff last week in Italy.

Thing is, it doesn't make historical sense. Look at all the automation we have now compared to 100 years ago. Now look at all the jobs/professions that didn't exist 100 years ago. Computer programmer, health insurance agent, carbon fiber manufacturer, the list goes on and on. With further automation and the refinement of AI, you'll see the same sort of thing happen. 100 years from now there will be entire category of professions that we can't even imagine.

[DAB]

Somebody has to make sawdust. :DAB:

[99 pewtercoupe]

Somebody has to make sawdust. :DAB:

.

[DAB]

.

:toetap:

now look, that may be efficient as all get out, but you'll never get the blood and sweat incorporated into your work like you do with my stuff.

yup, i'm officially "redundant" as they say in Britain. :slap::DAB:

[Dave]

Flying cars are coming soon, too.

[SQUIRMIN VERMIN 84]

Flying cars are coming soon, too.

That should be exciting. Most of our population can't even parallel park!

But gubbmint AI controlled planes will fix that! And a good EMP will reduce the population even more....

[Stangkiller]

I know it wasn't directed at me but I'm not quite following where that question is headed. Are you suggesting that he Uber Escalade?

Peraonally, with the exception of the "toys" I tend mileage out cars before I age them out. Most that I have gotten rid of for reasons of being worn out have been well over 200k. My old '99 Yukon just turned 340k with it's new owner. :)

The scenario in the original post is related to self driving cars, why not mileage the crap out of it when you're not using it. My last two Chevy trucks were sold at 200k miles it wasn't the miles but the aged plastics interior and truck like driving characteristics that really pushed me to get rid of them. "Help" others not be wasteful by having such opulent luxuries sitting unused in a garage all day.

[Dave]

The price cars are quickly outpacing the incomes of many young workers, it's silly to have a depreciating asset sitting in a garage 95% of the time either at work or at home. I honestly believe Transport as a service is about to become far more mainstream in our lifetime.

Personally, I don't see it happening.
Unless
a) cars are taught how to drive like assholes, rather than driving per a set of rules
OR
b) we spend trillions on duplicate infrastructure to isolate self-driving cars from the non-self-driving
OR
c) we designate entire zones of the country (small zones though, like limits within a city, similar to what London has for low-emission zones)

We will never see an overwhelming number of self-driving cars.

[C5SilverBullet]

Not buying it ....

See previous articles about how we all will be using flying cars by now.

:iagree:

[DAB]

The scenario in the original post is related to self driving cars, why not mileage the crap out of it when you're not using it. My last two Chevy trucks were sold at 200k miles it wasn't the miles but the aged plastics interior and truck like driving characteristics that really pushed me to get rid of them. "Help" others not be wasteful by having such opulent luxuries sitting unused in a garage all day.

huh?

so you want .gov telling you or me how to spend money I earned? sounds like Cuba. they ration everything.

"oh no Mr. Brinkman, you don't need a chevy 2500 truck, or more than one pair of shoes, or a gas lawn mower, or more than 6 forks....."

where does it stop?

jewelry? the ultimate in useless luxury and "wasted" money.

[VatorMan]

Personally, I think of rented vehicles as appliances. They never have what I want in them and I'm scared of what the asshole that was in it before me left somewhere.

So now I'm supposed to share a vehicle with people I want nothing to do with ? Remember the Seinfeld Body Odor episode. :ack:

[TripleBlack]

I clicked on your last link there, and started to read, and some stupid pop up said I was using an add blocker, of course......and gave me no choice but to just click off the site/close the tab....DAMN if they getting any info from me, much less asking for a buck (ONE DOLLAR) to click on their super valuable article.....the folks that run that site are dumb as a box of rox.....

nor your fault, but I find it amusing.......

:lol:

This is a pet peeve of mine too. Don't know if it's available for FireFox or Explorer (or what ever MS calls it now...) but there is an extension for Chrome called "Behind the Overlay" that beats most of these. It puts an icon on the browser you can click that dismisses the overlay without a click. It works on the "Please log in" Facebook pop up and most others although a few sites won't scroll after invoking it.

It works like a champ on the site above.

I use it several times daily.