Stocks & Oil & All That Fun Stuff

[Jeff '79]

The S&P closed exactly 12% from it's top of 2132. yay! Who woulda thunk it??

I'm thinking that by next Friday, it will have dropped 15%+ and it'll be time to jump back in.
A huge buying opportunity is almost upon us. One which happens twice a year if you're lucky.
Stare into the face of fear next week and laugh at it.
Everyone loves a 15% off sale.

[simpleman68]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

The S&P closed exactly 12% from it's top of 2132. yay! Who woulda thunk it??

I'm thinking that by next Friday, it will have dropped 15%+ and it'll be time to jump back in.
A huge buying opportunity is almost upon us. One which happens twice a year if you're lucky.
Stare into the face of fear next week and laugh at it.
Everyone loves a 15% off sale.

I'm hoping so. I've stayed half cash for a bit but am still recovering from a slight DIS spanking.
Scott

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by simpleman68

I'm hoping so. I've stayed half cash for a bit but am still recovering from a slight DIS spanking.
Scott

The market is pricing in a 1% rate increase and it's time for a breather.
Nothing goes straight up, and so far, the upward trend is still intact.
It could drop 20% from it's high but I'm good jumping back in at 15%.

[simpleman68]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

The market is pricing in a 1% rate increase and it's time for a breather.
Nothing goes straight up, and so far, the upward trend is still intact.
It could drop 20% from it's high but I'm good jumping back in at 15%.

I would have ridden it out longer but I made too short a call on my options.
I knew it was a risky play but used a chunk of funds we take some longs shots with.

I earned the bad call brick for this one.
Scott

[CertInsaneC5]

Originally Posted by NeedSpeed

Gas here is down to about $1.55.

Check this out:

There will be chaos: Big Oil’s collapse and the birth of a new world order - Salon.com

And this:

Fund manager who?s been right on oil has a depressing new prediction

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by CertInsaneC5

And this:

Fund manager who?s been right on oil has a depressing new prediction

Excellent article.

The greed of the world wide oil companies is driving this and the blinders are on. Many of you disagreed with me and said that the drop in oil is bad for the economy. I would agree with you if the greed of the industry weren't driving the bus.
In the short term, it's great for the consumer, however, if the corporate greed continues, it will hurt the economy and many consumers that work for in the oil sector.
Two very telling paragraphs from the article:

"In fact, he said, “we’ve been thinking for a while that there’s a perverse incentive to keep drilling even while prices are falling … particularly when you’re sitting on a lot of debt.”

"What could cause producers to throw in the towel? A major bankruptcy or series of bankruptcies of deeply indebted energy companies, which becomes more and more likely as prices drop.

IMO, the markets are setting up for a wonderful buying opportunity; one which I've been waiting , for over 2 years.
Here we go again.. The internet boom and crash, the real estate "boom" and crash. It's time to buy when fear is at it's greatest and we are almost there.

[CertInsaneC5]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Excellent article.

IMO, the markets are setting up for a wonderful buying opportunity; one which I've been waiting , for over 2 years.
Here we go again.. The internet boom and crash, the real estate "boom" and crash. It's time to buy when fear is at it's greatest and we are almost there.

I am going to wait at least another month before jumping in. Possibly two, no more than that. If I miss a little bit of the bottom. No big deal. I see big moves coming this summer and fall.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by CertInsaneC5

I am going to wait at least another month before jumping in. Possibly two, no more than that. If I miss a little bit of the bottom. No big deal. I see big moves coming this summer and fall.

I go by percentages and use the S&P

1918 was 10% . That is a correction by definition
1876 is 12% . That's where it is now
1812 is 15% . That's max pain for most hedge funds and amateurs
1705 is 20%. Bear market territory. Will it get there? Possibly, but doubtful.
As it's somewhat impossible to call the high or low, I'm comfortable getting back in at a 15% discount. I can stomach another 5% if it decides to go down 20%. Greed ruins many investing decisions and to be greedy and attempt another 5% grab is one's own personal decision. Ask me how I know. Live, and hopefully, learn sooner than later,

If it drops more than 20%, everyone will be basically stuck in a holding pattern until it goes back up. Even though past performance is not an indication of future performance, history tells me that these sharp declines occur very quickly and if you get caught with your hands in your pockets, opportunity is lost.
That's how I approach it. Is it rational? I think so.


Did Thomas say something about a vagina?

[CertInsaneC5]

At any other time I would agree with you. But the whole China panic thing is not over yet. That is the reason I will wait. If not for that I would be jumping in at 12-15%.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by CertInsaneC5

At any other time I would agree with you. But the whole China panic thing is not over yet. That is the reason I will wait. If not for that I would be jumping in at 12-15%.

Anything is certainly possible...
The US economy is fine, but stocks were just over valued. I don't see the US economy going down the chitter anytime soon, so it's gotta stop somewhere soon.
China can go suck eggs and starve for all I care.
It seems like another paradigm shift is afoot.

[Rob]

Originally Posted by CertInsaneC5

At any other time I would agree with you. But the whole China panic thing is not over yet. That is the reason I will wait. If not for that I would be jumping in at 12-15%.

China is screwed. All of their value is in overdeveloped cities with no buyers and with the environmental disaster looming over there, they are set up for a massive loss of population in the next 20 years.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Dixievet

China is screwed. All of their value is in overdeveloped cities with no buyers and with the environmental disaster looming over there, they are set up for a massive loss of population in the next 20 years.

[CertInsaneC5]

Originally Posted by Dixievet

China is screwed. All of their value is in overdeveloped cities with no buyers and with the environmental disaster looming over there, they are set up for a massive loss of population in the next 20 years.

The investors are just starting to understand this though. Expect a few more "corrections" to happen in the wake of their opening of their eyes. This and a few other things are why I wait.

[polarbear]

That is one fugly chart of the S&P 500.

From around 1800, there isn't a lot of support until 1400. MACD sez it's still a sell.

Brent Crude.

Last meaningful support @ $30. Below that- the abyss.

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by polarbear

That is one fugly chart of the S&P 500.

From around 1800, there isn't a lot of support until 1400. MACD sez it's still a sell.

Brent Crude.

Last meaningful support @ $30. Below that- the abyss.

If 1815 doesn't hold, look out below.
I'm betting it will.

[Giraffe (He/Him)]

So, is gas gonna keep dropping or what? I don't understand the 'depressing new prediction.'

[Jeff '79]

Originally Posted by Thomas

So, is gas gonna keep dropping or what? I don't understand the 'depressing new prediction.'

Yes

[polarbear]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

If 1815 doesn't hold, look out below.
I'm betting it will.

I'd normaly ask "stops in place?" but in this kind of market that may or may not keep you out of trouble.

I'm in "wait and see" mode.

[Jeff '79]

Iran orders a 500,000 barrel per day increase in oil production now that the sanctions have been lifted.
Can you say glut?
For them, something is better than nothing at this point.

[VITE1]

Originally Posted by Jeff '79

Iran orders a 500,000 barrel per day increase in oil production now that the sanctions have been lifted.
Can you say glut?
For them, something is better than nothing at this point.

It also helps destabilize Saudi Arabia and hurst the American economy.
Plus its payback to the Chinese for supporting the Nuclear deal.